7 Days

The 2009 Kentucky Derby can't get here any faster.  Contenders are dropping fast.  In the last month we have seen Old Fashioned, The Pamplemousse get sidelined by injures.  Now the Quarter Crack of Quality Road is acting up again.  It was nice to see Advice run a big Lexington last week he was in my very early list of contenders and many of them are still pointing to the Triple Crown Races, even Gone Astray might get to the Preakness with a big Withers Run.

Simply Zensational

While the talk of racing is Dunkirk.  Zensational's performance on Saturday was even better blowing a 1:08 and 3/5 on the fake dirt and galloping out like a beast.  Next up the San Felipe possibly.  Remember  Congaree had one start as a 2 year and then won a mile race 8.5 furlongs and then Wood.  Zensational had one race as a 2 year old.  Broke his maiden.  Next start he will be the lone speed in the San Felipe and then either the Wood the the Coolmore Lexington?

Top 10:

Imperial Council

Zensational

Break Water Edison

Pioneerof The Nile

Capt. Candyman Can

I Want Revenge

Advice

Gone Astray

Dunkirk

West Side Bernie

San Rafael

Square Eddie's return off a 83 day layoff highlights this year's San Rafael.  A competitive field is shaping up with some recent maiden winner's moving up in class.  Square Eddie has been training steadily since late December and his recent 6 furlong workout last weekend should have him on edge to fire a strong race off the bench.  With synthetic experience at Keeneland and at the Breeder's Cup, the surface should pose no problem for Eddie.  Graded Earnings are not needed for Square Eddie, so don't look for an all-out effort.  With Smart Strike and El Gran Senor in the pedigree he should be able handled the distance easily and he has enough tactical speed to stay behind, to what could be a very contested pace.

The Pamplemousse had a nice maiden win last out, finishing strong after running close to the pace and setting fast fractions.  Alex Solis stays aboard and cuts back to one mile with a nice 3 furlong bullet this week to ratchet that speed.

The horse that may be a little over played is Brother Keith.  He definitely is a horse to watch following his maiden win last fall.  But off the layoff, on a new surface, against horses with multiple races, he will have to be much the best and may not be ready for this level.

Fiddler's Afleet ships in from New York, seems to have tactical speed and with the Quiet American and Afleet blood, may like the synthetic surface, a quick turn of foot, if he can rate at all, he may run further than people think.

There is a lot of speed in this race.  The pace should be contested.  If Square Eddie can lay 5 to 6 lengths off the contested pace, he should be able to use his foundation and grinding speed to pick up the pieces down the lane.

Dixie Belle:

Silver City figures to be  a short price in an evenly matched field at Oaklawn Park.  Shipping in from the Fairgrounds with some nice recent workouts.  If he takes to the track, he should be able to come 3 to 4 lengths off the pace and make his run.

Spot Play:

My spot play of the weekend is at the Fairgrounds Saturday.  Dumar and Coal Baron are both over 5-1 morning lines.  I will bet both to win.

RedBoarding the LeComte

A busy week on the Derby trail.  Here are some observations on a Sunday night.

The LeComte was a strangely run race. Friesan Fire who's morning line was 6/1 was bet down to 5/2 based on some nice numbers on the Thorograph Sheets.   The race was not run to form.  Au Moon who had closed into a hot pace in his maiden win at Churchill Downs took the lead at the start and had to work to get rid of Citizen down the backstretch.  At this point Friesan Fire was in 3rd place.

On the turn Firesan Fire who refused to rate in his last race, swung out and with all the closers laying too far back was given a three length lead at the top of the stretch and was never challenged late.

The fractions were slow 24 and 48 3/5  with 1:13 and change for the 6 furlongs time.  I'm not sure if Friesan Fire improved, or was just able to lay off the pace.  When a stretch runner is on the lead for the first time like Au Moon, the results are usually not good for that horse.  

Firesan Fire should be able to keep on improving being by A.P. Indy.  The Dehere on the male side adds some speed.  His form is flattering those of Breakwater Edison and Hello Broadway who both defeated him in the Nashua.

Patena rated nicely and closed well.  But never really quickened, if they are trying to rate the horse he may have a little room for improvement.

The mystery horse is still Indygo Mountain.  As much promise as he showed in his Churchill Downs start, he broke slow and then never got involved at all.  I'm not sure how well intended he as in this spot.  If we works out in the next 7 days he's probably healthy and the race is a throw-out.  If it takes 10 days or so to get back on the track, he may start running short of time to develop his conditioning level.

