Ten Furlongs

7 Days

2009-04-24T14:30:00.002-06:00

The 2009 Kentucky Derby can't get here any faster. Contenders are dropping fast. In the last month we have seen Old Fashioned, The Pamplemousse get sidelined by injures. Now the Quarter Crack of Quality Road is acting up again. It was nice to see Advice run a big Lexington last week he was in my very early list of contenders and many of them are still pointing to the Triple Crown Races, even Gone Astray might get to the Preakness with a big Withers Run.

Simply Zensational

2009-02-25T22:37:00.002-06:00

While the talk of racing is Dunkirk. Zensational's performance on Saturday was even better blowing a 1:08 and 3/5 on the fake dirt and galloping out like a beast. Next up the San Felipe possibly. Remember Congaree had one start as a 2 year and then won a mile race 8.5 furlongs and then Wood. Zensational had one race as a 2 year old. Broke his maiden. Next start he will be the lone speed in the San Felipe and then either the Wood the the Coolmore Lexington?

Top 10:

Imperial Council

Zensational

Break Water Edison

Pioneerof The Nile

Capt. Candyman Can

I Want Revenge

Advice

Gone Astray

Dunkirk

West Side Bernie

San Rafael

2009-01-15T20:15:00.003-06:00

Square Eddie's return off a 83 day layoff highlights this year's San Rafael. A competitive field is shaping up with some recent maiden winner's moving up in class. Square Eddie has been training steadily since late December and his recent 6 furlong workout last weekend should have him on edge to fire a strong race off the bench. With synthetic experience at Keeneland and at the Breeder's Cup, the surface should pose no problem for Eddie. Graded Earnings are not needed for Square Eddie, so don't look for an all-out effort. With Smart Strike and El Gran Senor in the pedigree he should be able handled the distance easily and he has enough tactical speed to stay behind, to what could be a very contested pace.

The Pamplemousse had a nice maiden win last out, finishing strong after running close to the pace and setting fast fractions. Alex Solis stays aboard and cuts back to one mile with a nice 3 furlong bullet this week to ratchet that speed.

The horse that may be a little over played is Brother Keith. He definitely is a horse to watch following his maiden win last fall. But off the layoff, on a new surface, against horses with multiple races, he will have to be much the best and may not be ready for this level.

Fiddler's Afleet ships in from New York, seems to have tactical speed and with the Quiet American and Afleet blood, may like the synthetic surface, a quick turn of foot, if he can rate at all, he may run further than people think.

There is a lot of speed in this race. The pace should be contested. If Square Eddie can lay 5 to 6 lengths off the contested pace, he should be able to use his foundation and grinding speed to pick up the pieces down the lane.

Dixie Belle:

Silver City figures to be a short price in an evenly matched field at Oaklawn Park. Shipping in from the Fairgrounds with some nice recent workouts. If he takes to the track, he should be able to come 3 to 4 lengths off the pace and make his run.

Spot Play:

My spot play of the weekend is at the Fairgrounds Saturday. Dumar and Coal Baron are both over 5-1 morning lines. I will bet both to win.

RedBoarding the LeComte

2009-01-11T17:53:00.002-06:00

A busy week on the Derby trail. Here are some observations on a Sunday night.

The LeComte was a strangely run race. Friesan Fire who's morning line was 6/1 was bet down to 5/2 based on some nice numbers on the Thorograph Sheets. The race was not run to form. Au Moon who had closed into a hot pace in his maiden win at Churchill Downs took the lead at the start and had to work to get rid of Citizen down the backstretch. At this point Friesan Fire was in 3rd place.

On the turn Firesan Fire who refused to rate in his last race, swung out and with all the closers laying too far back was given a three length lead at the top of the stretch and was never challenged late.

The fractions were slow 24 and 48 3/5 with 1:13 and change for the 6 furlongs time. I'm not sure if Friesan Fire improved, or was just able to lay off the pace. When a stretch runner is on the lead for the first time like Au Moon, the results are usually not good for that horse.

Firesan Fire should be able to keep on improving being by A.P. Indy. The Dehere on the male side adds some speed. His form is flattering those of Breakwater Edison and Hello Broadway who both defeated him in the Nashua.

Patena rated nicely and closed well. But never really quickened, if they are trying to rate the horse he may have a little room for improvement.

The mystery horse is still Indygo Mountain. As much promise as he showed in his Churchill Downs start, he broke slow and then never got involved at all. I'm not sure how well intended he as in this spot. If we works out in the next 7 days he's probably healthy and the race is a throw-out. If it takes 10 days or so to get back on the track, he may start running short of time to develop his conditioning level.

Ken McPeek:

For those unfamiliar withy Ken McPeek, you better start noticing. He has developed into one of the top trainers in the country. This past week he turned out 3 very nice looking 3 year olds. Theregoesjojo defeated the nice horses in Quality Road and Obligingly. Don't discount Quality Road, Alan Garcia got into a tenacious duel with Obligingly for three calls. Both horses may have gotten a lot out of that race. Depending on how much time off they get both may need a month off after that hard, grueling effort.

Big Country took a rail trip and patient ride from Kent Desourmeaux to a win on Thursday at Gulfstream.

Danger to Society made it two for two with a nice win on the split have of the allowance race on Thursday. The Danger to Society race was much more impressive for Danger to Society than Big Country win. Idol Maker took the lead and was dogged most of the way around the track, Idol Maker may need a sprint race to develop some of that speed. He has started out his career with 3 straight routes.

Right now I would rank the McPeek runners. JoJo, Danger to Society and then Big Country.

Meanwhile out West Bob Baffer had a horse (Turk) at 2/5 who was nipped on the wire by a solid colt at 7 furlongs trained by Dick Mandella.

I'm surprised at trainers running their horses at 7 furlongs. Both Turk and Quality Road are quality movers, both set tremendous fractions, and both suffered losses late in the stretch after setting rapid fractions for 6 furlongs. In general the 7 furlong races are very demanding. When you lose them, they left a lot on the track and did not get the win. I would point Quality Road to the Gotham and possibly a rider switch. Alan Garcia has Break Water Edison, Charitable Man, Quality Road all lined up as possible rides.

Workouts:

Getting back on the Work Tab last week was Shug's very nice colt Imperial Council who worked out twice on the week. On the shelf since late summer, looks like he still about 3 works away from a race.

Still Absent from the Workout Tab? Charitable Man, Gone Astray. Also Point Encounter has not worked out since his win on December 26th at Santa Anita. When horses start going 15 days away from working out in January it's not a good sign.

Racing Schedule:

Here is the latest Break down on some of the early season targets:

Next Saturday in the San Rafael. Bobby Frankel thrown maiden winner Brother Keith into the fire against Square Eddie who has been working nicely out west. Expect a small field in the San Rafael.

Break Water Edison and Hello Broadway will be matched up possibly for the third time in the Hutcheson on January 30th. Watching them develop over the next 3 months could be something, both have a strong bottom, nice trainers and recent workouts. Maybe Imperial Council or will Shug try to point for a NW of 2 at Gulfstream

Big Drama is going to crank it up on January 31st in the Holy Bull and possibly West Side Bernie?

Risen Star next for Firesan Fire, Southwest Stakes will get Old Fashioned.

Silver City is pointing for the Dixie Belle this Friday at Oaklawn.

Speed Figure Progression in Kentucky Derby Starters

2009-01-08T18:04:00.005-06:00

The progression of speed figures as horses lead up to the Kentucky Derby gained greater scrutiny in recent years, most of that discussion has centered on a certain crop being "slow" or how many horses have earned 100+ Beyer Speed figures going into the Derby.

"Beyer" speed figures were introduced into past performances for the Kentucky Derby for the first time in 1992. Beyer speed figures have generated lots of online discussions the past few years. Some of those discussions focus on "Synthetic" figures are too low, a second concern has been that Beyer speed figures do not account for pace. The third issue has been that some figures are arbitrarily adjusted to a projected speed figure, if the number does not appear to be in-line with other performances. A 4th issue has been Beyer re-adjusting speed figures at a later date ala Summer Doldrums a few years back when he subsequently did not re-produce a high figure in his next few starts.

For purposes of Speed Figure Progression in developing three year olds, and specifically three year olds who later make the Kenttucky Derby Starting gate, I will only focus on the number that was posted in the Daily Racing Form.

Many different theories have been proposed about speed figure development, the "bounce" theory, pairing or matching a high speed figure and then regressing in the next start. To start the discussion I wanted to get some of the basic data into a spreadsheet and start looking at some of the numbers. This is hopefully the first in the series of analysis of Speed Figure Development that hopefully I can combine Breeding and age of the horse later into a more thorough analysis of Speed Figure progression.

Since I have no pre-conceived ideas of what the average speed figure is a for a Derby Starter and what that progression has been in the past, I needed to develop some guidelines to start the discussion.

First, since I have every horse who has started in the Kentucky Derby in a Database since 1970. I then isolated every Kentucky Derby Starter since 1992 the year Beyer speed figures were introduced into the Past Perforance lines. I then entered every speed figure for every horse, start by start into an excel spreadsheet. Example Big Brown last year got enered as 90, 106, 106. In his first lifetime start he ran a "90" Beyer, in his 2nd and 3rd lifetime start he ran 106 Beyers. I entered this for every horse who has started in the Derby since 1992. For horses who race 3 1/2 or 4 furlong races, or races in Europe when they do not have a speed figure, I left that start number blank.

Here are the results for the Average Speed Figure obtained by all Kentucky Derby Starters since 1992:

1st Start: 69.31

2nd Start: 78.95

3rd Start: 82.74

4th Start: 85.69

5th Start: 88.85

6th Start: 90.70

7th Start: 91.80

8th Start: 93.67

9th Start: 93.16

There is a steady progression and improvement for Beyer speed figures in each start up until the 9th start, for all Derby Starters since 1992. I would not have expected the steady upward swing since this encompasses 16 years of racing and over 280 starters at over 30 racetracks on Dirt, Turf and Synthetic surfaces. Notice the big improvement in 2nd time starters from First Time Starters in this group of starters, nearly a 9 point increase in the average speed figure.

Since Averages can be tilted by high or low numbers in a small group of horses, I then had excel calculate the median for each start number. The median is calculated as half the speed figures being over a certain number and half being under a number and can smooth out the high and low speed figures.

1st Start: 70

2nd Start: 80

3rd Start: 84

4th Start: 88

5th Start: 90

6th Start: 93

7th Start: 93

8th Start: 94

9th Start: 92

What's interesting here is that the median is actually a little higher in the 6th, 7th, 8th start than the average. This is logical in that we are working with a specific subset of horses, which is Kentucky Derby Starters, a horse cannot reach the gate without being competitive at a certain speed against a high class of horse. The 2nd explanation is that horses could possibly being starting to peak or gain more consistency after 4 or 5 races. A more cynical analyst could suggest that the "Beyer Boys" are projecting high speed figures for these races and the monster feeds itself. That will be looked at in the future, for now we are sticking with the facts.

Let's take a look at the Max Speed figures by start since 1992. This will show which start number horses have popped some pretty impressive "Beyers". I will also put a "face" to some of the numbers by listing the horse who achieved that figure in that Career Start Number.

1st: 107 - Pulpit in 1997 blew away a maiden field at Gulfstream Park by 7 lengths

2nd: 108- Pulpit blazed again in his 2nd lifetime start at Gulfstream going 1 mile and 16th

3rd: 112 - Indian Charlie in 1998 one mile allowance race at Santa Anita

4th: 111 - Indian Charlie in the Santa Anita Derby in his 4th lifetime Start

5th: 120 - Bellamy Road freaking in the wood in 2005

6th: 114 - Unbrided's Song in the Florida Derby in 1996.

A few observations about these six high speed figures. All four of the horses above were Kentucky Derby Favorites, all four of the horses lost. Did they peak too soon?

Secondly all four were virtual wire to wire winners. Can a closer obtain a high speed figure? Do horses freak on the front end?

Now that we have seen some of the Fastest horses by career start number. Let's take a look at some of the horses who took longer to develop.

Sweetnorthernsaint started his career with a "12" speed figure in his debut.

Real Quiet earned a 74 in his 2nd start

War Emblem a 83 in his 3rd lifetime outing

Lawyer Ron earned a 84 in his 4th career start

Eventually with a separate subset of starters we could compare Kentucky Derby Starters against other 3 year olds, or a group of 4 year olds. Many studies could be broken into sub groups to determine any types of speed figure progression as a horse matures on the road to Kentucky.

Let's take a look at some recent maiden winners and compare them to horses in the past with similar Speed Figures. Opening day at Santa Anita Point Encounter earned a "Beyer" speed figure of 94.

Since 1992 14 horses have debuted with a Beyer speed figure of 94 or higher and reached the starting gate. Again we can only look at the horses who achieved high speed early and made the starting gate, not the horses who fell by the tracks on the way to Louisville:

Below are the horse with their Debut speed figure along with their 2nd lifetime start speed figure:

Horse Debut 2nd

Liquidity 94 59

Curlin 101 97

Showing Up 97 100

Spanish Chestnut 94 84

High Fly 97 94

Birdstone 99 78

Lion Heart 96 103

Funny Cide 96 103

Fusaichi Pegasus 95 95

Pulpit 107 108

Diligence 95 91

Afternoon Deelites 99 101

Holy Bull 101 91

Disposal 97 99

Six of the 14 horses improved in their 2nd lifetime start. Two horses Fusaichi Pegasus and Funny Cide ended up winning the Kentucky Derby. It will see how Notonthesamepage progresses in his next start after earning a 115 speed figure in the Spectacular Bid Stakes last weekend.

Can any conclusions be drawn from this limited subset of numbers? I think the most surprising scenario is that there is up to a 10 point jump on average in horses 2nd lifetime start. In the future, I will revisit this study with the races being broken into what age and what time of year did they achieve these speed figures.

Since Beyer speed numbers are projected there may be a bias against lightly raced horses and many speed figures for the Maiden and Allowance races are slower than if the horse were to achieve the same final time on the same day in the same distance of race.

There may be such a thing as too fast too early, many horses will multiple high speed figures back to back, failed to produce the same effort in the Kentucky Derby itself.

Spectacular Bid and Count Fleet recap:

This past weekend marked a couple of stakes races for newly turned 3 year olds. The Spectacular Bid stakes at Gulfstream Park featured a coming out party for Notonthesamepage who absolutley freaked and ran a 1:08 and change for 6 furlongs. I was not overly impressed with the field going into the race, but Notonthesamepage was never in doubt. After working a whole in the wind for over a month in Florida, he seems to be going good and the next stop is the mile distance of the Fountain of Youth.

Todd Pletcher unveiled Checklist who ran 6 furlong in 1:10 and change in hand. Very impressive and jockey Johnny V was sitting very chilly the entire race. His development will be interesting. Todd Pletcher after many years of watching his 2 year olds burn out, has kept some of his top horses in the barn the past couple of years and waited for winter to bring them back.

Meanwhile anyone who thinks Haynesfield is going to make the Derby or even be a factor in the race may want to rethink that. A slow final time, slow fractions and weak field. Add in the Speighstown breeding and you have a nice horse, but not Kentucky material.

The LeComte:

the first Graded Stakes for Sophomores is run this weekend down in the Swamp. Past history suggests that this race is usually not a factor in determining the Kentucky Derby field. But this year does feature some very promising breeding and training connections.

Friesan Fire and Indygo mountain are both sons of A. P. Indy.

Au Moon is by Malibu Moon, who is a son of A. P. Indy

Patena has A. P. Indy as a Broodmare Sire

Dynamic For is a son of Dance Master out of Dynaformer mare.

Very strong breeding for a G3 in early January.

Indygo Mountain has recevied the most hype. His 6 length victory at Churchill Downs in November put him on many top 10 derby lists. Purchased for 600K at the Keeneland September yearling sale he closed for 2nd in his career debut. In his 2nd race he stretched out while running outside horses and galloped out very nicely for trainer Bret Calhoun. A minor setback caused him to scratch a few weeks ago in the race won by Uno Mas over Friesan Fire.

Au Moon is a very interesting horse a very nice win at a mile and 16th and now cutting back to 1 mile, he gets the speed to run at and was bet down to 12-1 in the race won by Indygo Mountain Race 2 races back finishing 10th by 16th lengths.

Dynamic Force won a turf race in his last start at the Fairgrounds. His first two races were on the synthetic surface at Woodbine, with 3 workouts since his last race and Jesse Campbell up, I expect him to run a strong race.

Patena is another Woodbine shipper, first race on Synthetic. By Seeking The Gold he may like the dirt surface. His Display win in his last race was a hard fought win over a filly Hooh Why. Three of his four lifetime races have had 10 or more horses. His seven furlong win in November was one of the more impressive performances by a Juvenile at Woodbine this fall.

I expect Indygo Mountain to win. Look for the two Canadian shippers to run very well this Saturday.

Top 20 Contenders for January 2nd

2008-12-29T20:52:00.005-06:00

The best thing about Freshman, is that they become sophomores.

With January 1st now behind us on the calendar we take a look at Ten Furlongs list of top 20 contenders as we start the month of January.

This year's crop has shown a lot more "speed" according to Beyer speed figures. A caution should be noted that many of the top speed figures have been earned in Maiden victories and Allowance races.

Old Fashioned won the Remsen Stakes in November with a speed figure of 96. In 2007 Court Vision picked up the Remsen victory with a speed figure of 76.

On the negative side. Pioneerof The Nile recorded a speed figure of 86 in the Cash Call Futurity, which was the slowest speed figure in some 20 years of the Cash Call/Hollywood Futurity.

Midshipman's win in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile earned a figure of 91. War Pass recorded a 113 in the same race in 2007.

Other top "figures" for this crop include Silver City's 101 in a Churchill Downs Allowance race. Point Encounter earning a 94 opening day at Santa Anita in a maiden win. Indygo Mountain earned a strong figure in his big Churchill Downs victory. Old Fashioned cranked out a pair of 101's as a Juvenile.

Before we take a look at my personal starting gate of 20 contenders. Let's talk about what my evaluation is going to be based on. In January I will take a longer term view, focusing on runners who either have earnings to make the starting gate, or contenders based on breeding and running style that might be able to reach the starting gate the first Saturday in May.

For the record I do not think a couple of the top contenders in Dubai are going to come back and be a factor in Kentucky. Vineyard Haven is a Florida bred. Midshipman is by Unbridled's Song and the heavy training in Dubai might jut do him in. I tend to like Regal Ransom more than those two high priced juveniles in the Sheikh's stable of contenders.