Ken McPeek:

For those unfamiliar withy Ken McPeek, you better start noticing.  He has developed into one of the top trainers in the country.  This past week he turned out 3 very nice looking 3 year olds.  Theregoesjojo defeated the nice horses in Quality Road and Obligingly.  Don't discount Quality Road, Alan Garcia got into a tenacious duel with Obligingly for three calls.  Both horses may have gotten a lot out of that race.  Depending on how much time off they get both may need a month off after that hard, grueling effort.

Big Country took a rail trip and patient ride from Kent Desourmeaux to a win on Thursday at Gulfstream.

Danger to Society made it two for two with a nice win on the split have of the allowance race on Thursday.  The Danger to Society race was much more impressive for Danger to Society than Big Country win.  Idol Maker took the lead and was dogged most of the way around the track, Idol Maker may need a sprint race to develop some of that speed.  He has started out his career with 3 straight routes.

Right now I would rank the McPeek runners.  JoJo, Danger to Society and then Big Country.

Meanwhile out West Bob Baffer had a horse (Turk) at 2/5 who was nipped on the wire by a solid colt at 7 furlongs trained by Dick Mandella.

I'm surprised at trainers running their horses at 7 furlongs.  Both Turk and Quality Road are quality movers, both set tremendous fractions, and both suffered losses late in the stretch after setting rapid fractions for 6 furlongs.  In general the 7 furlong races are very demanding.  When you lose them, they left a lot on the track and did not get the win.  I would point Quality Road to the Gotham and possibly a rider switch.  Alan Garcia has Break Water Edison, Charitable Man, Quality Road all lined up as possible rides.

Workouts:

Getting back on the Work Tab last week was Shug's very nice colt Imperial Council who worked out twice on the week.  On the shelf since late summer, looks like he still about 3 works away from a race. 

Still Absent from the Workout Tab?  Charitable Man, Gone Astray.  Also Point Encounter has not worked out since his win on December 26th at Santa Anita.  When horses start going 15 days away from working out in January it's not a good sign.

Racing Schedule:

Here is the latest Break down on some of the early season targets:

Next Saturday in the San Rafael.  Bobby Frankel thrown maiden winner Brother Keith into the fire against Square Eddie who has been working nicely out west.  Expect a small field in the San Rafael.

Break Water Edison and Hello Broadway will be matched up possibly for the third time in the Hutcheson on January 30th.  Watching them develop over the next 3 months could be something, both have a strong bottom, nice trainers and recent workouts.  Maybe Imperial Council or will Shug try to point for  a NW of 2 at Gulfstream

Big Drama is going to crank it up on January 31st in the Holy Bull and possibly West Side Bernie?

Risen Star next for Firesan Fire, Southwest Stakes will get Old Fashioned.

Silver City is pointing for the Dixie Belle this Friday at Oaklawn.

Speed Figure Progression in Kentucky Derby Starters

The progression of speed figures as horses lead up to the Kentucky Derby gained greater scrutiny in recent years, most of that discussion has centered on a certain crop being "slow" or how many horses have earned 100+ Beyer Speed figures going into the Derby.  

"Beyer" speed figures were introduced into past performances for the Kentucky Derby for the first time in 1992.   Beyer speed figures have generated lots of online discussions the past few years.  Some of those discussions focus on "Synthetic" figures are too low, a second concern has been that Beyer speed figures do not account for pace.  The third issue has been that some figures are arbitrarily adjusted to a projected speed figure, if the number does not appear to be in-line with other performances.  A 4th issue has been Beyer re-adjusting speed figures at a later date ala Summer Doldrums a few years back when he subsequently did not re-produce a high figure in his next few starts.

For purposes of Speed Figure Progression in developing three year olds, and specifically three year olds who later make the Kenttucky Derby Starting gate, I will only focus on the number that was posted in the Daily Racing Form.

Many different theories have been proposed about speed figure development, the "bounce" theory, pairing or matching a high speed figure and then regressing in the next start.  To start the discussion I wanted to get some of the basic data into a spreadsheet and start looking at some of the numbers.  This is hopefully the first in the series of analysis of Speed Figure Development that hopefully I can combine Breeding and age of the horse later into a more thorough analysis of Speed Figure progression.