#1 Square Eddie. Square Eddie has the earnings, experience and foundation that a lot of the top contenders lack. Bred both top and bottom to get the 10 furlongs demanded by the Derby. Sire Smart Strike has sired champion Curlin and strong route turfer English Channel. Broodmare Sire El Gran Senor has a history of producing long distance horses on both the dirt and turf. Both horses have produced strong stoudt horses and seem to withstand training. With over $700,000 in career earnings he already has the money needed to reach the starting gate. The connections are solid. Doug O'Neill has been on the Derby Trail in recent years with Great Hunter and owner Paul Reddam has been down this road with Wilko and Great Hunter. With strong works already posted in December, Eddie should be fresh, fit and ready to start in January with the San Felipe on January 17th his first likely target.

#2 Belive In Hope. Graded Stakes experience as a Juvenile, has run against the best of his generation. Sire Thunder Gulch adds some distance breeding to his pedigree. His "Mama" Hope Rises was a Stakes winning sprinter. This pedigree has a good mixture of speed, toughness and solid racing experience to the starting gate. This horse is on the bubble right now. Having to scratch out of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile with a "fever". Last week it was revelaed on calracing.com by trainer Ron Ellis that the horse is still not on the work tab because of a bad "blood count". It's still early in January, so he can stay off the tab for another week or two, but in most cases if a horse is not on the workout tab by Mid January it's too late to wear roses. Owning connection Jay Em Ess stable has had some solid runners over the years including champion Declan's Moon a few years back.

#3 Break Water Edison. Solid pedigree, top connections and a "break-out" performance in the Nashua. John Kimmel has kept this son of Lemon Drop Kid in steady training since his win in the Nashua. With 4 races and 2 routes as a Juvenile owns a strong "training" edge over many top contenders in Florida. With that experience may opt to go straight into the 9 furlong Holy Bull at the end of January. But in the past Kimmel took the Tampa Bay route to the derby with a nice horse in Wheelaway.

#4 Silver City. 700K yearling has a 101 speed figure in his 3rd lifetime start and recently drilled 1 mile at the Fairgrounds. May see him in the LeComte. Very fast, but the Unbridled's Song breeding will be very tricky. Still an exciting contender who should love the Oaklawn surface and short stretch.

#5 Indygo Mountain. Strong Breeding. Impressive win at Churchill Downs. Owner guided Alysheba to the Derby victory in 1987. His maiden victory was one of the top 5 dominant maiden victories from this juvenile crop. Look for this long-strider at the Fair Grounds and Bret Calhoun tries to keep Silver City and Indygo Mountain separate in their races.

#6 Old Fashioned. Strong pedigreee, proven connections and fast speed figures. Looks to take the 2-start route to Kentucky through Oaklawn Park. Undefeated and yet to be challenged for the early lead. Larry Jones has been to 2 straight derbies with Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Son of Unbridled's Song will have to keep to a light training schedule and develop a quicker pace if he wants to stay undefeated.

#7 Imperial Council. Strong pedigree, lightly raced with only two juvenile starts. Bet down to 30-1 in Kentucky Derby Futures betting seems to be one of the few horses of this crop with the "it" factor. Recorded first workout on Monday 3 furlongs down in Florida. Has no Graded Stakes earnings. In the past Shug McGaughey has used the Wood Memorial as the final Derby prep, will he stay on the New York road? or will he throw a change up and point to the Florida Derby as the final Prep? Has defined a couple of Key Races. In his debut he broke slow and dueled for 6 1/2 furlongs with Hello Broadway. In his second race he defeated American Dance who came back to win his next start and Professor Z who was defeated by 7 lenghts to Imperial Council and came back to win 2 straight races.

#8 Idol Maker. Todd Pletcher trained. Regressed in Remsen Stakes after sharp debut at 1 mile. Pedigree figures to improve and has already recorded a workout at PMM. Earned a 80+ speed figure in his maiden win. Worked a nice 5 furlong week in the past week. Could be pointing to the Holy Full at 9 furlongs at the end of January.

#9 Regal Ransom. Forgotten about after Norfolk flop as the favorite. May not have liked polytrack surface when shipped across country gets a mulligan for that effort. Son of Distorted Humor was ultra impressive at Saratoga in his maiden win. Worked out three times in November before going to Dubai. He may be the horse that emerges from Dubai with the best chance.

#10 Gone Astray. Shug McGaughey trained, gained experience as a Juvenile, figures to improve at 3 with solid juvenile foundation. Great racing pedigree. With four races as a juvenile, should be able to fire a couple of strong efforts off the bench.

#11 Quality Road. Impressive maiden win and strong breeding on female side of the pedigree. Solid speed figure in debut race. Needs to hit the Derby road quickly with no graded earnings. Florida may have the deepest and most competitive group of lightly raced horses in training this winter.

#12 Stimulus Plan. Slow fused son of Jump Start should get better at 3. Mark Casse is a solid trainer. Should love the long stretch of the Fairgrounds. Closed for third in the Delta Futurity, added distance should old help horse who has 4 route races in his resume.

#13. West Coast Bernie. Has shipped and run competitively in strong Juvenile campaign. Sire Bernstein is a son of Storm Cat. Storm Cat in the male line has had a tough road to the derby in recent years.

#14. Bruce N Autumn. Dale Romans trained. Broke maiden on turf. Looked impressive in long dirt start in sprint race, strong upside. Sire is Lemon Drop Kids, who is a son of the strong stamina influence Kingmambo. Training in Florida may have to ship for a spot.

#15. Big Drama. Already has the earnings. Love the tactical speed. Has proved routing ability. Wintering in Florida. Light on the pedigree side, but have some stamina influences in his pedigree. Mare has produced 6 winners from 6 foals. In shape, has the Derby earnings. Versatile running style should have him in the hunt in all derby preps.

#16. Pioneerof The Nile. Son of Empire Maker can run all day. Dead game closer should relish a strong pace. Might only have 2 preps in Sophomore campaign. Showed a new dimension when running closer to the leaders in the Cash Call Futurity. Made a wide and one run move against Square Eddie in the Keeneland Futurity on the synthetic surface. Has never raced on traditional dirt. Owner Zayat has a stable full of horses.

#17. Advice. Son of Chapel Royal broke maiden impressively at Arlington. Made big move in Arlington Washington Futurity before being DQ'ed. Needs to get back on the workout tab. Winstar Farm has been to the Derby for 3 straight years (Bluegrass Cat, Any Given Saturday, Court Vision) and again has some strong contenders as the calendar turns this year.

#18. Turk. Closed impressively for 2nd in maiden debut. Bob Baffert trained. Lightly raced, California has about 6 horses who are lightly raced all eligible for Non Winners of 2. Will have to play catch up on a tricky Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita.

#19. Well Positioned. Drew off by 14 lengths in 2nd lifetime start. Great breeding, was defeated by Idol Maker in career debut. Strong female pedigree.

#20. Capt. Candyman Can. Son of the undefeated Candy Ride. Broke maiden for fun by 7 lengths at Saratoga. Lost tough race in troubled trip at Arlington. Set fast pace at Churchill Downs before faltering late. Training in Gulfstream, look for him to make his final pep at the Bluegrass or Lane's End.

A few other horses to keep an eye on. Point Encounter, Hello Broadway, Atomic Rain, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy, and Beethoven.

2008 Racing to the 2009 Derby

2008-12-21T15:39:00.005-06:00

Saturday's Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park concluded the Juvenile racing season for 2008. With just 9 days remaining in 2008 here is one observers key race notes and thoughts on this class of 2006 from a trip, pace and speed analysis.

Hollywood Juvenile Championship:

Winner Azul Leon defeated a field that has done nothing on note since. The winner Azul Leon toyed with this field, circling and coming from last place for the easy victory.

Sanford Stakes:

Desert Party emerged victories on an off track. Vineyard Haven finished 3rd with no visible excuse but would rebound with 2 straight victories.

Best Pal Stakes:

Azul Leon again circled the field and in a very controversial decision was "awarded" the victory after Kelly Leak number was put down. One of the more competitive 2 year old stakes races this year. Charlie's Moment, Coronet of a Baron, Azul Leon and Kelly Leak, all ran credible races with a knockdown stretch run going to Azul Leon.

Saratoga Special:

Runaway and Hide, showed a tremendous turn of speed and held back a serious challenge from Break Water Edison, who was reserved early and made a menacing move going into the turn. Fast Early Pace and Fast late pace. Run Away and Hide was injured and has been retired to stud. Break Water Edison hinted that he may be something special with a nice off the pace move. Join in the Dance proved to be just a speedball.

Hopeful Stakes:

The most interesting prep in that the 2nd place finisher Cribnote, drew more attention than the winner after the race than the winner Vineyard Haven. Munnings drew the most pre-race hype but broke slow and finished with no late kick. Break Water Edison was gunned from the rail by Alan Garcia and faded to finish 4th. Cribnote looked like a winner on the turn, bolted and lost about 6 lengths and then finished with a flourish to claim 2nd. The winner Vineyard Haven came into the race after running up the track in the Sanford Stakes with no apparent excuse. This was one of the more bizare turnaround in recent years. With no apparent front-runner in the field Vineyard Haven seized the lead and turned in a very fast performance.

Delmar Futurity:

The synthetic surface produced another close finish with 5 horses within 3 lengths at the finish line. Midshipman rallied gamely in the stretch. Beleive in Hope ran a very game race despite a wide post and making a mid race move and flattening out down the lane. Street Hero closed with a flourish while making an inside move.

Futurity Stakes:

Charitable Man came off the pace and impressively mowed down a field that looked like it had potential at the time, but since that race has not produced on the track. 3rd place finisher Friesan Fire lost last week at the Fairgrounds as the 3/5 favorite. Gone Astray and Girolomo both impressive maiden winners this summer failed to fire in a slow paced race early.

Arlington Washington Futurity:

Another Synthetic induced close finish with 6 horses within 6 lengths at the finish. Terrain was moved up to first place after a double disqualification of original 2nd place finisher Advice and first place finisher Jose Adan was bumped to 2nd. Capt. Candyman Can had a horrible trip bumped and blocked repeatedly in the stretch. Advice ran a strong race, coming a long planned layoff after a 8 length maiden win, rated early seized the lead and may have tired late.

Kentucky Cup Juvenile:

West Side Bernie made a long, sustained bold move in the mid race and won with a lot to spare as much the best.

Norfolk:

Street Hero turned the tables on Midshipman with a hard fought win in the final 1/16th of the mile. Midshipman was rated early and may have made his move too late. The best effort in this race may have been turned in by 3rd place finisher Believe in Hope. Believe in Hope raced along the rail most of the race which for much of the meet was not the place to be. He briefly had the lead at the rail while Street Hero and Midshipman were making moves on the outside. Believe in Hope save ground with the rail trip, but ran in the deeper part of the track and galloped out strongly.

Champagne:

Vineyard Haven romped wire to wire on the front end. Strong performance while setting fast fraction holding off the pressure and defeating Cribnote, Breakwater Edison, Girolomo, Hello Broadway and Gone Astray. The tough trip award goes to Breakwater Edison who was rated behind horses on the outside, made a mid race move to contention. He went 8 wide on the turn and could have finished 2nd but was totally eased in the lane. Gone Astray ran a credible 4th he was rated and was stuck on the inside most of the race.

Lane's End Breeders Futurity:

Square Eddie came over from Europe and pulled away by 8 lengths, rating off a slow pace, made an explosive mid race move to take the lead going into the turn. Pioneerof The Nile rated toward the back of the pack while making his "dirt" debut made a strong move from the backstretch to get up into 3rd going into the turn, but flattened out and finished 8 lenghts behind the winner. The rest of this field turned in sub par performances. Slow pace, no strong closers down the stretch. An overall weak race and slow start of the race, strong mid pace, slow final fractions. Very hard race to judge.

Breeder's Cup Juvenile:

Strong winning percentage by the field. Midshipman changed previous racing tactics and went wire to wire. Square Eddie and Street Hero went 2nd 3rd all the way around. The tough trip award to West Side Bernie. Stuck with the 13th post, he was forced to lay back behind the field, moved into contention had to move around a couple of tiring horses and still finished with 3 lengths of the winner on another "synthetic" induced bunched field. Pioneerof The Nile also rated in the back of the pack, grinded his way into 5th place and then "hung" down the lane, but was still plugging away at the finish and galloped out like he wanted more ground.

Nashua:

Break Water Edison, rated in 6th place early and made a strong move to take the lead just into the stretch, opened up by 2 and held off the closing run of Hello Broadway. Hello Broadway was rated on the backstretch, stayed close to the fast pace, got outrun when Break Water Edison got first run in the stretch and closed nicely, but never looked like a winner, could have been a deceptive 2nd place finish.

Delta Juvenile:

The Bull Ring produced an interesting result. Big Drama, ran close to the pace, took the lead entering the turn, withstood a strong run from West Side Bernie. Stimulus Plan looked the most intimidating in the lane. Force 13 lenghts behind a average to average fast pace, he ran wide on both turns and closed 7 lengths in the stretch and galloped out strong. This horse has the breeding to be a good one. Delta has a 700 foot stretch, the long Louisiana stretch should be more to his liking.

Remsen:

This was a Grade II race, with most of the field not eligible for Allowance NW2. Old Fasioned was the lone speed and took the easy lead while setting 1:14 fractions for 6 furlongs. He galloped in hand in the stretch. This win was accomplished with the the ideal trip and set-up still have no real idea what he can handle for pace pressure and any kind of mid race or stretch challenge. A slow pace, slow middle and fast finish is the most logical result in a slow pace race. The speed figure came back with a strong number, but I won't buy into the 100 plus figure until he accomplishes it with a little more pressure.

Cash Call Futurity:

An exciting finish between two improving horses. A fast pace ensure the closers would prevail. The winning move may have been made down the backstretch when Garret Gomez made a move to establish 3rd place position on the outside. Pioneerof the Nile was hard ridden going into the turn all the way to the finish, a May foal he may have lots of upside. He was also a little :"washy" in the post parade.

Best Race:

Breeder's Cup Juvenile

Champagne Stakes

Overrated Performances:

Capt' Candyman Can in the Iroquis

Old Fashioned in the Remsen

Underrated Performances:

Break Water Edison in the Champagne

Believe in Hope in the Norfolk

An Unbridled's Song Look at the 2009 Derby

2008-12-17T21:07:00.006-06:00

Among the top contenders for the 2009 Derby trail, includes a Trio of prospects sired by Unbridled's Song. Midshipman, Old Fashioned and Silver City have shown speed, class, and strong Juvenile form. Will they be able to progress and carry that form 10 furlongs the first Saturday in May?

Unbridled's Song is a Gray/Roan from the class of 1993 who started 12 times in his career. His career was filled with some flashy performances, but ultimately soundness issues limited him to 12 starts and 5 wins. His 5 wins included the Grade 1 Breeder's Cup Juvenile and Florida Derby and also the Grade 2 Wood Memorial.

Unbridled's Song went off the Kentucky Derby favorite in 1996 and entered the derby with a record of 4 wins in 7 starts. Speed was his calling card with with past performances showing a 4 length lead at the top of the stretch in his 5-1/2 length victory and with a 3 length lead in the Wood memorial at the stretch call before winning by 1-1/2 lengths. His Florida Derby earned him a "Beyer" speed figure of 114.

As a sire Unbridled's Song has passed along some of his precocious speed, but has also passed along some of his "soundness" issues. He has had success with both fillies and colts, including Breeder's Cup distaff winner Unbridled Elaine and this year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman.

In recent year's Unbridled's Song has been represented on the Derby Trail with flashy contenders including:

Song of the Sword

Rockport Harbor

Eurosilver

First Defense

Value Plus

Unbridled Energy

Half Ours

Buddha

This past spring he was represented by the filly Eight Belles who finished 2nd in the Kentucky Derby.

Despite the Breeder's Cup Juvenile victory by Midshipman. Many racing fans consider Old Fashioned the Juvenile division leader, undefeated and untested he won the Remsen Stakes by 7 lengths. His first 2 victories were equally impressive. The main draw back of the Remsen, was that every horses was eligible for a NW1 other than and he was able to draw off after setting uncontested fractions on the front end.

Midshipman started his career with a win first out on the West Coast. In the Breeder's Cup juvenile he reversed previous off-the-pace tactics and took the field by surprise with a wire-to-wire victory. His win on the front end, was one of the few "Flag Fall to That's All" efforts on polytrack Breeder's Cup weekend.

The juvenile was run with Midshipman, Square Eddie and Street Hero, all prominently placed and running 1-2-3 around the track. Midshipman warmed up well and looked on the muscle in the post parade before drawing off on the wire to wire victory.

Silver City a $700,000 yearling started his career with a loss. His most recent effort in a NW1 Allowance earned him a speed figure of 101 with a strong finishing kick down the lane. His victory at Keeneland in his maiden win looked like he had something extra in the tank and defeated some nice runners.

Many of Unbridled's Songs best runners have developed and flashed high speed figures in dominating performances. Rockport Harbor is the horse most similar to Old Fashioned. "Rocky" debuted with a 8 length win at Philadelphia in September of 2004 and won his first 3 races by a combined 23 lengths. In his 4th career start Rockport captured the Remsen Stakes Old Fashioned has picked up his 3 victories by a combined 22 lengths.

Octave began her career with a win at Churchill Downs at 4 - 1/2 furlongs and ran in 4 sprint races before stretching out and running second in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile fillies in 2006 to Dreaming of Anna.

Half Ours was another brilliant fast son of Unbridled's Song. Half Ours broke his maiden by 10 lenghts at 4-1/2 furlongs and then captured a Juvenile stakes by 4 lengths but did not race again his juvenile season and remained injured during his 3 year old campaign. Half Ours had a 2 demerits going against him, in addition to Unbridled's Song as his Sire, he was out of a Storm Cat mare!

Two more fast sons of Unbridled's Song. In the winter and spring of 2002 Buddha terrorized Gulfstream Park with a devastating maiden win and Allowance NW1, then Buddha went to New York and won the Wood Memorial over a very strong field, 3 for 3 is sophomore campaign he would have been one of the derby favorites, but was scratched the week of the the derby and never raced again. Again Buddha was out of a Storm Cat mare!

Value Plus opened his career with a 8 length win at Saratoga in his juvenile season. He then started his Sophomore campaign with a 5 length win at Gulfstream Park, ran second in the Florida Derby. He did not win again until winning the Artax handicap at Gulfstream Park in his 4 year old campaign. Fast and fragile, Value Plus once again could not overcome those long legs that the Unbridled's Song's seem to carry.

Unbridled's Song seem to fire fit, fresh and ready in their career debuts and off the shelf
they like Gulfstream Park surface
Just say not to Storm Cat mares!
many go on the shelf and have multiple layoff lines

Silver City and Old Fashioned figure to take the Fairgrounds and Oaklawn Park route to the Derby. Midshipman will go by way of Dubai!

Old Fashioned is out of a Meadowlake mare, he was fast and precocious himself winning the Arlington Washington Futurity by 15 lengths and retiring 3 for 3.