Since I have no pre-conceived ideas of what the average speed figure is a for a Derby Starter and what that progression has been in the past, I needed to develop some guidelines to start the discussion.

First, since I have every horse who has started in the Kentucky Derby in a Database since 1970.  I then isolated every Kentucky Derby Starter since 1992 the year Beyer speed figures were introduced into the Past Perforance lines.  I then entered every speed figure for every horse, start by start into an excel spreadsheet.  Example  Big Brown last year got enered as 90, 106, 106.  In his first lifetime start he ran a "90" Beyer, in his 2nd and 3rd lifetime start he ran 106 Beyers.  I entered this for every horse who has started in the Derby since 1992.  For horses who race 3 1/2 or 4 furlong races, or races in Europe when they do not have a speed figure, I left that start number blank.

Here are the results for the Average Speed Figure obtained by all Kentucky Derby Starters since 1992:

1st Start:  69.31

2nd Start: 78.95

3rd Start: 82.74

4th Start: 85.69

5th Start: 88.85

6th Start: 90.70

7th Start: 91.80

8th Start: 93.67

9th Start: 93.16

There is a steady progression and improvement for Beyer speed figures in each start up until the 9th start, for all Derby Starters since 1992.  I would not have expected the steady upward swing since this encompasses 16 years of racing and over 280 starters at over 30 racetracks on Dirt, Turf and Synthetic surfaces.  Notice the big improvement in 2nd time starters from First Time Starters in this group of starters, nearly a 9 point increase in the average speed figure.

Since Averages can be tilted by high or low numbers in a small group of horses, I then had excel calculate the median for each start number.  The median is calculated as half the speed figures being over a certain number and half being under a number and can smooth out the high and low speed figures.

1st Start: 70

2nd Start: 80

3rd Start: 84

4th Start: 88

5th Start: 90

6th Start: 93

7th Start: 93

8th Start: 94

9th Start: 92

What's interesting here is that the median is actually a little higher in the 6th, 7th, 8th start than the average.  This is logical in that we are working with a specific subset of horses, which is Kentucky Derby Starters, a horse cannot reach the gate without being competitive at a certain speed against a high class of horse.  The 2nd explanation is that horses could possibly being starting to peak or gain more consistency after 4 or 5 races.  A more cynical analyst could suggest that the "Beyer Boys" are projecting high speed figures for these races and the monster feeds itself.  That will be looked at in the future, for now we are sticking with the facts.

Let's take a look at the Max Speed figures by start since 1992.  This will show which start number horses have popped some pretty impressive "Beyers".  I will also put a "face" to some of the numbers by listing the horse who achieved that figure in that Career Start Number.

1st: 107   - Pulpit in 1997 blew away a maiden field at Gulfstream Park by 7 lengths

2nd: 108-  Pulpit blazed again in his 2nd lifetime start at Gulfstream going 1 mile and 16th

3rd: 112 - Indian Charlie in 1998 one mile allowance race at Santa Anita

4th: 111 -  Indian Charlie in the Santa Anita Derby in his 4th lifetime Start

5th: 120 - Bellamy Road freaking in the wood in 2005

6th:  114 - Unbrided's Song in the Florida Derby in 1996.

A few observations about these six high speed figures.  All four of the horses above were Kentucky Derby Favorites, all four of the horses lost.  Did they peak too soon?

Secondly all four were virtual wire to wire winners.  Can a closer obtain a high speed figure?  Do horses freak on the front end?  

Now that we have seen some of the Fastest horses by career start number.  Let's take a look at some of the horses who took longer to develop.

Sweetnorthernsaint started his career with a "12" speed figure in his debut.

Real Quiet earned a 74 in his 2nd start

War Emblem a 83 in his 3rd lifetime outing

Lawyer Ron earned a 84 in his 4th career start

Eventually with a separate subset of starters we could compare Kentucky Derby Starters against other 3 year olds, or a group of 4 year olds.  Many studies could be broken into sub groups to determine any types of speed figure progression as a horse matures on the road to Kentucky.

Let's take a look at some recent maiden winners and compare them to horses in the past with similar Speed Figures.  Opening day at Santa Anita Point Encounter earned a "Beyer" speed figure of 94. 