Midshipman is out of a Avenue of Flags mare. Avenue of Flags was lightly raced and has produced some speedy but unsound horses himself.

Silver City is interesting in that he is out of Mt. Livermore, who adds a little soundness to the equation.

So while Old Fashioned, Midshipman and Silver City have impressed with gaudy wins and high speed figures. A clean road to Kentucky may not be in the offering. Many of the Unbridled's Songs in recent years have not been able to stand up to the training. Trying the Big Brown route to the Derby may be the best approach. Take December and January off, and 2 preps before the Derby.

2009 Derby Trail Graded Dollars

2008-12-10T19:17:00.004-06:00

Last week took a look at some of the numbers for Graded Stakes Earnings for the Juvenile Crop. This week we dig inside the road to the Derby 2009.

Surprisingly not all the stakes schedules have been set for 2009. We will take a look at only the "Dirt" and Synthetic" races on the Schedule for the Winter and Spring of 2009. I have included the 2 million dollar purse of the Dubai.

Total Graded Earnings in 2009: 11,600,000. Compared to 7.8 million in 2008 juvenile earnings. But if the dubai 2 million is throw own 9.6 million is the total.

The Breakdown in Graded Earnings by month for 2009:

January 2009: $500,000

February '09: $1,525,000

March '09 $ 5,050,000 (2 million Dubai)

April '09 $4,525,000

Breaking down the Graded Dollars by earnings into 3 categories

under 8 furlongs $500,000

8 - 8 1/5 $3,550,000

9 Furlongs + $7,550,000

The "Dirt Races" still have the majority of graded earnings:

Synthetic Earnings: $3,225,000

Dirt Graded Earnings: $8,375,000

The Derby Trail is filled with "Graded" Earnings, but the Grades of the races don't have any correlated value to the purse. An example of this is that Tampa Bay has both the Sam F Davis and Tampa Bay Derby, the Tampa Bay Derby has a $300,000 purse while the Sam F Davis has a purse of $225,000. Meanwhile the Holy Bull has a purse of $150,000 and is 9 furlongs.

Gulfstream has totally made a mockery of their prep races. They start with the 9 furlong Holy Bull on January 31st. Meanwhile the Fountain of Youth is only a mile this year and serves as the official prep for the gigantic purse of 1 million dollars in the Florida Derby.

Look the best preps to come in Tampa Bay in 2009. The better horses are not going to come off a layoff and run in the Holy Bull. While the true distance horses may be reluctant and not risk losing any Graded Earnings to a Speedball in the mile Fountain of Youth.

Inside the numbers: Kentucky Derby Trail 2009

2008-12-03T18:41:00.011-06:00

Just two Graded Stakes races remain on the calendar for 2008 for Juveniles. The Delta Jackpot December 5th and Cash Call Futurity on December 20th will complete this years Graded Stakes Earnings for Derby Hopefuls.

The Juvenile Run for the Roses began on May 1st with the Kentucky Breeder's Cup Stakes. In 2008 there are 26 Graded Stakes on the Juvenile racing calendar for Colts.

Surface

Dirt = 13 Turf = 3 Synthetic =10

Total Graded Stakes Earnings through December 1: $6,345,030.

So Far 116 Horses have "earned" Graded Stakes Earnings (GSE). Down the Stretch of the Juvenile season with just the Delta Jackpot and Hollywood futurity left to run the current leaders through December 1st are listed on the right.

In 2008 Dennis Of Cork earned entry into the Derby field with $165,000 in GSE. $225,000 is usually a safe number that will qualify a runner into the 20 horse starting gate. The top 5 runners already have enough earnings that will qualify into the 2009 Derby starting field. Terrain can add to his $300K plus earnings on Friday at Delta Downs. The winner of the Delta Jackpot and Cash Call Futurity will automatically receive enough Graded Stakes money to get them in the derby lottery.

On the Filly side, Stardom Bound has over 1 million dollars in earnings an aggressive ownership group with IEAH that may be thinking "Roses" after spending 5.7 million dollars in November. An additional guaranteed spot for 2009 is already committed to the winner of the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes in England next spring.

Digging into the numbers a little deeper. Taking the $6,345,030 already earned in Graded Stakes races and adding in the Delta Purse of $750,000 and the Cash Call purse of $750,000 brings the total 2008 Graded Stakes money pot to: $7,845,030.

Staying with the standard definition of a "route" race being 8 furlongs or longer. The 2008 earnings are distributed:

Route Graded Stakes dollars: $5,967,280 or 76% of the Graded dollars available.

Sprint Graded Stakes dollars: $1,877,750 or 24%.

Graded Stakes earnings by surface reveals the following chart:

With the Breeders Cup Juvenile being held this year at Santa Anita and the large purse of the Cash Call Futurity, this results in 56% of the Juvenile Graded Earnings being run on the synthetic surface.

Graded Stakes by Class:

Grade 1 = 7

Grade 2 = 6

Grade 3 = 13

Grade 1 races account for 26% of the Graded Stakes calendar but 55% of the Juvenile Graded earnings.

Next week we will take a look at how the 2009 run for the roses looks by the numbers from January through the first Saturday in May.

Breeders Cup Juvenile

2008-11-18T20:18:00.007-06:00

A front-running score in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile has landed Midshipman in the role as the "Winter Book Favorite" for the 2009 Kentucky Derby.

This year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile was a very competitive by historical standards. The combined 12 starters entered the race with an overall record of 29 wins from 49 starts, for a combined lifetime win percentage of 59% this number matches the 2002 field that entered the Juvenile starting gate with a same 59% rate. A side note from 2002 is that only Lone Star Sky from the Breeder's Cup Juvenile made the Kentucky Derby starting gate the next spring.

Street Sense's romping win in the 2007 Kentucky Derby came over 5 other horses who had been spanked in the 2006 Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Making 2005 the most consistent or mediocre? crop in the 25 years of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile.

2006 BC to KDerby runners =6

1986 BC to KDerby runners = 5

In 24 running's of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, 1996 was the only year that has failed to garner a starter in the following year's Kentucky Derby Starting gate. What went wrong with the class of 1996?

Boston Harbor and Gold Tribute both suffered injuries. The rest of the field in 1996 was modestly bred and included Sal's Driver a Pennyslvania Bred, Michelle'sallhands a Florida Bred. Ordway and Zippersup regressed significantly.

The '97 Kentucky Derby starting gate included Captain Bodgit who won the Laurel Futurity, Silver Charm who started his Sophomore campaign in February of '97. Pulpit drew off by 7 lengths in his 3' year old debut.

For 2008 Square Eddie and Street Hero already have the earnings, but neither has ever started on "traditional" dirt. Midshipman has been shipped to Dubai and we have already seen that some of those horses are never heard from again. Using 24 runnings as the benchmark, odds are at least one horse will emerge and make the 2009 Starting Gate.

The Breeder's Cup of 1986 had strong fields for both the Juvenile and Fillies. The class of 1986 included Alysheba and Bet Twice who between them won the Triple Crown in 1987. Both horses raced strongly into their 4 year old campaigns. Gulch became a champion sprinter and sired a derby winner in Thunder Gulch. Demon's Begone captured the Arkansas Derby in the spring of '87 and was the Derby favorite before bleeding in the race. Polish Navy who played 2nd fiddle in that crop retired with a lifetime record of 7 wins in 12 starts winning a million dollars and earned victories as a 3 year old in the Jim Dandy and Woodward. The 1986 field was a very "key" race.

On the ladies side, the 1986 juvenile fillies included future Breeder's Cup Distaff winner Sacahuista, Brave Raj, Tappiano and Saro's Brig.

With many horses bypassing this year's Breeders Cup due to the Syntheic surface, we may only see one or two horses emerge from the Juvenile as a strong spring contender.

A "future" look at the 2009 Kentucky Derby

2008-11-15T13:10:00.008-06:00

Two of my weekly web browser bookmarks are horseplayerdaily.com and viewfromvegas.com. Both sites post weekly updates of the latest Wynn Racebook Kentucky Derby Futures. Since Horseracing is determined not to join in on the fun and take 15% of the action, they continue to allow Las Vegas to take 100 % of the action. It's a great gig if you can get it!

One of my personal "bucket" list items to do is to cash a Kentucky Derby Future bet, placed before December 1st of the following year's derby. I have been attempting this Rubik's Cube for 4 years now, (last year's bet on Referee didn't turn out so well).

The futures are not really designed to be a "value" bet, an open parimutual system with the top 200 contenders or all Triple Crown Nominated horses, could increase exposure and further brand the the Kentucky Derby experience up to 6 months, prior to the First Saturday in May.

Meanwhile, until someone decides to up the ante at 700 Central Avenue, we can continue vicariously live the Kentucky Derby Futures through the Wynn Racebook.

As of November 10th 27 horses are listed at odds under 100-1 by Wynn Casino. One of the 27 horses is a filly Stardom Bound. Since the Derby Starting Gate is limited to 20 starters. Let's take a look at the value currently being offered by the Wynn Las Vegas Race and Sports Book.

The current 2009 Kentucky Derby Future Book favorite is Midshipman at 15-1 and Vineyard Haven at 18-1. Both are wintering in Dubai and may have only one prep before heading to Louisville.

Charitable Man a well bred Juvenile who impressed coming off the pace is 25-1. Imperial Council who has ran just 2 races and has only a maiden win is 35-1. Capt. Candyman Can is being offered at the low low price of 30-1.

After watching American Dance lug inward in the stretch at 3/5 in his last race, I will pass on his current odds at 75-1. Majormotionpicture had a sharp win at Delmar this summer but seems to be a little low at 50-1.

Meanwhile Break Water Edison is well bred and has Graded Stakes earnings, he is spotted correctly at 60-1. Cribnote, who is on everyone's trip note list after bolting the turn in the Hopeful. He is currently resting and heading to Gulfstream for a 2009 prep campaign.

Betting futures is a tricky and risky proposition. Graded Earnings are the calling card and barring injury 5 of the positions in the starting gate may already be filled for 2009. Midshipman, Vineyard Haven, Square Eddie and Street Hero, all have enough earnings to make the starting gate in Louisville. With the announcement earlier this fall that the winner of a race in England will be automatically guaranteed a starting berth, that potentially leaves only 15 "open" positions. With the Hollywood Futurity and Delta Jackpot still be be run, this could leave only 13 starting gate positions still available.

Realistically chances are one or two of the early earnings leaders will lose form or training time in the spring, but this shows how long the odds are of a horse even getting to the gate, let alone cashing a futures ticket.

Since the odds are long, you have to make a decision, bet on talent? breeding? connections? Here are some of the possibilities for horses listed at 150-1 and higher.

Keep 'em movin Dan 150-1 - Todd Pletcher Trained, good breeding, has raced once and not been seen since.

Map of the World. 175-1. Disappointed in 2nd career start at Churchill Downs, could show up at the Fairgrounds next.

Silver City. 200-1. Purchased for 700K at Auction, same connections as Alysheba, defeated a nice field at Keeneland, has been working since may run at Churchill or Fairgrounds next.

Brother Keith. 150-1 Bobby Frankel Trained. Owned by the Ramsey's defeated nice field at Keeneland for maiden win.

Royal Vindication. 150-1. Set fast fractions in the Nashua, has experience, competed against top horses and still may have room for improvement. One of the few horses who has multiple wins that is listed over 150-1.

Retap. 150-1. Nice breeding by hot 2 year old sire Tapit, could improve. Steve Asmussen trained.

West Side Bernie. 175-1. Has Graded Stakes earnings and drew 13 post in Breeders Cup Juvenile. Ran evenly in Breeders Cup. Being rested for winter campaign.

Until a pari-mutual system is implemented and more horses are allowed for wagering purposed, with the first pool being in late January, "Futures Betting" may not offer the best value. The odds are long and they may not offer value, but anyone cashing a ticket on a horse 100-1 or higher has no reason to go to the window with their head down.

With someone going to Vegas this week. I'm going to place a few future wagers, in addition to the wagers I placed a few weeks ago. A few fun tickets to keep the fires burning until most of the top contenders start working out again in late December.

An early Odds Line For the Starting Gate based on current graded earnings would like something like this:

Midshipman 25-1

Vineyard Haven 40-1

Square Eddie 45-1

Street Hero 60-1

Break Water Edison 75-1

Believe in Hope 100-1

Pioneerof the Nile 125-1

West Side Bernie 150-1

Remaining 11 horses about 175-1 to reach the starting gate.

The 2009 Kentucky Derby Trail Begins Now

2008-11-13T20:04:00.007-06:00

It's Official the first 2009 Kentucky Derby Trail column written by Steve Haskin for Bloodhorse has been published and the road to Louisville 2009 begins.

I'm back with a bigger larger database than last year, I now have 38 full years of Kentucky Derby Starter Statistics which is 10 more years than I had last year. Every Starter from 1970 through 2008 has been entered. The larger database allows a more diverse sample base to draw from. This years posting will also be on scheduled on Fridays. With some racing recaps coming later down the trail on Mondays.

The "modern" era of the Kentucky Derby began in 1980. Since 1980 the smallest field of starters has been 13 in both 1980 and 1985. In the 1970's field sizes were as small as 10 starters in 1979, 9 starters in 1976. So the extra 10 years of data allows for larger sample sizes, the most recent data seems to indicate some of the recent changes in prepping for Kentucky.

Midshipman tops the list of earnings leaders after a front-running victory in the 2008 Breeder's Cup Juvenile. By Unbridled's Song out of a Avenue of Flags mare, this runner limited his racing to Polytrack his Juvenile season, he is getting ready to ship to Dubai and will prepare for the spring classics with a light racing schedule.

Vineyard Haven is the only Juvenile with two Grade 1 victories. A front running score at 9-1 in the Hopeful Stakes was followed by a runaway romp in the Champagne, cruising in after racing near the lead in a strong performance. By Lido Palace out of an Aloha Prospector mare, the pedigree is a bit light. Winning first time out is always a positive sign. Vineyard Have debuted with a 4 length tally at Calder Race Course in June. You may already be wondering how many horses have deputed at Calder Race Course and gone on to start in Kentucky? Since 1970, 655 starters have "run for the roses" 29 of those made their maiden voyage at Calder. Lil E Tee won the 1992 Kentucky Derby after starting his career in Miami, and Impeachment running 3rd in 2000.

Square Eddie stamped himself as a contender with a strong win at Keeneland in the Breeder's Futurity and then finished with a runner-up effort behind Midshipman at Santa Anita. This is where it get's interesting. Square Eddie is sired by Smart Strike the same sire as Curlin. Curlin supposedly didn't like the Pro-Ride, but Square Eddie is a polytrack specialist? aye carumba when will the polytrack madness end. Truth in disclosure I do not believe in poly or dirt horses. It's racing. First one across the line wins!

Street Hero rounds out the first "final four" horses, who have in essence already qualified for the derby all with over $200,000 in earnings. What Street Cry lacks in overall Numbers as a Sire, he makes up for in quality, having sired Street Sense, Zenyatta, and Street Boss, his latest crop includes Street Hero who threatened to run a couple of "big races" before knocking the door down in the Norfolk out West.

The short list of possible Derby players includes some well bred Juveniles. Fans of Empire Maker will be represented by Imperial Council who flashed speed in his debut and then scored a facile maiden victory at 3/5 in his second lifetime start. Idol Maker lit up the board in his debut at 17-1 for Todd Pletcher and has been training steadily since, looks like he might be aiming for the Remson Stakes later this month at Aqueduct Pioneerof the Nile has also shown ability and may be ready to move forward in his next start.

Lemon Drop Kid has a trio of interesting prospects who have flashed just enough talent to indicate future big things. Leading the way is Break Water Edison victorious in the Nashua coming off the pace, Charitable Man finished like a cool customer winning the Futurity Stakes at Belmont and don't overlook the 4th place finish by Bruce N Autumn this last weekend at Churchill Downs, he looked very green and may just be learning the game.

The brilliant but lightly raced Candy Ride will be well represented with Capt. Candyman Can winning the Iroquois and Chocolate Candy the Real Quiet Stakes.

Lightly raced youngsters who have caught this race watcher's eye include Believe in Hope who impresses with a rough trip and strong finish in the Norfolk, Hold Fast a 4th place finish out West at Delmar and working strongly of late. Keep'em Movin Dan debuted nicely for Todd Pletcher this summer but hasn't been seen on the track since. Gone Astray, Colonel Rutledge, Stimulus Plan and Advice have all shown ability.

Other's to watch this winter include Regal Ransom, Elusive Bluff, West Side Bernie, Hello Broadway, Royal Vindication and 700K auction purchase Silver City.

Time to start dreaming the class of 2006 has arrived.

Oaks Day

2008-05-01T20:35:00.002-06:00

Let's line em up for the Oaks.

Proud Spell is way overrated. Country Star is too much a closer for me.

Golden Doc A takes the rail and finishes strong for the win. Bsharpsonata and A to the Croft round out the tri.

I usually bet 2 horses to win. In this race I bet Pure Clan and Golden Doc A.

Derby Week

2008-04-27T09:04:00.002-06:00

It's here, Derby week is upon us, with Big Brown scheduled to ship to Churchill Downs on Monday, all the top contenders will be in Kentucky, getting ready for Saturday. Some interesting works the last few days.

Gayego, Cool Coal Man and Colonel John have been galloping over the track for a few days and seem to be getting ready for a top effort.

Monba and Cowboy Cal had strong efforts yesterday at Keeneland, I was very impressed with Monba's work in company.

Smooth Air may not run and with Proud Spell opting for the Oaks, it looks like Bob Black Jack and Dennis of Cork will get in. Now let's see if we can get Halo Najib into the race!

The Oaks is shaping up as a very nice race. Bsharpsonata, Country Star and Pure Clan, are all very strong and Pure Clan may be the best of the bunch.

Eight Belle's seems a little out of here element trying the derby, mainly because of the running style, I think she is not quick enough to hang with Gayego and Big Brown, and also may not be able to outlast Colonel John, Monba, Pyro and others.

Whats up with Pyro? Everybody is off the bandwagon, he may have just peaked a little too soon.

LEXINGTON NOTES

2008-04-19T16:51:00.002-06:00

Another California horses ships out and wins off the synthetic surface. Behindatthebard comes from 15 lengths back and wins another prep for Todd Pletcher.

Let's take a look at the list: Sierra Sunset, Gayego, Behindatthebar, Tiago, Heatseeker. Can anyone still doubt will not like Churchill Downs?

I hope Eight Belles gets a good post and draws into the Derby. Any dollar bet on her will be wasted. Those 4 and 6 horse fields she faced the last 2 races did not get her ready for a 20 horse field.

Also I hope she runs in the Oaks, she won't win that race either. Pure Clan needs a full field to run at and will get that in the Oaks, also if Eight Belles, thinks she can hang and bang with Bsharpsonata for 9 furlongs, she has another thing coming!

War Pass goes down! Followers of this forum have noticed that I have not included him on any of my top 5 lists. Something just seemed off about him after the front running slop easy victory in the Breeder's Cup, I just kind of new he wouldn't be the best horse of this generation as a 3 -year old.

Colonel John fired another good work the other day, he works Sunday and then ships to Kentucky on Monday. One work in Louisville and they await the post position draw.

Big Brown had another nice work at Gulfstream. This horse is intriguing, i'm not sure if he is helped by War Pass's scratch, he may be forced up closer to the pace, the pace may also be slower, it actually may help Cowboy Cal and Gayego the most who now can sit right with Big Brown and wait until the turn.

Lexington CQ score equals a solid 3. Very Fast fractions and Samba Rooster dug in the entire stretch, Big Glen verified his form and Behindatthebar had a nice close, he runs with an awkward stride but has won 3 of his last 4.

Adriano

2008-04-16T19:45:00.002-06:00

Wherever Adriano goes, so goes Edgar Prado. If it works for Kent Desormeaux, they why not Adriano. Todays biggest derby decision was Edgar Prado, who has been on fire for the last month making the decision to ride Adriano over Monba in the Kentucky Derby.

This time there is no rumor or speculation. Prado chose Adriano over Monba!

Adriano will go into the Derby off a 6 week layoff after winning the Lane's End. Last Year Hard Spun led every pole except the last one when finishing 2nd at Churchill Downs.

Adriano was visualy impressvie in the Lan'es End, gearing down late after a quick turn of foot on the turn got him into the lead at the top of the stretch. By A P Indy, this long strider could be starting to get good with just 15 days away until the big race.

Adriano has been visualy impressive a couple of times this year. His turf win in January was a monster performance and his Lane's End was solid if not dominating.

As a juvenile Adriano competed in the Grade 1 Breeder's Futurity at Keeneland. In fact Adriano's only bad races was out of the 12 hole at Gulfstream in the Fountain of Youth when it was 88 degrees and very humid. Both Adriano and Monba came off the debacle of the Fountain of Youth and came back with victories in the cool midwest air.

Adraino has many of the classic winner characteristics in his past performance lines. With 4 races as a juvenile and 7 lifetime starts, he has the experience. He has also raced on dirt, turf and polytrack with a nice debut effort at Monmouth thrown in last summer.

Adriano seems to be peaking, training well and galloping well following his Lane's End win. The broodmare sire is Mr. Prospector, so Adriano also inherits a touch of speed and class from his female family.

Greaham Motion is generally regarded as a strong turf trainer. But he has had Kentucky Derby Starters in the past.

Adriano should be able to get a stalking trip and has enough tactical speed to stay out of trouble and could get a nice run from the mid-pack group of horses.

Statistical Ramblings on the Derby Trail

2008-04-15T18:52:00.002-06:00

Now that Uncle Sam dam has officially passed for 2008, it's time to get ready for the First Saturday in May.

I have the trusty Past Performance Database handy with every starter in the Kentucky Derby from 1981 - 2007 locked and loaded.

First let's talk about the Big Brown Bear. Remember wherever Big Brown goes, thats where Kent Desormeaux goes!

The Big Brown Bear not only brings a light resume into the race, he sports both turf races and dirt races to analyze.

As mentioned previously, the trend in recent years has been to see more horses starting in the derby with turf starts. This year we have Cowboy Cal, Adriano, and Big Brown Bear, all with turf races to interpret.

One of the more interesting things to notice about probably favorite Big Brown is that all three of his career races have been "route" races. With route races being defines as a race at one mile or longer. Looking back since 1981 31 horses have entered the starting gate with only route races showing on their past performance lines. Interestingly 7 of the 31 horses began their career on the turf, just like Big Brown. Of those 7 horses, Barbaro was the most similar.

Using the continuum theory again to see how those horses ran in relation to the odds they were assigned by the betting public.

14 horses have shown a positive continuum theory with only route running lines.

2 horses have remained neutral

15 horses have negative continuum running lines

Some recent horses who show no sprints on their past performances heading into the Derby include Barbaro, Empire Maker, War Emblem and Ten Most Wanted.

On the flip side Dispersal, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Laser Light and Curule also have only shown route races coming into the Derby.

Big Brown Bear will be very light on experience with only 3 lifetime races, with only 2 races as a 3- year old. He will be the most lightly raced horses since Curlin the number of furlongs raced heading into the Derby. The horse with the lighest number of raced furlongs since 1981 include:

China Visit 15.5

Disposal: 18

Pendleton Ridge: 23

Wavering Monarch: 23

Showing Up :23

Vernon Castle: 23.5

Valhol: 23.5

Desert Hero: 23.5

Curlin: 24.5

Let's examine more indepth the past performances of a couple of those horses.

Valhol is an interesting comparison for Big Brown. Valhol won the 1999 Arkansas Derby by 4 widening length as a maiden going into the race with 2 starts as a 3-year old and the Arkansas Derby being his 3rd lifetime Start. He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 101

Big Brown won the Florida Derby by 5 lenghts in his 3rd lifetime start and 2nd race of his sophomore campaign. He earned a speed figure of 104.

Showing Up is also very interesting as a comparison to Big Brown. Showing up went into the Derby undefeated and 3 for 3 in 2006. All 3 of his starts were in his 3 year old year were very impressive, breaking his maiden by 4 and winning the Lexington Stakes by 2 lengths and coming off the pace to do so.

Showing Up ran a deceptively good race in the Derby that year, losing to his stable mate Barbaro. Same owners as Barbaro, but different trainer in Barclay Tagg.

Big Brown will also be the first derby start for Richard Dutrow. Dutrow is doing pretty good, he only nominated 2 horses for the Derby and Big Brown is the current favorite!

Richard Dutrow is also light on the Derby Trail the past few years with only 7 horses nominated to the Triple Crown since 2004. The Derby Trail will be an entirely new experience with the only horse who did anything on the trail being Lawrence the Roman last year, who had a very short trip on the trail.

Already Richard Dutrow has turned some heads by announcing that Big Brown will ship to Churchill downs on April 28th, gallop around the track for a few days and then go into the starting gate on May 3rd.

A non workout over Churchill Downs is an interesting strategy, and Big Brown may enjoy the cool weather when he moves up to Churchill, but by leaving so late you do risk a slight chance of something going wrong and him not acclimating to the Louisville track.

Many things to consider when looking at Big Brown.

Wide Open

2008-04-12T17:55:00.003-06:00

What do people think of the West Coast horses now!! Let's face it the slow Beyer numbers are wrong, Gayego, Limestone Edge, Indian Sun, Sierra Sunset.

How many horses do you need as proof that they will run fine on the Dirt!

Colonel John has been one of the top 5 contenders for the Derby ever since his Cash Call Futurity.

Monba is a player because of his breeding. Pyro man bad today, because he was acting up in the gate and broke dead last, but it doesn't matter he is not going to run 10 furlongs in 20 days. He is small and light framed compared to the other conteders and his last 2 races were strong finishes on slow paces.

Gayego does not have the pedigree but this horse impressed me today, he has the right trainer and the right rider.

If you took the field bet in pool 3 last week you might have 7 horses running in the derby.

If Big Brown does not work out in the next 3 days, this could be the most wide open betting race in years and I don't care if the horses are slow, as long as they pay 8 -1 or higher, its a good betting race.

The plan is coming together

2008-04-09T20:18:00.003-06:00

Surprise, Surprise. Twelve horses enter the Blue Grass Stakes for this Saturdaday, meanwhile a full field trys to get last raps down in Arkansas as well.

Let's talk Bluegrass, Monba, Halo Najib, Miner's Claim all have been in my top 10 all year and now they all get one show to get to the Derby. Halo is already in, and I'm not sure they should run him in this spot, but I think they will lay back and make one run.

Meanwhile, I expect a strong performance from Miner's Claim and Monba.

I think Pyro may not be totally cranked, plus I'm not so sure of the horses he has been beating, I still say he's a small horse, narow in the chest and will not get the 1 1/2 miles of the Belmont and he may be intimidated in a full Derby field as well. Closing in 8.5 furlong races is different than firing in 9 and 10 furlong races.

In the Arkansas Derby, I really don't have any idea Gayego should run ok and Z Fortune should bounce back, but I'm not touching that race.

Meanwhile Colonel John will handle the dirt just fine. Curlin for cripes sake just traveled to Dubai and romped by 6 lengths, a good horse runs on anything and the Beyer Speed Figures for the West Coast Tracks are blatantly wrong! If Colonel John wins the Derby they will give him a slow figure, if War Pass wins the race they will give it a higher figure.

The Big Brown Bear

2008-04-06T07:37:00.002-06:00

Wherever Big Brown goes, thats where Kent D. goes!

The Big Brown Bear will firmly go into Louisville as the betting favorite, barring a 10 length victory next week by Pyro, and on the polytrack that aint going to happen.

Many people have compared the Big Brown Bear to Bellamy Road! I'm not sure that is the fair comparison. Here's 2 names for you. How About Bernadini? Bernandini won the Preakness with 3 lifetime races and that was only 2 weeks later than the Derby? Bernadini was by A P Indy and in his Withers he visually dominated the competition, much like the Big Brown Bear did last week in Florida.

Another name to throw into the ring for a lightly raced horse moving up in class, is Ghostzapper, when the zapper stretched out, he got better and became the Ghostzapper that everyone remembers.

Watching Colonel John gallop out yesterday in the Santa Anita Derby was super impressive, this horse is getting good at the right time, has the breeding, has been working out. It does worry me about his habit of getting shuffled back, it happened in the Real Quite Stakes, the Hollywood Futurity and yesterday in the Santa Anita Derby. But anyone who watches his maiden win and says se doesn't have any "speed" is just not watching races. This horse has race horse tactical speed. When he came into the stretch yesterday, Nakatani could have stayed at the rail, the way he shifted to the outside and then just flat out wanted Bob Black Jack is very impressive. The fastest horse doesn't always win the Derby.

In fact Pyro has that "I want' to catch your ass" look to him as well, he's a very nice horse and I'm looking forward to his Bluegrass Stakes, it's going to be tougher than people think, because I'm not sure going to the Poly is a good idea with him, they may get a really slow pace, and he may have to stay closer to the pace, much like Street Sense last year, and then Dominican was a better sprinter than him down the stretch.

"Meanwhile" the Big Brown Bear has a hat named after him, a Big Bad Leroy Brown song on You Tube and the pulse of a nation taking him to Louisville.

"if Big Brown can't defeat these horses, then maybe Big Brown isn't who we think he is"

This is gonna be good.

Colonel John

2008-04-05T23:08:00.002-06:00

Well Colonel John keeps on winning when El Gato Malo keeps on getting bet down to the favorite. What we saw today was what the Colonel needed, a 11 horse field, a pace to run at, got a rough trip and when set down put the hammer down. This is horse bred for the dirt and he will have to problem going to Kentucky.

Bob Black Jack sat of the pace, made a nice move and just was beat in the last few strides.

Yankee Bravo had a shot in midstretch but was outrun by the Colonel. El Gato Malo had a rough trip again, but I also think the Storm Cat breeding started to show in this race.

Overall a CQ score of a solid 3. Possibly a 4. Very nice race honest fractions and coming home in 35 seconds for the final 3 furlongs.

War Pass in the Wood, well the slowest Wood in a long time says it all, plus the final furlong in 13 seconds adds more to that discussion. The fractions were very demanding, 22 and 1/5 and 46 for the half, so War Pass fired today, this is what he is a 9 furlong horse who needs the lead and if he doesn't get any pressure, he will win a lot of races. If they rest up for the Preakness, he will crush in that race. If they continue on to the Derby, he will be the Bug. CQ score of 3 in the Wood because of the strong fractions and the fight at the end, albeit with slow fractions.

In the Illinois Derby, Denis of Cork was who I thought he was, although I was very disappointed by Atoned's effort. The winner ran a nice race, and recapture the glory adds some speed to the Derby and may betting better. CQ of 2. No fractions, and the horses merry-go rounded around the track.

The Bluegrass Stakes is getting very interesting, Halo Najib has thrown his hat into the ring, with slow fractions he may have a shot, Miner's Claim worked out nice, I would like to see Monba go into the race with the slow splits, he may be able to come home quickly. If they wait until the Coolmore, he has to win to get the earnings to the derby.

Colonel John showed he belonged today and those slow figures are the product of slow paces and small fields.

Derby Day Odds Big Brown Bear 5/2, Pyro 5-1, Colonel John 7-1.

Blue Grass Stakes

2008-04-04T19:20:00.002-06:00

The Blue Grass Stakes field is starting to shape up and for those of you who haven't been to the Keeneland web site. Check out the taped workouts of Pyro and Cool Coal Man.

Miner's Claim is going to go in the Blue Grass Stakes, he wanted no part of the lead in the Rushaway and should run better off the pace.

Cool Coal Man seems to be working really well and could fire a big race. Remember the Fountain of Youth was very humid and 88 degrees. He may like the cool weather and should sit very tight with a 8 to 9 horse field and get a good run on Pyro and Visionaire.

Still waiting to see if Monba enters the Blue Grass or the Lexington. Either way the 2 Keeneland preps may have a lot to say in the next 28 days.

The Big 3

2008-04-03T20:54:00.002-06:00

Prep time coast to coast this weekend. The three horses I'm most interested in watching are Atoned, Colonel John and El Gato Malo.

The Santa Anita Derby has actually come up with a large field. With a mixture of speed, pressers and closers. We should be able to see what kind of of the pace moves Colonel John and El Gato Malo make. Both the Colonel and El Gato Malo have been working up a storm and I expect solid races as they move forward to Kentucky.

Out East rain may make the Wood Memorial a front running win for War Pass. I'm still off his bandwagon, until I'm proven otherwise, he just looks unfit, unless he has been doing long slow gallops.

Denis of Cork figures to be the short price in the Illinois Derby. But with a slow pace he may have to use energy staying with the field. Atoned has shown, a lot of heart in his last 2 races. He offers an interesting pedigree and may improve his 2nd start of the year.

The Big Brown Bear Florida Derby Romp

2008-03-30T17:57:00.002-06:00

Wherever Big Brown goes, Kent D goes. Next Up Louisville for the Big Brown Bear! Big Brown justified the hype on Saturday with an impressive, take charge from the start, come in from the outside run in the Florida Derby.

Let's Start with the CQ score. Overall this has to be a 3. Could be a borderline 4, the fractions were fast for the quarter and the half and basically the Big Brown Bear ran them off the track. No late pressure and very little resistance after the turn makes it a final grade of a 3.

The Big Brown Bear was visually impressive and his raw speed for the first half mile, basically ran most of the horses with no chance to close in the Florida heat. Again the most discerning part of this race and this year's Triple Crown Trail in particular is the lack of a Competitive Race or CQ score on any level.

In every prep the winning margin or top 2 horses have been well clear of the rest of the field. Denis of Cork, Sierra Sunset, Cool Coal Man, Hey Bryn, Big Brown, Adriano, every horse has dominated in the victory and we have seen very few races in double with a 1/8 of a mile to go. The West Coast races have been average, but the slow paces and small fields and make any kind of analysis futile.

This weeks Santa Anita Derby should show us a good race but the fractions should be slow, with a sprint to the end by Colonel John, El Gato Malo, Georgie Boy and Signature Move.

War Pass could romp in the Wood, or could fade after a half a mile, if he does score by 2 plus lengths it does set up a very intriguing Derby run with Big Brown and War Pass for the first half mile.

For now let's savor the Big Brown Bear, later in the week we will break down some possible flaws in the resume.

The Big Brown Bear returns in Florida Derby

2008-03-27T17:48:00.002-06:00

"Wherever Big Brown goes, that's where Kent Desourmeaux goes"

The Big Brown Bear will be in Florida on Saturday and so will Kent D. This year's 1 million dollar Florida Derby has the star attraction even with Juvenile champion War Pass, skipping the race for the Florida Derby.

First let's start with the post. The 12 hole is very hard to win out of, and everybody knows about Barbaro being the last horse to win from the outside post going 9 furlongs in a Graded Stakes race.

Is Big Brown is setting up to be the hero on Saturday? Let's be realistic over the past 20 plus years I have seen many Big Browns, flashy PP's, good breeding, and most of the them go by the wayside. Remember Deadly Dealer last year wins a monster prep allowance race and then goes way up in class and gets trounced.

I'm torn on Big Brown, visually he has been very impressive, the long loping stride, the gearing down in both races, the quick turn of speed, these are all assets that he possesses. But the racing experience, being lightly raced and known foot problems.

Personally if this horse wins the Kentucky Derby, it will be one of the worst things that can happen the to the Triple Crown Trail. Big Brown did not even work out in January, only 3 lifetime races only one Graded Stakes going into the Derby would be high odds to overcome.

In some ways I want Big Brown to win on Saturday, I will not be wagering, because of all the unknown angles in Tomcito, Fierce win, Smooth Air training up a storm this race would be a tough race to figure even if Big Brown.

So if Big Brown wins out of the 12 hole and goes to 3 for 3. This horse will be the toast of Kentucky. What can Brown do for you will be the headline all week leading up to the Derby, t'shirts, fan clubs the whole nine yards. The public loves the mystery horse, they love undefeated horses and they will eat Big Brown up.

One of the many things I have learned through the years is that other trainers and owners don't like to get upstaged. With Dutrow saying "if Big Brown can't defeat these types of horses, then Big Brown isn't what we think he is" very bold and maybe unwise, if any one of 2 or 3 horses send to the lead then Big Brown could have himself 4 wide. Big Brown doesn't need to be on the lead, but going 9 furlongs at Gulfstream, especially if they shave the track and have it all spruced up for speed it could be trouble.

So let's sit back and see what the Big Brown Bear does on Saturday!

Notes:

War Pass returns to the work tab first work since the Tampa Bay Derby, this is not good only 2 works in the last month? and no more scheduled works until the Wood Memorial. This horse was tired in the Tampa Race and one work in 2 weeks is not going to get this horse ready. The Wood is shaping up to be a small field but if Gayego goes in that race he could have a huge shot.

Dennis of Cork's decision to skip the Wood and point to the Illinois Derby sounds like he is ducking War Pass and a few other horses, if they are ducking already, thats not very confident going into Kentucky. This horse has an unbelievable closing kick, but he is not in my top 10 yet, still another lightly raced, under trained horse, who is going to be thrown into a 20 horse meat grinder in 36 days.

9 Furlong Preps

2008-03-23T10:26:00.002-06:00

With the Lane's End yesterday, prep season hits full stride in the next 3 weeks. No more Derbies being run at 1 1/16 miles. The speed and class of this crop will start to sort itself out.

The Florida Derby winner will be highly regarded come Derby day. This year's Florda Derby will feature some speed, Big Brown, some mystery, Tomcito, and some improving horses in Elysium Fields, Cool Coal Man, and Hey Bryn, and the Smooth Air continues to train nicely as well and may be sitting on a big effort.

A few random thoughts as we get ready for the Florida Derby.

Big Brown and Tomcito are putting all their eggs in one basket a top 2 finish will be required if they want to make the derby field.

Make no mistake about it, Adriano will run in the Derby, an improve son of A P Indy in late March is always a good thing, and I would train right up to the race. Graham Motion is one of the best in the game in getting horses ready for big days and long races.

Pyro is a one run closer, who seems to be holding form. This lightly framed colt, is a little on the small side I'm not sure how much improvement there is in this horse. Right now until 3 or 4 more horses step up, it still puts him in with a big shot.

Elysium Fields is the real deal. This horse since has been training super for 5 weeks now, his last workout, galloping out 7 furlongs in 1:26. A son of El Prado out of a Silver Hawk mare. This is a serious horse getting good at the right time and with a Derby winning trainer. Edgar Prado is holding a good hand with Adriano, Tomcito and this horse right now.

The Blue Grass is shaping up as a good field. Pyro, Monba, Cowboy Cal, Visionaire, let's hope it doesn't fall apart like last year.

Miner's Claim ran huge yesterday in the Rushaway. A six month layoff, slow fractions and forced to the lead in a non speed race. If he works back in the next 7 days, let's hope they go on to Kentucky, otherwise this horse will be a serious horse for the Preakness and Belmont. Take the Illinois Derby route and he could be sitting on a peak effort come Derby Day.

Colonel John, and El Gato Malo are still some serious horses out west, frequent works, long gallops and still pointing towards the showdown on April 5th. Still not a lot of speed and the winner will still be going to Louisville with small fields and slow paces in all the preps, how they react to a fast pace and large field will still have to be answered.

Colonel John, Elysium Fields, El Gato Malo, all have room to improve as well as Pyro and Visionaire, Miner's Claim and Adriano. None compare to Street Sense, Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday last year.

I still feel Into Mischief, Miner's Claim and Colonel John are the class of this year's crop.

Post position may be the key to the Florida Derby.

With War Pass galloping yesterday, it's a good sign for a horse who lost a lot of luster in the past week. Everybody has jumped ship. This horse needs a couple of sharp workouts in the next couple of weeks, and a strong Wood Memorial run to regain some of the bandwagon.

Lane's End Adriano comes Back

2008-03-22T17:34:00.002-06:00

Adriano punched his ticket to Louisville with a mid pack move that carried him to victory. With his A. P. Indy just starting to kick in he could be one of the top 10 favorites in Kentucky.

In the Fountain of Youth, I touted Adriano and have been following this striking son all winter. In the Fountain of Youth Adriano drew the outside post and it was 88 degrees. Today he thrived on the cool weather.

The Beyer speed figure will come back slow because this is a slow crop of horses. These synthetic races are run like turf races with horses bunching up and finishing strong. Medjool ran wide the entire race and made a move entering the stretch.

Halo Najib now was the earnings to get in the Derby and he keeps on improving and plugging along. With Zayat calling the shots we will see him in Louisville.

The CQ score comes up with a 3, he attacked the leader going into the far turn, pulled away and was under a drive in mid stretch, and then finished while being ease up slightly, the fast opening quarter created a pack of horses from 3rd through 8 place and this helped Adriano, lay back and establish position.

In the Rushaway Stakes, Miner's Claim looked solid in defeat, off a long layoff and a minor fever missing 15 days of training. He came up a little short. But when Big Glen passed him inside the stretch he dug down and began running again, something War Pass did not do last week. Miner's Claim did not want the lead, the fractions were slow 24 and change for the quarter 49 and change for the half.

Miner's Claim should be able to improve 4 to 6 lengths off this race. With the Blue Grass shaping up as a full field and tough race. Miner's Claim should go to the Illinois Derby and try to get the earnings to make the field. It will be interesting where they run him next.

Georgie Boy

2008-03-21T21:07:00.002-06:00

With a quick burst of speed the final 16th of a mile last Saturday, Georgie Boy stamped his derby ticket. Georgie Boy is one of the most intriguing contenders for this year's Kentucky Derby.

Kathy Walsh is a long-time trainer, who has trained some of my favorite horses from past year's. Telephone Canyon, Turbo Launch, Staff Riot, Knight Tracker are a few favorites that come to the top of my head.

Georgie Boy has a strong mixture of racing experience, yet is still lightly raced this year. With 3 races at Delmar last fall he was able to race himself into shape. This spring he has only 2 races, and only one race around two turns.

His last 2 races have been strong, yet defeated a slightly injured Into Mischief in a short field in the San Vincente and then came back against sprinters and another small field in a compactly run San Felipe.

The pedigree screams 6-7 furlongs, and also screams injury-prone. Actually getting to the Kentucky Derby starting gate should be considered a success for this son of Tribal Rule, who himself was very frail and has thrown some lightly built sprinters.

The decision where Georgie Boy runs next will be a tough one for Kathy Walsh. If she enters the Santa Anita Derby, Georgie will go to Kentucky with no races on "real" dirt. Also, I believe the West Coast contingent this year is very strong, the speed figures are slow, the race shapes are slow, but El Gato Malo, Colonel John, Gayego, have all been training solidly since January. I still feel Into Mischief has more talent than anybody in this crop.

The Santa Anita Derby is also a tough decison. It may come up with another short field. The pace may again be slow, and it could be a very toughly fought stretch run. Colonel John and El Gato Malo have both shown they can gallop and finish just as strong as Georgie Boy. Colonel John still has the most speed of these 3 horses, and I think that will be proven later this year. His last 3 races have been all about getting him to rate. He may be forwardly place in the Santa Anita Derby. Bob Black Jack will be pointing for the Arkansas Derby.

The positive for Georgie Boy are numerous. He has raced against the top West Coast horses, has a quick burt of speed, and solid trainer.

The negatives, no consistent jock, only one route race going into April of his sophomore campaign. The past 3 or 4 races have been small fields for Georgie Boy and a start in the Santa Anita Derby could insure another small field. The Derby field of 20 horses, could be a whole different ballgame.

Diggin Deep - Miner's Claim

2008-03-20T21:22:00.002-06:00

Just when you thought it was safe, Miner's Claim comes off the bench to run in the Rushaway Stakes this Saturday. I have been waiting for the comeback race since January when I first noticed Miner's Claim back on the workout tab.

Miner's Claim caught my eye last summer and fall at Woodbine, running on the Fake track, he was never really tested or threatened while winning both his races with solid efforts. The horses he defeated came back to win multiple races.

Miner's Claim is also very intriguing being a half brother to Shaniko who was trained by Todd Pletcher on the derby trail. Shaniko ran some solid races, but did have some soundness issues. Mark Casse is a very good trainer and runs many solid horses up at Woodbine all summer, he has brought down many solid colts and fillies the past few years.

The Rushaway featured the coming out party of Dominican last year. Does Miner's Claim have that type of talent? I think he has the trainer, the pedigree, 2 competitive races and solid speed figures. He has been working solidly for 2 months, expect for a 2 week breather because of a fever. He was originally scheduled to return to the races a few weeks ago.

This is a big race. A strong race in the Rushaway can set him up for a Illinois Derby or Blue Grass prep, and one chance at Graded Earnings and a trip to the Big Dance.

Meanwhile, flush off last weeks prediction that Z Fortune would lose in the Rebel. I may return to watch the Lane's End. I have been high on Halo Najib all spring, and if he is going to move forward now is the race. His 5 furlong bullet earlier this week, points that a big race may be in the offering.

Although I like Halo Najib a lot, I'm also expecting a big race from Adriano. I think the cool air, and smaller field may suit him fine. Medjool and Chitoz are also very intereting horses in this spot. Chitoz has a lot of heart and may just be sitting in a spot to get first run if Adriano doesn't fire.

Weekend CQ scores

2008-03-16T16:11:00.002-06:00

We may finally have ourselves a Kentucky Derby! If you have been following along, all along I have been slow to get on the War Pass bandwagon thinking his pedigree would catch up with him, plus his all out running style wouldn't fit the derby profile unless he was the absolute lone speed.

In the Tampa Bay Derby, I saw a tired horse, or a horse with not much heart, or maybe now the rumors are a sick horse. I'm in the camp that says they will either train up to the Derby, or announce that he is out for awhile.

Lets review CQ scores of the 3 races. The Tampa Bay Derby actually gets a score of 3. There was a challenge at the half time pole, Atoned made a 3 wide bid entering the stretch and Big Truck ran by him late. Not a bad race and Big Truck is a solid mid-level horse, who can make some money in the minor derbies and Jim Dandy type races.

The Rebel I must confess if you read my post on Friday, I made some money. Hit the trifecta, bet 3 horses 2 win and got the exacta.

The race itself was a 2. The pacesetter offered no resistance after 6 furlongs and Sierra Sunset is another hard hitter who seems to be better off the poly, or maybe Colonel John, Georgie Boy and El Gato Malo are better horses?

I'm going with the latter, I have been high on this crop of lefties since last fall. Colonel John, Into Mischief, Etched, El Gato Malo and Elysium Fields are the top of my list of contenders. With Etched in Dubai and Into Mischief hurt. That means Colonel John, and El Gato Malo go to the top of the list.

Meanwhile out West. The San Felipe comes up with a 3. The fractions were slow, but Bob Black Jack, Gayego and Georgie Boy all kept dibs on each other Gayego kicked clear but Georgie Boy just flat out ran him down and seemed to be galloping do it.

I will have more about Georgie Boy later this week. But He really is running the last part of the race like a turf race and you can do that on Polytrack, I also think Country Star is doing the same thing, I'm not high on her chances in the Oaks and I'm not so sure on Georgie Boy, but on the synthetic his style and action is perfect.

Lessons Learned

2008-03-14T17:12:00.002-06:00

This weeks round of preps offers a couple of intriguing betting options and the War Pass paid workout. War Pass gets a bunch of soft tomatoes to run against, while again facing no pressure on the front end at a short distance. We will not learn anything with another win and the "mystique and aura" will continue on until the Wood Memorial.

The race that grabs my attention is way down yonder in Arkansas. Normally I play pretty light on the Triple Crown Trail, a few plays here and there, but I think the Rebel may be the race to dip into the money clip and try to make some coin.

The angle that I'm betting against is "To be the Man, you have to Beat the man". This weeks Rebel offers Z Fortune. Z Fortune has many things going for him. Great trainer, high name jock shipping in. The horse that beat him last week Pyro, came back to win. Visionaire who ran behind him came back to win.

This is one of those trap races. Z Fortune will be getting bet like he is Pyro and Visionaire, the reality is that he has been runing against those horses, but he is not Pyro.

This is a big factor. Every year along the trail, a horse finishes 2nd and in his next start get bet big and throws in a clunker. I think he ran a nice race in the Risen Star but could be vulnerable here.

The 3 horses I have in Mind are Isabull, Sierra Sunset, and He's Eze. Sierra Sunset is the most logical selection, but Isabull and He's Eze should have good position in this race.

Whenever a race looks too easy....Beware this is a trap race. I'm betting against Z Fortune.

Out West. Sprinters try to stretch out. Georgie Boy has all kinds of sprint breeding and beings a son of Tribal Rule, worries me a little on the stretch out. Gayego has run fast and has a good long distance Trainer. He may be able to outrun his odds.

The Big Brown Bear

2008-03-12T20:43:00.003-06:00

The Horse Racing community has been stricken with it's latest case of Kentucky Derby Fever, the Case Study this week is "Big Brown".

With a dominating Allowance win last week, and impressive speed figure. Big Brown is now headed to the Florida Derby where he will pick up a lot of support at the windows.

Let's take a look at some of the long odds that Big Brown faces as he first attempts to straight from maiden or allowance race to a Grade I stakes race.

Here are the last 20 horses to have gone directly from a maiden or allowance win to a Grade 1 race. Keep in mind, they may have taken multiple races to break the maiden or go through that allowance condition.

Horse First Grade I Finish

Nobiz Like shobiz 2ns

Liquidity 9th

Deputh Glittlers 6th

Giacomo 2nd

Noble Causeway 2nd

Sun King 3rd

Read the Footnotes 6th

Birdstone 4th

St Averil 2nd

Action this Day 1st Breeders Cup Juvenile

Blue Burner 3rd

Saarland 4th

Monarchos 1st Florida Derby

Invisible Ink 3rd

A P Valentine 1st Champagne

Millenium Wind 2nd

Lemon Drop Kid 1st

Adonis 6th

Artax 2nd

Indian Charlie 1st Santa Anita Derby.

So from 20 starters we have 5 winners. But for Big Brown we have to compare him to 3 year olds who made their first start from a maiden or allowance race to a Grade 1.

Of those 20 starters, 6 horses tired a Grade I at 3 years old. Monarchos and Indian Charlie were the winners. Monarchos won the Derby, Indian Charlie finished 3rd with very light past performances, actually quite similar to Big Brown if you look at them.

The Big Brown Bear is a very interesting horse. A few of the positives are a high speed figure, and very high for this class. Both of his races have been routes. He has also won both his races by large margins, which is a sign of class. Many past horses demonstrated the ability to dominate early on in their careers.

The negatives for Big Brown are that they have already acknowledge the foot issues. He has a very speedy pedigree. The first son of Boundry I see go 10 furlongs will be the first. Also the allowance race was scheduled for the turf and half the field scratched, so he beat turf horses on the dirt.

The Florida Derby is shaping up as a large field. It will also be many horses like Big Brown and Hey Bryn's only chance to get graded earnings. The margin for error is very small when you get to March with no graded earnings. Big Bear does have some trackable speed and may pose the first real speed threat to develop this spring.

Prognosis. Take two aspirin and come back on March 29th and see how Big Brown does.

La Derby CQ score

2008-03-09T17:53:00.003-06:00

Let's take a look at this weekends graded stakes and establish some Competitive Qality scores. The Louisiana Derby ends up with a score of 2. My pal Charlie set slow fractions on the front end, was challenged mildly by J be K down the backstretch, but when Kent D. Decided not to engage and go for the lead Charlie led until the top of the stretch.

Pyro was trapped between horses for a few strides, but when J be K faded, he was able to take the lead. I was not impressed with his finish. I didn't see the same explosive turn of foot, that he had in the Risen Star.

He still has not one at 9 furlongs, and the Blue Grass will be his first attempt, in what should be another full field. At this point Pyro looks like a horse who could get in trouble and may not have that turn of foot at 9 furlongs or longer. He is still pretty push button and small and compact, hasn't missed a step all spring.

The Gotham was another Strange race, Saratoga Russell showed his Trippi breeding after 4 furlongs and Texas Wildcatter looked like a winner in mid stretch but may have misjudged the fox and wire and allowed Visionaire the earnings and the win. The fractions were slow and Texas Wildcatter inherited an easy lead. The CQ score is 1.

Some very interesting prices in the Oaks Future wager in Pool 2. Indian Blessing may not run in the Oaks. Some very live 30-1 shots in the second pool.

Lightly Raced

2008-03-03T22:44:00.002-06:00

With more horses prepping for the Derby with only 2 starts this year, I decided to take a look at some of the more recent lightly raced horses and some of the patterns on the way to Louisville.

My database has every Kentucky Derby Starter from 1981 to 2007. For every starter in the Derby I have the number of furlongs raced before the Derby.

The top 5 most lightly raced horses by number of furlongs heading into Kentucky since 1981?

China Visit 15.5 furlongs

Disposal 18 furlongs

Pendleton Ridge 23

Wavering Monarch -23

Showing Up - 23

Three of those horses had a negative continuum based on their odds and expected finish.

Next I have projected the number of furlongs for Colonel John and El Gato Malo who both will only have one mar start before Louisville.

Colonel John currently has raced 39 furlongs with 9 more in the Santa Anita Derby expected for a total of 48 furlongs

El Gato Malo has raced a total of 31 furlongs through 4 races and will race 9 more in the Santa Anita Derby for a total of 40 furlongs possibly heading into Louisville.

I next had the database give me a list of horses who have raced between 39 and 49 furlongs since 1981.

Again a total of 473 Derby Starters since 1981. 88 horses fit that profile.

Of those 88 horses 54 have negative Continuum numbers, 10 of those horses have a negative score less than -10, so basically it's a wash.

Of those 88 starters we have 8 winners and 6, 2nd place finishers.

These aren't no "Giacomo" winners either. The 8 winners include: Barbaro, Smarty Jones, Winning Colors, Fusaichai Pegasus, and Sunday Silence.

The bad news is that the 8 winners all had 3 starts as a Sophomore before the Derby. Two of the 2nd place horses had 2 starts prior to the Derby: Lion Heart and Proud Citizen.

One of my goals in the next few months is to create a simulation of all the Kentucky Derby Starters and have a "comparable" list or list of horses most similar. Baseball and Basketball do this with similarity scores.

With a list of similar horses, we could factor in breeding, workouts, past performances, possibly Trainers and Jockeys as well.

In the meantime, I have to look for similar patterns by filtering the database.

El Gato Malo won as a First Time Start and Colonel John as a 2nd Time starter.

Sunday Silence and Fusiachi Pegasus won as 2nd time starters. Both won sprinting. El Gato Malo and Colonel John both won sprinting.

War Pass is projected to race 54 furlongs before the Derby.

I looked up horses with between 52 and 56 furlongs before the Derby. 28 horses fit this profile. Including Street Sense, Strike the Gold, Summer Squall, and Victory Gallop. War Pass had 2 sprints before running a route race in his 3rd start. Street Sense had 2 sprints before running his first route race.

In the next few weeks, I will try to come up with a top 3 list of comparable horses for each derby contender. This will be a rough draft of what I hope I can computerize by next year's derby.

Meanwhile The list of comparable horses to El Gato Malo, Colonel John and War Pass look pretty good.

The "Eye-Ballers"

2008-03-03T15:54:00.002-06:00

The Kentucky Derby trail this week will offer us 2 preps and 3 horses, who have the potential to be the "Eye-baller" for the Kentucky Derby. When I say Eyeballer I'm talking front running speed and potentially the first horse to look War Pass in the Eye and see what he is made of.

Look, there is no mystery here. War Pass has never been headed in 5 starts. He is the speed of the speed, but in his last 2 races, no horse has even attempted to run with him. This week, brings out J be K, Eaton's Gift, and Saratoga Russell.

Jbe K is 2 for 2 sprinting and has serious speed, he will try to take them as far as they can go int he Louisiana Derby.

Eaton's Gift and Saratoga Russell will battle on the Front End in the Gotham. Although this may not be a front end battle. Saratoga Russel was absolutely brilliant in his last 2 sprint wins, and I don't think they have any attention of rating in the Gotham. Ethan's Gift actually has a established a little class, and they have been giving his some long works in trying to improve his stamina.

Now play along with me now and take a look at the 3 eyeballers and their connections and why they are so important to the potential pace of the Kentucky Derby.

J be K and Eaton's Gift are both owned by Ahmed Zayat. Zayat also trains 3 closers in Halo Najib, Z Humor and Z Fortunte, do you think he may have something to gain by having Eaton's Gift going on the front end and trying to wear down War Pass in the Wood or in Louisville?

Also Saratoga Russell is owned by West Point Thoroughbreds. West Point Thoroughbreds also owns El Gato Malo, who is developing nicely as a closer, could "Saratoga" potentially be the "Rabbit" that softens War Pass just a little?

Also keep in mind that Steve Asmussen trains Pyro and J be K. Since Pyro is a closer, he wouldn't mind J be K softening up War Pass on the front end.

War Pass is a very strong front-runner. Probably the most intimidating front runner I have seen since Lost Code. It will be interesting to see what happens in Tampa and New York in his next 2 preps.

Just points to ponder as we get ready to this weeks match-ups.

The Sham CQ

2008-03-01T21:56:00.002-06:00

Well the Left Coast treated us to another 5 horse field. But at least 2 horses ran to expectations and delivered an ok race. Colonel John got the jump with better position establishing his speed early to sit on the outside of lone speed.

El Gato Malo got boxed from the rail and came on gamely in the stretch. Colonel John did show some heart and dug in, but neither horses was totally cranked for the race.

The fractions were slow, but they came home the last 3 furlongs in under 36 seconds, which is always nice to see.

The CQ score is a 2. With 2 horses putting in a good solid stretch run. Colonel John has been high on my rankings all winter, El Gato Malo ran a strong race and seems to be progressing, he is a smaller horse and that pedigree still says 9 furlongs, but he is rating.

I think the West Coast has 2 solid horses and Into Mischief is right there with them, if he can get back on the work tab and maybe into the Illinois Derby. Mandella is conservative, but Into Mischief has the earnings, a couple of 7 furlong gallops can put him right back in the pictures, but another week of no activity could lead to the Preakness.

It will be interesting to see if both continue on to the Santa Anita Derby or if one leaves for the Blue Grass or Illinois Derby between Colonel John and El Gato Malo. I don't think John will. But El Gato Malo is still on the cusp with graded earnings.

Elysium fields did look really good in the Fountain of Youth and with El Prado and Silver Hawk in his pedigree he should be able to run all day long. Since adding blinkers, getting closer to the pace and the recent crackdown in workouts he does seem to be improving.

Denis of Cork

2008-02-28T15:52:00.000-06:00

Denis of Cork will head into March with an undefeated record. With 3 wins at 3 different tracks, Dennis of Cork has displayed strong acceleration and powerful closing kick. Dennis of Cork is sired by Harlan’s Holiday, and is part of his first crop of foals to hit the race track. Other stakes runners from this first crop of include, Tasha’s Miracle and Call Call Futurity winner Into Mischief.

Harlan’s Holiday was a Grade 1 winning son of Storm Cat and Kentucky Derby favorite in 2002 when checking in with a 6th place finish. Despite a high stud fee and many promising runners, Storm Cat has failed to produce a Kentucky Derby winner, but is developing many strong runners as a sire of sires. Harlan’s Holiday was able to win at 9 furlongs, but was not able to produce his best finishes at 10 furlongs. With just one crop to race, the development and improvement of his runners will be watched this spring. The initial evaluation of Harlan’s Holiday when retiring a few years ago, were precocious horses with a scope of 8-9 furlongs his top producing status.

Denis Of Cork won at Churchill Downs in his first lifetime start, closing from 8th place and winning going away in a strong Maiden Special Weight event. In his second start he ran wide and closed determinedly, despite a muddy track and slow fractions at the Fair Grounds.

His Southwest Stakes win was aided by a lone front runner, setting fast fractions and then tiring badly. It should be noted however that Turf War and Riley Tucker also were 15 lengths behind the pace and failed to close at all.

For a February Stakes Race the competition does not matter, because in the first couple rounds of preps, all the races will only be 1 or 2 horses deep. Dennis of Cork has impressed me with his ability to run from behind with wide rallies. Also with only one juvenile start, he was able to come off the layoff and win at the Fairgrounds and the long stretch. His Southwest Stakes win was solid and still is light on experience with only 3 lifetime starts. It will be interesting to see if he is give 2 more preps before the Derby, or just one more start in the Arkansas Derby before heading to Louisville. The current indication is that he will run in both the Rebel and then the Arkansas Derby, but I would not rule out a trip to Keeneland for the Blue Grass.

Robbie Albardo rode him in the Southwest after Calvin Borel jumped off and stuck with Turf War in that race. Robbie is very talented and is no stranger to the Triple Crown, having rode Curlin last year.

Denis of Cork has shown both speed and overcoming adversity in his first 2 starts. In all 3 of his races he has conceded racing experience. In his MSW win he caught a very promising Stungbythestorm who came back to win in his next start. At the Fairgrounds he defeated Unbridled Vicar who had ran in a touch allowance race at Churchill Downs and faced winners twice.

In the Southwest, he was meeting 3 horses who had trips over the track, and was also able to relax behind a lone speedball and go “get em” on the turn! Watching the replay, the stretch run was a little slow, but when he approached the turn, the race was never in doubt.

Can he get 10 furlongs? With only one juvenile start, he is coming from behind in development, but with 3 preps as a Sophomore that may have him more tuned up than many horses with only 2 preps. The Rebel Stakes will be another class jump, but his 9 furlong prep will be his true test of class.

The Colonel and The Cat

2008-02-28T10:20:00.002-06:00

The West Coast has been noticeably silent on the list of top derby prospects this spring. Saturday this should change when 2 of the top 4 colts on the west coast battle in the Sham Stakes. Colonel John is a legitimate colt with the pedigree and past performances that are capable of winning the Derby.

El Gato Malo is undefeated but has shown the kind of speed and brilliance that will now be tested for class as he moves forward this spring.

The Sham has come up with a 7 horse field, with no confirmed front runner, Victory Pete may take the lead, the fractions should be slow. I expect Colonel John to get the first jump on El Gato Malo, but the 2nd scenario that could play out is that El Gato Malo, reverts back to to his maiden win and try to take this field by being up on the pace and using he quick speed to an advantage.

Colonel John has shown a lot of talent in his lightly raced career. His maiden victory was powerful, just galloping and widening down the stretch with ease. In the Real Quiet Stakes, he was 4th going into th turn and in trouble and then in a couple of strides he was in front and drawing off. A troubled trip and laying a little farther back in a full Cash Call field, left him runnign late for 2nd place.

El Gato Malo has also done little wrong to this point, he simply overpowered his field in the maiden victory, outclassed his opponents down at Golden Gate. His last race set up perfectly for him, but just like Denis Of Cork, any lightly raced horses who can trail horses by 6 to 7 lengths and than just go after them on demand is a strong contender.

I'm picking Colonel John to win the Sham Stakes, he is another horse looking at just 2 starts before the Derby, but he has been working bullets in the morning and should be ready, a close loss to El Gato Malo, would still put him in a good position.

If El Gato Malo wins, we would have another unbeated contender for the roses heading into the Santa Anita Derby.

War Pass is still the speed and the class of this crop of 3-year olds. I'm still not sold on his ability to wire this crop at 10 furlongs. Pyro has looked good, but will get tested by J be K, Majestic Warrior, Tale of Ekati and others next week in the Louisiana Derby.

Elysian Fields and Cool Coal Man keep progressing, but Elysian Fields may have more scope to improve in the Florida Derby.

The Battaglia has again disappointed this week. Miner's Claim was supposed to start, but came up with a "fever" so will miss this race, it looks like the Rushaway and maybe the Blue Grass for him now. He had 4 "5" furlong works into him. He may have to go the Dominican route or wait until the Preakness.

Into Mischief has still not worked out west since his last race, Dixie Chatter had one work and then has not worked in 10 days.

More power to them but Pyro and War Pass have not had any training set backs in there careers, if they can keep that up for 60 more days maybe it is just the Derby gods being lucky to them.

Meanwhile:

Colonel John, El Gato Malo, Denis of Cork, Into Mischief, Miner's Claim still remain under the radar and still in my top 5.

Pathetic Fountain of Youth

2008-02-24T16:22:00.002-06:00

An eagerly anticipated match-up failed to materialize in the Fountain of Youth. The splits and final time were very very slow. 25 and 4/5 for the quarter. 49 and 1/5 for the half, 1:13 and 1/5 for the 6 furlongs and 1:51 and 2/5th for the final time? Court Vision was 18 lenghts behinds this slow pace. Z Humor rallies for 4th? Elysian Fields re-rallies in deep stretch to make the race close. Monba never fired. Court Vision never even tried until they entered the stretch.

The CQ scale was a 2.

The number of horses who actually tried to win this race was 2.

Fountain of Youth

2008-02-22T13:06:00.002-06:00

Lots to talk about this week.

First Crown of Thorns is off the Triple Crown trail, earlier this week Richard Mandella announced that he had suffered an injury.

Then late in the week Mandella again says that Into Mischief is doubtful for the San Felipe because of the a bad foot, he continued to hint that he had a bad foot going into the San Vincente, the foot has been giving him problems this year. Mandella goes on to say that it will eventaully clean up. This is not good news for a horse with very high potential.

Check out the funky splits in the San Vincente. Keep in mind the Santa Anita Strip has been very fast this spring with lots of track issues. But splits are splits. :23 1/5 for the quarter and :45 and 1/5 for the half, the 2nd split was run faster than the first, and for no reason, Massive Drama wasn't going to get a big lead anyways. Into Mischief still has a good shot, speed and positioning are always important in the Derby, and this horse is in shape, getting over the foot issue is a big step, but hopefully he doesn't miss another work. He needs to work-out in the next 3 or 4 days, not a very good sign if he doesn't.

Meanwhile War Pass and Pyro continue to march along without any troubles. Why do the favorites never encounter any injuries on the trail?

Meanwhile this Sunday the Fountain of Youth Stakes takes place. A full field of 12 horses is lined up. Another question is why do all the East Coast Races have double-digit fields and next week will probably be another 6 horses field in the Sham Stakes?

Anyways 2 surprising late entrants by Ahmed Zayat. Halo Najib, who I think is a good horse, who has a chance to get better in the next 30 days is being wheeled back 13 days after his OBS win. The original plan was to wait until the Lane's End. Zayat has also entered Z Humor who comes off a flat finish in Tampa Last week. He may have had problems in the paddock down in Tampa. But he still had the lead turning for home in that race and then just did not do anything. I would be very surprised if he improves in this spot. Seems like a waste, he already has the earnings, if he loses this race, then he could go into the Derby with 3 straight losses.

Monba has been having long slow gallops for over a month and looks to be the favorite in Sundays race. Visually Adriano impressed me very much in his Turf win and being by A P Indy this is the time of the year they get good.

Meanwhile, Halo Najib should get some speed to run at, and I expect a top 4 finish by this colt as well.

Adriano has a morning line of 20-1. He is my selection to win the race, with Monba and Halo Najib rounding out the top three. This looks like the spot for Adriano to have his coming out party.

Horses that look live are Elysian Fields and Anak Nakal who has been training steadly for over a couple of months.

Meanwhile Sebastian County has been training superbly for his '08 debut. He runs Saturday at Oaklawn in a sprint. An even run should set him up perfectly for the Rebel. This is another horse I think will be heard from this spring.

Miner's Claim continues to fire bullets down in Ocala. The early plan for the imposing son of Mineshaft is to run next weekend in the Battaglia at Turfway. A steady work-out pattern has this horse ready.

Southwest Stakes Competitive Quality

2008-02-22T13:01:00.002-06:00

Denis of Cork came from behind to remain undefeated on Monday in the Southwest Stakes. After watching the replay several times. The CQ score I'm going to go with is a 2.

The field was big, but the race was very uneventful. The leader was sent from the gate and not only were the fractions fast, visually you could see the horse running all out with powerful strides, the announcer noted that he was sharp down the backstretch. On the turn the leader faded. Sierra Sunset actually rant a pretty good race to chase the lone speed and then take the lead for a brief stride or two before Denis uncorked his winning rally.

Definition #4 fits the best profile from Class of the Field. "An off-pace horse or late-comer catches the leaders near the pre-stretch or stretch all and following a brief challenge and several strides, one horse draw off to win".

Up Next the Fountain of Youth

Pyro Mania

2008-02-17T08:50:00.003-06:00

With a last to first move in the Risen Star, Pyro went to the top of the charts on many Kentucky Derby lists, let's take a closer look at the colt who turned heads and broke stop watches the final quarter mile.

Pyro is by Pulpit a son of A. P. Indy who retired after a 4th place finish in the Kentucky Derby in which he was favored. Pulpit was a "lightning" in a bottle type horse himself.

Pulpit broke his maiden January 11th at Gulfstream Park in 1997 with a wire to wire 7 length romp. An allowance win and Fountain of Youth victory followed and by February 22nd he was a Grade II stakes winner. Heavily favored in the Florda Derby, he was passed by Captain Bodgit in the stretch and finished 2nd. Pulpit rebounded to win the Blue Grass in a very weak 7 horse field, capitalizing on the Keeneland front-running highway and very slow fractions to record the win.

Race Record:

The Derby favorite with 4 wins and 5 starts, Pulpit ran evenly and was not able to quicken with Silver Charm and Free House. Captain Bodgit again closed down the stretch, leaving Pulpit in 4th. Retired after the race Pulpit never raced again.

Classic Sire

As a sire Pulpit has sired 2 Kentucky Derby Starters. Essence of Dubai and Tapit. Essence of Dubai was a Norfolk winner who ran in the Derby after wintering in Dubai. Tapit was highly regarded in 2004 and but finished with a disappointing run in the slop in a race dominated by Smarty Jones. Both horses retired with under 10 career starts.

Since 2004 Pulpit has had 24 horses nominated for the Triple Crown. Top Classic prospects have included Sightseing, and Corinthian.

Overall Pulpit has had some very unsound runners and keeping Pyro healthy through the Triple Crown may be the biggest obstacle facing Steve Asmussen.

Pulpit has had 2 other runners in Triple Crown races. Purge who ran last in the Belmont Stakes and Chekhov.

The female line of Pulpit shows Breeders Cup Classic Winner, Wild Again who has been the sire of some hard knockin horses.

Pyro is the 2nd foal of Wild Vision. Wild Vision made one start and one win, but never raced again. (hmm more injuries) the first foal was an un-raced filly by Quiet American. A full brother to Wild Vision was very sound with 9 wins in 20 starts and winning the Longacres Mile and racing through the age of 6. The rest of the family was lightly raced.

The 2 most sound Pulpits have been fillies and both have been Turfers. Wend and Rutherienne have been very solid turf runners in 2007 and 2006. Sky Mesa was another runner who developed early winning the Breeder's Futurity but was injured the following spring.

Pyro himself is a very small runner, compact and well proportioned. My experience has been that small runners tend to come "off the shelf" better and can run big races off the layoffs and as first time starters. "Big" horses need to get their legs stretched out in stride and require 2 to 3 races to fire their best effort. It is possible that Pyro may have fired a big effort in the Risen Star and may not have much "upside" in the next 60 days. Keep in mind he may not need more upside.

So far we are still waiting for some horses to break through to the War Pass and Pyro level, some horses have hinted at the ability. Other horses have yet to get running this spring. In the next 40 days these other horses will have to step up quickly to get to the level of the top 2.

Pyro will probably next run in the Louisiana Derby, it may be a small field and this could work against Pyro, also a last to first move is not always the recommended strategy. Watching the Risen Star, Pyro was almost blocked twice and actually had to move outside horses before unleashing his quick final quarter.

My 2 biggest concerns for Pyro over the next 70 days are one remaining injury-free which many Pulpits have come to incur. The second is that being a small, muscular horse he may not have as much scope to improve. What you see is what you get... Will it be good enough come May 3rd?

A Good Horse can come from any Track?

2008-02-14T21:21:00.003-06:00

With the Sam Davis being the highlight on the Triple Crown Trail. Let's take a look at where Derby Starters have come from in the past 26 years.

I searched the database for where every horse who started in the Kentucky Derby since 1981 and what track was the "Debut Track" The results contain a few surprises. For the record horses from 43 different tracks have started in the Kentucky Derby since 1981. All horses who made their start in a Europe, Dubai, or Mexico are classified as foreign. I left the Canadian tracks on the list.

The top "debut tracks" since 1981:

Belmont: 69

Hollywood: 48

Santa Sanita: 34

Saratoga: 33

Delmar: 32

Churchill Downs: 32

Keeneland: 30

and low and behold Calder with 25.

Now the calendar has a lot to do with the top 5 or 6 tracks, especially with Hollywood Park having a long summer meet. Belmont has seen many classy 2-year olds over the years between both the spring and fall meet.

Calder has traditionally had a long summer and lot's of 2 year-olds races, and they have been well represented in the Derby with 25 starters.

The Tracks with 1 Debut runner include:

Canterbury Park

Sunland Park

Prairie Meadows

Turf Paradise

How about the Aksarben with 5 and Arington Park with only 8.

So those Maiden Special Weight Races at Delaware, Philadelphia and Arlington Park, may be just end up being special down the road.

Risen Star/San Vincente CQ Scores

2008-02-10T17:17:00.000-06:00

The Risen Star ended up as a visully impressive race for Pyro. His last to first run was explosive, with a quick burst down the middle of the stretch that left no doubt.

Let's get to grading the races. The Risen Star had slow fractions and a fast finish, which can lead to horses having slow speed figures.

Overall I rate the race a 4 on the CQ scale. It's a tough race to rate. But I think even though the fractions were slow, there were 2 challenges in the race. Z Humor and Visionaire both engaged for the lead entering the stretch fighting each other for a 1/4 of a mile. Before Pyro blasted by both those late for the victory.

The buzz of this race was Pyro, but Z Fortune ran a very nice race out of the 11th hole, running 4 wide going into the turn and wide down the backstretch, he was gutty in defeating Visionaire down the lane before his stable-mate passed him. Z Fortune picks up more graded earnings, and may now just need a in the money finish to get in the Derby. Zayat already has Z Humor in the Starting Gate and still has Massive Drama, Halo Najib, Alaazo and Eaton's Gift as possible starters.

Halo Najib and Globalization battle Monday in the OBS Sales Stakes for 3-year olds. Halo Najib is very interesting and this could prove a great prep before stretching out and moving back up in class trying to gain some graded earnings.

The San Vincete was hot contested for no reason, Into Mischief came out of the race rank and went to the leader Massive Drama too quickly. This was far different than in the Cash Call where he came out settled and relaxed. A half mile duel for these 2 proved to be too much and Georgie Boy passed them both in the stretch. Into Mischief will do better stretching out, his raw speed puts him into contention too early in sprints.

Georgie Boy ran a nice race and seems to be a good stretch running sprinter. He may stretch out. Kathy Walsh will certainly try to stretch him out.

Competitive Quality = 3. Maybe a 4. The final time was 1:20 and 2/5 with 6 furlongs in 1:08 and change for the split.

Maiden Win Sprinting or Routing?

2008-02-06T19:56:00.000-06:00

A full field is set to run in Saturday's Risen Star Stakes. Who has the edge, horses who broke their maidens sprinting (Pyro) and were then stretched out, or late developing routers like Visionaire who scored impressive maiden wins routing?

Let's look at the some of the numbers from the past 26 years in the Kentucky Derby Past Performance Database.

Again 473 starters in the study. Of the 473 derby starters, 125 broke their maiden in a one mile or longer race.

Of those 125 horses who registered first career victories at one mile or longer, 56 had a positive continuum.

What about horses with multiple sprints before routing? Bonanza who is making his 6th career start in the Risen Star did not have his first route start until start number five. This pattern is not uncommon of the 473 starters since 1981, 151 horses did not have their first route start until their 5th start. What about a recent trend?

Since 2000 148 total starters. Of those only 28 waited until their 5th start before recording their first one mile journey or longer. This is a substantial training switch in a short period of time. 33% for the past 26 years and only 19% of the horses with this pattern in the last 7 years.

The trend of the millenium is to have fewer total starts and more route starts. Such a dramatic shift goes against many strong 2 year olds of years past.

Look at some of these examples:

Both Easy Goer and Sunday Silence both had 4 sprints before their first route.

Sunny's Halo 7 sprints before his first route.

Real Quiet 5 sprints before first route.

Secretariat 6 sprints before first route.

Cannonade 10 sprints before first route.

Foolish Pleasure 6 sprints before first route.

Affirmed 7 sprints before first route.

For many years the the development of 3 year olds, was multiple sprint races and developing horses in those races and then stretching out that speed late in the 2-year old season or early in their sophomore season.

Then starting in 2000

Fusaichi Pegasus 2 sprints then routes

Monarchos 3 sprints then routes

War Emblem no sprints

Funny Cide 2 sprints

Smarty Sprints 2 sprints

Giacomo 1 sprint

Barbaro 0 sprints

Street Sense

Look at some of the starters in this weeks Risen Star:

Signature Move - 1 sprint

Z Fortune - 1 sprint

Visionaire - 1 sprint

Other horses in this weeks Futures pool:

Anak Nakal - 1 sprint

Colonel John - 2 sprints

Cowboy Cal - 1 sprint

Etched - 1 sprint

Horse Racing is becoming like the NFL, if a one-back team wins the Super Bowl, the next year all the teams switch to a one-back offense.

In recent years, the trend has become one or 2 sprints, less races for Juveniles, only 2 preps in the spring.

For me the most interesting running line this weekend will be the cut back of Into Mischief to 7 furlongs after stretching out to 8.5 furlongs in the Cash Call Mile.

Richard Mandella is one of the few "old" school trainers left and may be going a little different route with Into Mischief. Taking a speed horse and running him in sprints may be the west way to go, keep him fresh, sharpen the speed and then look at the long distance workouts in the morning to develop the stamina.

Some of the large "corporate" stables, like Bob Baffert, Todd Pletcher, and Steve Asmussen are taking some of the fun and individuality of the sport, part of what makes Seabiscuit such a popular book and movie was the character and role that Tom Smith played in the story.

Should be an exciting Risen Star, Pyro may not be trying because he already has the earnings. But Visionaire, Signature Move, Z Fortune and Bonanza all are trying to get the $180,000 in Graded Earnings that goes to the winner.

The Futures are Out - Pool 1

2008-02-05T22:10:00.000-06:00

Future pools for round one have been released. Some very surprising horses in this pool. The Field bet is very tempting this year for the first time in several years.

First off horses with low chances of winning the Derby:Georgie BoyBob Black JackSmooth AirHorses with no Graded Earnings yet, and will be facing large fields in their next start:Dennis Of CorkVisionaire,Signature MoveMonbaThere are 3 horses from the morning line odds who are playable. Monba, who will not be near 30-1, is worth a play, but still needs earnings.

Etched is a possible play for 2 reasons. No one thinks a Dubai horse can come over here and win the Derby. The main reason is no one has done it yet. But Etched is going to run on February 19th and then in the UAE Derby. Etched could drift up to 25-1 because he did not run in the Breeder's Cup or any major stakes races. If he wins both preps he could easily be 7-1 on Derby Day.

The Fillies offer the most value. Mainly because I think Country Star will run in the Derby. I also am not sold on Indian Blessing getting the 9 furlongs. Horses with a chip and a chair include: By the Light, C. J's Leelee, Eight Belles and Izarra.

CQ scores - Swale Lewis

2008-02-02T18:57:00.000-06:00

Small Fields and low CQ scores in Graded preps in the Swale and Robert Lewis.

Crown of Thorns was visually impressive. Had to wait racing room going into the turn, but accelerated quickly. The CQ score was pretty much a 2. Meal Penalty set uncontested fractions, A small challenge from Coast Guard entering the stretch was the only point in the race that it was every contested. CQ 2

The Swale stakes, was a dominating front running win by Eaton's Gift, he had a little pressure on the back side, Wincat never fired and the CQ was a 2. Very fast fractions.

Big Graded earnings by both of these 2 horses. 120,000 in earnings for Crown of Thorns and Eaton's Gift. Remember Crown of Thorns owner and Trainer is B Wayne Hughes and Richard Mandella. So a 3rd or 4th place finish in the Swale or Santa Anita Derby and he is in, along with Into Mischief.

Eaton's Gift is just one of many horses for the Zayat stable, I would love to see Eaton's Gift or Massive Drama soften up War Pass in a prep race or the Derby. Zayat also has Riley Tucker running on Monday prepping for Tampa Bay. Halo Najib runs on Feb 11th prepping for Turfway or maybe Tampa Bay.

Earnings continue to be at a premium for horses like Z Fortune, Monba and others who have none they have to win, and they will face full fields to do it. The Risen Star is coming up very tough next week. Signature Move, Blackberry Road, Z Fortune, Pyro, Check It Twice, that's 5 horses fighting for the earnings check and only Pyro and Blackberry road have solid earnings. Z fortune didn't get much graded earnings for winning the LeComte.

Wining Early: First or Second Start

2008-01-30T20:03:00.001-06:00

Well the Triple Crown Prep season must be upon us, we have a 5 horse field signed up for the Robert Lewis and a small field for the Swale Stakes. With Graded earnings at a premium this year this is very surprising.

Since 2 of the 5 starters are going to receive heavy support at the betting windows this Saturday in the Robert Lewis, let's look at the recent maiden winners Crown of Thorns and Coast Guard.

Both these horses broke their maidens on their 3rd attempt. Let's take a look at all the Derby Starters who have started since 1981.

Again 473 starters in the Kentucky Derby since 1981. Of those 199 starters broke their maiden as a First Time Starter (FTS). Second Time Starters (2TS)accounted for 132 of the Starters since 1981. That's 70% of the starters since 1981.

Let's redo the numbers since 2000 and see what the numbers are:

148 starters from 2000-2007. Of those 60 were FTS, and 50 were 2TS for a 74% of the starting gate since 2000.

This percentage is going up I believe for two reasons. First the quest for the undefeated horse, the public is is love with this type of horse, witness Smarty Jones and last year Curlin. Secondly with few starts, trainers are waiting until further in the fall, which we saw last week in the average month of first start becoming later this decade.

How does this work with the continuum theory? Well of the 199 First Time Starters, only 60 show a positive continuum. Could mean they are being overbet because they won early?

Taking a look at the 27 years of winners in the data, 9 of the last 27 winners won as FTS. 9 won as 2nd time starters. So they are winning at a very close correlation of the number of starters. 70% starters, 67% winners over the last 27 years.

How will this effect Crown of Kings and Coast Guard? Well the good news is that Strike The Gold, Go For Gin and Alysheba all won the derby after winning their 3rd lifetime start.

Winning as a FTS or 2TS does show a class edge and this is very helpful in fighting through the pecking order every January and February on the Derby Trail.

State of the Starting Gate - January 28th

2008-01-28T10:18:00.000-06:00

With Groundhog day approaching, and less than 95 days before they load them up in the Louisville starting gate, Let’s take a look at the State of the Starting gate for the First Saturday in May.

Qualified by Earnings:
War Pass
Pyro
Into Mischief
Turf War
Z Warrior
Country Star
Anak Nakal
Court Vision
Kodiak Kowboy
Colonel John

So with at least 8 spots assured of starting, and Country Star having the option to run in the Derby. The next 60 days will sort out the 13 or 14 remaining openings.

The most impressive 2-year old I saw last year was Etched, Etched is currently in Dubai and is pointing for the February 19th Sophomore debut.

My other top 3 contenders that impressed me visually with dominating class and impressive speed include Into Mischief, Colonel John and Monba. My 5th top contender is Adriano, his Sophomore debut was very impressive a few weeks back.

Until I see something that turns my head this spring, those are my top 4 contenders.

Here’s a look at the anticipated spring schedules:

Etched: 2000 Guinees, UAE Derby
Into Mischief – Robert Lewis, Sham, Santa Anita Derby
Monba: Fountain of Youth, Florida Derby
Colonel John: Sham, Santa Anita Derby?

Other contenders that intrigue me with their Juvenile form race record and breeding include:

Miner’s Claim, undefeated in 2 starts at Woodbine, this half brother to Shaniko, has recorded workouts in Florida, he is targeting the Battaglia and Lane’s End this spring. Mark Casse is the trainer. Bet down to the favorite in both his Woodbine races.

Sebastian County: A full brother to the undefeated Cactus Ridge who went 4 for 4 a few years back. He is in capable hands, and has the right running style, showed heart and grit in all 3 of his races as a Juvenile. Training at Oaklawn, look for him in the Rebel Stakes on March 15th. Hennessy is the sire is suspect at getting a 10 furlong winner, but stamina is included in the pedigree through the mare Double Park who ran 3rd in the Santa Anita Oaks.

Halo Najib received a bad ride at Churchill Downs going to the lead and pressing fast fractions. His race at Gulfstream was a clunker, they are looking to boost his confidence on February 11th with the OBS Sales Stakes on February 11th. Possibly the Illinois Derby or Holy Bull after that?

El Gato Malo, has a sprinters pedigree, but has trained forwardly since October. Undefeated son of the El Corredor has been relaxing while routing, needs to step up in class. Very nice horse, small, explosive push-button speed reminds me of Go For Gin.

Cave’s Valley will go in this Saturday’s Whirlaway. Strong routing pedigree with A P Indy and Broodmare Sire Irgun won the Wood Memorial. Horse burst onto the racing seen with an explosive move last August at Saratoga. This horse can improve and I think they will take a conservative route that gets them into the starting gate. This horse is old school his 4th dam is Miss Newcastle, a son of Coaltown. Stamina influences include Princequillo on both sides of the pedigree with 3 influences of Secretariat in the 4th generation.

Court Vision was visually impressive but very slow as a Juvenile, has a good pedigree and good connections. I need to see more speed out of this horse

Anak Nakal is trained by Nick Zito and has lost to Etched before winning the Kentucky Juvenile at Churchill Downs, has been working forwardly and has the pedigree to run all day long.

Lietentant Ron, Blackberry Road, Cowboy Cal, Globalization, Signature Move, Dixie Chatter, Z Fortune, J Be K, Maimonides, and Texas Wildcatter all have interesting pedigrees and race records that show talent.

Which of the powerful Zayat Stables will make it to the Starting Gate!
Winstar Farm has Court Vision and Colonel John
Mandella has Into Mischief and Dixie Chatter

A few thoughts on the two of the early favorites: War Pass was very fast, questionable to get the 10 furlongs, and has never had a horse look him in the eye.

Pyro: This horse is eligible for NW of 2, until he wins a 2nd race, I’m not buying into the hype, he never threatened to win in the Champagne or the Breeder’s Cup. I need to see more, and the fact that Steve Asmussen is entering both Pyro and Z Fortune in the Risen Star is not a positive sign. Pyro already has the earnings, so look for Z fortune to be well intended in that spot.

Also the Public Relations is hot and heavy on Country Star. Since 2008 is an election year. Trust me, I knew Rags to Riches, I saw Rags to Riches and Country Star is no Rags to Riches.

Competitive Quality - Prep Races

2008-01-27T12:46:00.000-06:00

One of the most underrated Horse Racing books on Thoroughbred Class was published by James Quinn in 1987, Class of the Field, attempted to combine observational class with speed pars to produce a class number for each horse in the race.

One of the hidden gems of the book, was the Competitive Quality Scale which has received very little attention over the years, but 20 years later still is very useful in determining quality efforts from average performances.

There are a couple of reasons for this. The first is that the Competitive Quality Scale is based on observation, and everybody observes differently, and in my experiences, the observations can get a little distorted when money is on the race. The second reason I feel why the Competitive Quality Scale failed to gain a lot of momentum was that it was hard to implement, unless you were able to visually watch every race.

With modern technology and limiting the Ratings to Triple Crown and Stakes races, the leg-work is reduced and multiple race viewings allow for more accurate numbers.

The Competitive Quality scale attempts to classify horse races on a scale of 1-5, based on the actual running of the races, not the actual horses involved. This is the key component of the scale, $5,000 claimers can still have Competive Quality, even though the class of the race is low.

The best chart of the book details the 18 races shapes than can determine the competitiveness of the race. The 18 race shapes are then classified into 5 categories as follows:

1 = Non Competitive

2 = Mildly Competitive

3 = Competitive

4 = Strongly Competitive

5 = Unusually Competitive

Unusually competitive races are rare and the the Competitive Quality Scale should be shaped along a bell curve with 50% of the races labeled a 3. Roughly 5% of the races will get a 5, and less than 5% should receive a 1.

The Triple Crown Prep Schedule provides us with a chance to visually identify the races on a Competitive Quality Scale.

Let's use some recent races to illustrate the Competitive Quality Scale. The 2007 Breeder's Cup card is a great example of how the Competitive Quality Scale .

War Pass in the Juvenile is rated a CQ of 2. Definition number #3 is used as a defining point. "the frontrunner draws away from a contested pace after only a quarter of a mile or sooner, relaxes and wins unmolested thereafter."

In the Breeder's Cup Classic, Curlin receives a 2. Definition #4 is a pretty good match. "An off-pace horse or late-comer catches the leader near the pre-stretch or stretch call, and following a brief challenge and and several strides, one horse draws off to win.

My favorite race of the day the Breeder's Cup Distaff is a 5. Ginger Punches thrilling nose-to-nose, bumpin and grindin, affair with Hystericallady is one for the ages. Definition #16 says it all "front-runners sustain a fast pace under relentless pressuer, winning a fter a bruising final quarter-mile or repeated challenge. Often all physical energies have been exhausted. The horses competing in the end on courage.

Breeder's Cup Mile: Kip Deville gets a 3

Indian Blessing = 1

A more recent example is Saturday's Sunshine Millions 3-year old sprint. Bob Blackjack set a world record on the Santa Anita Expressway. Handicappers will be debating for weeks about his speed figure for the race. The race itself may continue to have debates about "how good the race was, or the "class" of the race. But the competitive Quality leaves no doubt, it was a "5", Bob Blackjack set a pressured pace and was challenged the length of the stretch, briefly losing the lead and then regaining the lead near the wire. A rare example of speed, determination, and grittiness. So while handicappers are debating the speed figures, and if he can stretch out, I log the race as a 5 in the CQ scale and move on.

For the Breeder's Cup the quality of the fields are still rated a 5, this is the best of the best competing for large purses. Speed Ratings are valuable after the fact when comparing equal quality performances, a higher speed rating or faster pace may be valuable, but in the short term, the visual Competitive Quality will be used to determine above-average performances.

Let's use the Kentucky Derby as a deeper example of the Competitive Quality Scale. The Derby field every year is strong, some years, stronger than others. But the actual race most year's is anti-climatic.

2007: Street Sense rates a 3. Hard Spun took a uncontested lead through fast fractions and Street Sense battled with him for a few strides before drawing off to victory. Hard Spun held 2nd easily.

2006: Barbaro rates a 2. Barbaro laid off the early flight of horses, approaches the leaders down the backstretch, took the lead entering the turn with no resistance and drew off to victory

2005: Giacomo rates a 3. Definition #10 is the best story. " two or more horses off pace and late comers arrive at the leaders as they are collapsing and continue to battle one another for a 16th of a mile or so, until one of them manages to wrestle clear and win.

2004: Smarty Jones rates a 2.

2003: Funny Cide rates a 3.

Personally I have to go all the way back to Winning Colors, Thunder Gulch and Alysheba to get a "4" on the competitive Quality Scale.

The last 5? Affirmed and Alydar in 1978.

I would love to see a Ginger Punch, Hysterical lady, knockdown, drag down, exhausting fight to the finish in the Kentucky Derby! My most exciting "5" in a Triple Crown race was 1989 when Sunday Silence and Easy Goer, gave each other the "eye-ball" and threw it down exchanging leads, in a bumping, all-out effort. As Class of the field mentions "5's" are rare and should be appreciated when they happen on the big stage, thank you Ginger Punch and Hysterical Lady!

Each week this Triple Crown season, I will post the CQ number for each prep race and follow the contenders visually. The CQ scale will isolate some of the individual performances within each of the races.

Class of the Field remains a very good source of determining the class of individual races.

The Continuum Theory - Evaluating Performances

2008-01-22T18:59:00.000-06:00

Which is a better performance? Running 3rd as a 4-1 (3rd) choice or running 4th at odds of 50-1 (9th)choice? With multiple variables such as odds, and number of betting entries, how does a handicapper compare performances across years to determine positive or negative performances?

The continuum theory proposes to answer this question by comparing horses expected finish to their actual finish with the result either a positive or negative number, with a continuum of 0, being equal to an expected finishing performance.

Once we have determined the continuum number for each horse’s performance. We can than begin to answer such questions as?

Has Todd Pletcher over-achieved or under-achieved in the Kentucky Derby?
What horse has over-achieved by betting odds the most in the Kentucky Derby?
How have horses who won as first time starters performed in the Kentucky Derby, compared to horses who have won as 2nd time starters?

I did not stay at a Holiday Inn last night, but I did propose this mathematical question to a financial analyst collegue, who then told me “The continuum Theory would work very well” to analyze this question.

First let’s dive into the formula, then we will put forth some disclaimers and caveats, before we begin to take a look at some of the numbers and try to answer some questions in regards to positive and negative Kentucky Derby performances

Once we are familiar with the formula we can then introduce the continuum theory and how it can be applied to determine positive and negative efforts. These positive and negative numbers can than be used to determine short term and longer impacts with multiple variables.

First let’s walk through a couple of examples. In 2004, Smarty Jones went off the 4-1 favorite and finished 1st.

Continuum = (Expected Finish (by odds) – Finish)* Odds

Smarty Jones = 1 (favorite) 1 – 1 (1st) 0 * 4 = 0
Limehouse = 14 (14th favorite – 4 (4th place) 10 * 41.70 = 417 (positive)
The Cliff’s Edge = 4 (4th favorite) – 5 (5th place) -1*8.20 = -82 (negative)

So in the example above Smarty Jones finished with a continuum of 0. He finished in the same position as was forecasted by the public. Limehouse exceeded expectations with a 4th place finish, when the public predicted him to finish in 14th place by the “odds”. That is a 417 positive continuum. The Cliff’s Edge finished 5th overall as the 4th favorite, but with 8.20 odds he ends up with a -82 negative continuum.

We than can compute the continuum for every horse for each year. I originally calculated the continuum theory for all starters since 1981 to match my database of past performances. This posed a problem with races prior to 2001 when they stopped coupling horses and eliminated "field" entries. In the 80's and 90's there were many years of 5 or 6 "field" entries and those horses had unusually low continuum theories because 5 or 6 horses get lumped with the same odds.

So for purposes of staying consistent we will concentrate on all results since since 2001. Let's take a look at some of the numbers:

From 2001 through 2007 there have been 129 starters in the Kentucky Derby. 6 horses have a continuum of Zero, meaning they have done finished exactly where the "odds" valued them to finish. Of those 6, Smarty Jones and Street Sense were favorites.

The worst performances, based on the continuum of expected finishing position and their actual finish by odds? the winner is High Limit who finished with a -247, Cowtown Cat pushed the challenge last year with a (negative) -217.

On the flip side who overachieved the most? Well you may guess Giacomo, who shocked the world at 50-1 in 2005. But that is 6th on the list. According the continuum theory, that same Derby, Closing Argument finished with a positive 1288. Fans who hit the Superfecta last year with Sedgfield will be happy to know that he is second with 1029. Deputy Glitters, Startac and Invisible Ink round the top 5 over achievers based on odds and final performance.

Now that we have developed a way at measuring performances individually, we can than group variable and see if patterns emerge.

How has Todd Pletcher done? Since 2001 Todd has had 15 starters in Louisville. With 5 horses showing positive scores, 1, horse with a zero, and 9 horses showing negative shores. Positive 5, Negative 9. That's a rough looking scoreboard, but there's always 2008!

How about horses who have 10 or more lifetime starts, entering the Derby. Since 2001, 18 horses have have 10 or more lifetime starts, 10 show positive continuum numbers and 8 show negative. Most of them within a pretty narrow range.

How about lightly raced horses. We will define a lightly raced horse as having 5 or fewer career starts leading into the Derby. Since 2001 32 horses have 5 or fewer career starts. 21 of them have negative continuum numbers. 2 are zero and 9 are positive. A ratio of 2 to 1 being negative. Might want to take a look again at horses like Dennis of Cork and other lightly raced winners. Barbaro did prove the exception in 2006 with his victory, despite only 5 lifetime starts.

For those of you who like Majestic Warrior, or possibly Colonel John, who might only get 2 starts leading into this years Derby, here's another way of looking at that strategy. Street Sense did break the "2-start" jinx last year, but I will have more on him later this week. He was trained a lot differently than other horses have been prepared in recent years. Getting back to the 2-starts. 59 horses have started in Kentucky with 2 races as a sophomore. Here are the results. 16 horses show positive continuum numbers. 6 Horses have a continuum of Zero. That leaves 37 horses with negative results, a 2-1 ratio not in favor of the 2 start rule. Tread lightly if backing those horses.

The continuum theory is not a "ranking" of numbers it's a way to look at the results and see if any trends and what ratio of positive horses to negative horses by group or individually. So when someone highlights the fact that Invisible Ink finished 3rd as a longshot for Todd Pletcher, you can counter back, Cowtown Cat has the 2nd worst continuum number for negativity.

One Bad Race - Does not spoil a career

2008-01-17T19:51:00.000-06:00

I'm in Database Purgatory. I'm still working on presenting the Continuum Theory and how we can use it to classify performances. I just have to link one database to another. Hopefully Monday we will be up and running. Meanwhile....

Many Handicappers have dismissed Cowboy Ca as a 2008 Kentucky Derby Contender based on one bad dirt race at Saratoga.

Here is a list of Kentucky Derby Starts, who had less than a stellar start to their racing career:

Bluegrass Cat 8th by 6 lengths in his racing debut

Jazil 6th by 15 lengths

Steppenwolfer 5th by 5

Bandini 6th by 18 lengths

Monarchos 8th by 12 lengths

Real Quiet 7th by 10 lenghts

Strike The Gold 9th by 21 lengths

Ferdinand 8th by 11 lengths

Go For Gin 5th by 9 lengths

Sea Hero 4th by 13 lengths

So Cowboy Cal who debuts on the dirt and finishes 7th by 11 lengths, may have just needed the race and the switch to Turf may have just been a surface to try Cowboy Cal on.

Notice also Todd Pletcher was the trainer of Bandini and Bluegrass Cat, who are recent derby starters with debuts that were sub-par.

Sea Hero, Ferdinand, Strike the Gold, and Go For Gin ended up being Kentucky Derby Winners since 1981 who have had bad debuts. Another Todd Pletcher trained horse who finished in the money was Invisible Ink who debuted with a 4th place finish 7 lengths. "Inky" ended up on the board on Derby day at monster odds.

Think about it, horses across the country debut with sub par races and win their next race at all levels of tracks. In fact many trainers use the the maiden race as a conditioner, or tightener or just gallop around the track to see what they have.

It stands to reason that trainers might do the same with some of the top prospects. Look at some of the trainers of the above horses. Charlie Whitingham, Mack Miller, Nick Zito, Bob Baffert, they have won their share of Stakes races over the years.

Next consider the pedigree of Cowboy Cal. the mare Texas Tammy is a 1/2 sister to Behrens, who won over 3 million dollars on the dirt a few years back.

The Broodmare Sire is Seeking the Gold. Seeking the Gold has sired Kentucky Derby starters Jazil and Bob and John. Seeking the Gold has also sired Breeder's Cup Distaff Winner Plesant Home and Dubai World Cup Winner Dubai Millenium.

The sire Giant's Causeway has sired better turf runners so far, but has shown that his horses seem to get better as they get older. Overall the book is still out if Giant's Causeway can sire a 9 furlong or 10 furlong "dirt" horse. His best progeny have been turfers in Shamardal, Aragorn, My Typhoon and Red Giant. He gets top mares and has almost 100 foals who will be 3-year olds this year.

Todd Pletcher has stated the next race for Cowboy Cal will be the Fountain of Youth on February 24th. If you think the Cowboy will finish 7th and not run a step, this will be a big mistake. His last 3 races have been powerful, laying just off the pace and then winning with much in reserve. Cowboy Cal will be a player in the Florida Prep races.

Will he wear roses in May? We still have over 100 days to find that out, meanwhile don't be quick to dismiss this "turf" horse come February 24th.

With his current form, conditioning, distance breeding. Cowboy Cal is one to keep on your watch list until Fountain of Youth day.

Fer

Kentucky Derby Prep Recaps

2008-01-13T09:25:00.000-06:00

Some quick notes on the weekend Kentucky Derby 2008 prep races.

El Gato Malo is a nice horse, the the true story in this race was the suicidal pace on the front end by Massive Drama and Tale of the Cat, throw in Sierrra Sunset and 1:07 and change was the 6 furlong split. El Gato Malo got the perfect trip. He is a nice Horse and seems to be able to rate which is more Tale of A Cat and Massive Drama can say.

The Lecomte was a competitive race and Z Fortune ran a nice race off the pace, he has put together 3 nice races now. Some mid race moves made this a mildly competitive race and the fact that Z Fortune was able to rate and make a move outside horses shows that he has some racing ability. Overall Z fortune is not among the top 15 contenders and could be exposed against some tougher competition.

Well, so much for sportsmanship. The top 3 West Coast horses will avoid each other in the next round of races. The 3 California top contenders have mapped out their races for the spring. Into Mischief has had 2 workouts since the Cash Call Futurity and will race on February 1st in the Beverly Lewis. This looks like a 3 race prep with the Santa Anita Derby beind the final prep.

Meanwhile, Colonel John will wait until March 1st to make his 2008 debut, this means 2 preps before the Kentucky Derby.

El Gato Malo's next race will be March 15th. Hmmm must be just random luck that all 3 are missing each other.

Meanwhile, it looks like War Pass, Majestic Warrior and now Colonel John are going the 2 race prep route to get to the Derby. Just because Street Sense won last year, this is still a bad sign.

El Gato Malo has decided on March 15th for his next race.

Late Developing Derby Contenders

2008-01-07T20:43:00.000-06:00

Derby Fever starts to hit the backstretch every January with an impressive debut, or maiden win by a first time starter. Although hope springs eternal, the reality is that horses making their debut as a 3 year old, face long odds in even making the starting gate, let alone winning the Kentucky Derby.

Last year Curlin created a buzz and his Triple Crown trail run was impressive, but in the Kentucky Derby he was 3rd beaten 9 lengths and he never threatened to win at any time in the race. Curlin is probably the best example of a horse lacking the “experience” or juvenile form, he proved to be an immense talent, coming into Kentucky with a perfect record, and pool 3 favorite in the Kentucky Derby Futures, he clearly lacked the seasoning to be ready for a 20 horse field and pace pressure for ten furlongs.

I have data based every starting horses who has ran in the Kentucky Derby since 1981 and now have 26 years of data. The explosive growth of horses nominated to the Triple Crown and average starting size of the Derby field been consistent since the early 1980’s and now it is a forgone conclusion that 19 or 20 horses will make the field each year.

Let’s get to the data and see what kind of odds these “late developing horses” are facing in their quest for the roses.

Since 1981 473 Starters have made the Kentucky Derby Starting Gate. Of those 473 starters 25 (1%) had no racing starts as a Juvenile. Since 2000 the trend has been for trainers to have fewer starts for horses to keep their horse “fresh” for the grinding Triple Crown Trail.

Since 2000 8 of the 148 starters have had no starts as a juvenile (1%). Including at least one horse in each of he last 5 years (2003-2007) In the last five years we have seen Atswhatimtalknbout-2003 , Song of the Sword 2004 , Greeley’s Galaxy 2005, Showing Up 2006 and Curlin 2007. The trend has been for one late developer make the starting gate, as the old saying goes if you throw enough paint on the wall, some of it might stick.

Horses who have finished in the “superfecta” a top 4 finish since 1981 include: Strodes Creek 2nd in 1994, Reinvested who finished 3rd in 1982, Curlin 3rd in 2007, Pulpit 4th in 1997, Atswhatimtalknbout 4th in 2003.

When is a good month for a Kentucky Derby Contender to hit the Racetrack? Looking the the data overall from 1981 – 2007, again 473 starters. Here is a breakdown of what month each starter made their first career start:

Month of First Career Start
1981- 2007
July – 84 starters
June – 70
August – 69
October – 54

How has the Kentucky Derby Starting gate changed in the since 1990 and since 2000?

Month of First Career Start
1990 – 2007
July – 56 Starters
August – 55
June – 40
September and October 35

Since 1990 July is still the most common debut month, but August is just “1” start behind, June goes off he table and October and September have narrowed the gap on July.

Since 2000 it the racing game continues to change:

Month of First Career Start
2000 – 2007
July – 27 Starters
August - 25
September - 18
October – 18

There is less of a spread, on number of starters, with more starters waiting until August, September and October.

Still with me? Now that we know which Debut months have the most “Starters” let’s take a look at the top 3 finishers and see if any trends are developing.

Since 1981, 81 horses have finished in the money (ITM).

June has 70 starters, which is 2nd overall, but leads with ITM finishers (16).
July and October are next with 14 ITM finishers each.

Nothing real surprising- how about since 2000? The game seems to be changing in the last 8 years.

Of the 24 horses who have finished ITM since 2000, 8 of those horses made their debut in October, July has 4. The October impact has gathered momentum since 2000, with 8 ITM finishers out of 18 starters!

To recap horses running big first time out in Januaryand February may look flashy but they face long odds in even getting to the Derby Starting gate, the recent trend has seen a starter in each of the last 5 years.

Trainers seem to be holding their top Juveniles back from the starting gate, waiting until August and September for their career debut.

Beware of the October runners!

A quick list of October Debut runners for 2008 include:

Golden Yank, Monba, Into Mischief, Racecar Rhapsody, and Z Fortune.

Next Week we will introduce the "continum" theory, and how we can use it to detail "good" and "bad" derby performances.

Cowboy Up! - Cowboy Cal

2008-01-01T17:58:00.000-06:00

Cowboy Cal’s 3rd consecutive victory on Tuesday in the Tropical Derby should start to put him on the short list of 2008 Kentucky Derby Contenders.

As of December 24th Cowboy Cal was listed at 100-1 in the Wynn Future Book Derby Odds. Why the long odds on Cowboy Cal?

Many horseplayers have dismissed Cowboy Cal’s two dominating turf wins as “proof” he can’t run on the dirt. Does one poor start of the dirt mean that Cowboy Cal won’t be able to switch his brilliant turf form back to the dirt in the coming months?

Let’s take a look at the some of the horses, who in recent years have raced on the turf before running in the Derby:

Since 2000 there have been 148 starters in the Kentucky Derby. Of those starters 34 have raced at least once on the turf before starting at Churchill Downs. Here is the breakdown by number of starters each year:
2000 – 5
2001 – 4
2002 – 7
2003 – 4
2004 – 5
2005 – 2
2006 – 6
2007 – 2

That’s 23% of the starters in the last 8 years, if you figure that the starting gate will have 19 or 20 starters it figures that the 2008 Kentucky Derby will have at least 2 starters who will have raced at least one race on the turf. Of the leading 2008 Derby Contenders, Cowboy Cal is one of the few horses that have attempted the grassy surface.

Many may assume that many of the turf runners have failed on the turf and moved to the dirt after unsuccessful turf attempts? Not so Fast! Here’s a list of horses to have tried the turf and moved on to run well in the Kentucky Derby:

Aptitude – Ran 2nd in the 2000 Kentucky Derby
Thunder Blitz – 4th in the 2001
War Emblem – Won 2002 Kentucky Derby
Peace Rules – 3rd in 2003
Imperialism – 3rd in 2004
Barbaro – Won 2006 Kentucky Derby
Steppenwolfer – 3rd in 2006
Sedgefield – 4th in 2007

With the changing racing game of the 2000’s the most recent years are the most valid to include in this study. Charismatic in 1999 had also previously raced on the turf prior to his Churchill Triumph. That shouldn’t shock most racing fans, Charismatic had tried almost everything except free pony rides on his way to the Kentucky Derby.

So with 2 winners, 1 second, 3 thirds, and 2 superfectas in the last 8 years, chances are a turf runner or 2 will run in this year’s Derby.

The sire of Cowboy Cal is Giant’s Causeway. Giant’s Causeway was the European “iron horse” who came over and ran 2nd to Tiznow in the Breeder’s Cup Classic. Many of Giant’s Causeways runners have experienced success on the Turf. A few of his runners have been able to transfer that form to dirt. Noble Causeway has already represented Giant’s Causeway in the 2005 Kentucky Derby.

Breeder’s and owner’s have been positive about Giant’s Causeways chances of siring a Classic winner on the Dirt. Since 2004, 34 horses sired by Giant’s Causeway have been nominated to the Triple Crown.

The broodmare sire of Cowboy Cal is Seeking The Gold. Seeking the Gold ran in the 1988 Kentucky Derby and has sired recent derby starters Bob and John and Jazil , both who ran in 2006.

Cowboy Cal is trained by Todd Pletcher, annually one of the leading trainers this decade, Todd has yet to capture his first Kentucky Derby Win. He has had 19 previous starters in the Derby, none of them had previously run on the turf before running at Louisville. With 19 previous starters and failing to finish in the top 4 with 5 horses last year, maybe Todd, is ready to mix it up in 2008 with Cowboy Cal?

Visually, watching Cowboy Cal his last 3 races, he has matured and is now a better horse. Those who think just because he ran a disappointing 7th place finish in his first start sprinting. Take a 2nd look. Cowboy Cal has dominated his last 3 races, and with his pedigree - the connections, may have been looking at bigger goals than just sprinting as a 2 year old at Saratoga.

The next start for Cowboy Cal is scheduled to be the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park in February. With Tuesdays win, his price in Vegas, figures to drop.

Next week we will take a look at late developing horses. Derby Fever usually heats up in January with some impressive maiden wins.

Ten Furlongs 2007 2 Year Old Awards

2008-01-01T06:35:00.000-06:00

The 2007 Eclipse Awards are just a few weeks away. With last weeks running of the Cash Call Futurity, all of the Graded Stakes have been run for 2007.
Here is this observers top 5 ballot. Note that my selections are based what I saw on the racetrack in 2007, and just like any Stock Prospectus States: "past performance does not guarantee future results"
War Pass:
Undefeated son of champion sprinter Cherokee Run capped a 4/4 year with a splashy front-running victory in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. His Daily Racing Form lines look very impressive, in 4 races War Pass have been first at every call (18) times. Closed the year with back to back speed figures over 100 and has already earned 1.3 million winning 2 Grade 1 races.
Into Mischief:
Talented son of Harlan's Holiday, bulled his way to a front-running score in a maiden race, before running 2nd in Hollywood Prevue. Rant to a 1 length win in Cash Call Futurity. Cash Call Futurity drew 13 horses and was the 2nd toughest race behind the Breeder's Cup Juvenile for field quality and depth.
Pyro:
Ran second in two Grade 1's to War Pass. Never looked like a winner in either race and mostly passed tired horses. Broke maiden at Churchill Downs covering the 6 furlongs in 1:09 and change. Has 3 losses to War Pass, with one lifetime win.
Colonel John:
Runner-up in deep Cash Call Futurity field. Drew off to a visually impressive win over a very suspect field in the Real Quiet Stakes. Maiden Victory was powerful winning by 4 lengths while being ridden in hand late.
Salute The Sarge:
Grade 3 winner in Hollywood Juvenile, Added 2nd Graded Stakes win in Best Pal Stakes at Delmar. Was also able to record 2nd place finishes in Del Mar Futurity and Norfolk Stakes. Gritty runner has faced fields of 11, 9, 13, 11 and 10 in 6 starts. Showed a nose for the wire winning his first three starts.