Since 1992 14 horses have debuted with a Beyer speed figure of 94 or higher and reached the starting gate.  Again we can only look at the horses who achieved high speed early and made the starting gate, not the horses who fell by the tracks on the way to Louisville:

Below are the horse with their Debut speed figure along with their 2nd lifetime start speed figure:

Horse Debut 2nd

Liquidity 94 59

Curlin 101 97

Showing Up 97 100

Spanish Chestnut 94 84

High Fly 97 94

Birdstone 99 78

Lion Heart 96 103

Funny Cide 96 103

Fusaichi Pegasus 95 95

Pulpit 107 108

Diligence 95 91

Afternoon Deelites    99 101

Holy Bull 101 91

Disposal 97 99

Six of the 14 horses improved in their 2nd lifetime start.  Two horses Fusaichi Pegasus and Funny Cide ended up winning the Kentucky Derby.  It will see how Notonthesamepage progresses in his next start after earning a 115 speed figure in the Spectacular Bid Stakes last weekend.

Can any conclusions be drawn from this limited subset of numbers?  I think the most surprising scenario is that there is up to a 10 point jump on average in horses 2nd lifetime start.  In the future, I will revisit this study with the races being broken into what age and what time of year did they achieve these speed figures.

Since Beyer speed numbers are projected there may be a bias against lightly raced horses and many speed figures for the Maiden and Allowance races are slower than if the horse were to achieve the same final time on the same day in the same distance of race.

There may be such a thing as too fast too early, many horses will multiple high speed figures back to back, failed to produce the same effort in the Kentucky Derby itself.

Spectacular Bid and Count Fleet recap:

This past weekend marked a couple of stakes races for newly turned 3 year olds.  The Spectacular Bid stakes at Gulfstream Park featured a coming out party for Notonthesamepage who absolutley freaked and ran a 1:08 and change for 6 furlongs.  I was not overly impressed with the field going into the race, but Notonthesamepage was never in doubt.  After working a whole in the wind for over a month in Florida, he seems to be going good and the next stop is the mile distance of the Fountain of Youth.

Todd Pletcher unveiled Checklist who ran 6 furlong in 1:10 and change in hand.  Very impressive and jockey Johnny V was sitting very chilly the entire race.  His development will be interesting.  Todd Pletcher after many years of watching his 2 year olds burn out, has kept some of his top horses in the barn the past couple of years and waited for winter to bring them back.

Meanwhile anyone who thinks Haynesfield is going to make the Derby or even be a factor in the race may want to rethink that.  A slow final time, slow fractions and weak field.  Add in the Speighstown breeding and you have a nice horse, but not Kentucky material.

The LeComte:

the first Graded Stakes for Sophomores is run this weekend down in the Swamp.  Past history suggests that this race is usually not a factor in determining the Kentucky Derby field.  But this year does feature some very promising breeding and training connections.

Friesan Fire and Indygo mountain are both sons of A. P. Indy.

Au Moon is by Malibu Moon, who is a son of A. P. Indy

Patena has A. P. Indy as a Broodmare Sire

Dynamic For is a son of Dance Master out of  Dynaformer mare.

Very strong breeding for a G3 in early January.

Indygo Mountain has recevied the most hype.  His 6 length victory at Churchill Downs in November put him on many top 10 derby lists.  Purchased for 600K at the Keeneland September yearling sale he closed for 2nd in his career debut.  In his 2nd race he stretched out while running outside horses and galloped out very nicely for trainer Bret Calhoun.  A minor setback caused him to scratch a few weeks ago in the race won by Uno Mas over Friesan Fire.  

Au Moon is a very interesting horse a very nice win at a mile and 16th and now cutting back to 1 mile, he gets the speed to run at and was bet down to 12-1 in the race won by Indygo Mountain Race 2 races back finishing 10th by 16th lengths.

Dynamic Force won a turf race in his last start at the Fairgrounds.  His first two races were on the synthetic surface at Woodbine, with 3 workouts since his last race and Jesse Campbell up, I expect him to run a strong race.

Patena is another Woodbine shipper, first race on Synthetic.  By Seeking The Gold he may like the dirt surface.  His Display win in his last race was a hard fought win over a filly Hooh Why.  Three of his four lifetime races have had 10 or more horses.  His seven furlong win in November was one of the more impressive performances by a Juvenile at Woodbine this fall.  

I expect Indygo Mountain to win.  Look for the two Canadian shippers to run very well this Saturday.

Top 20 Contenders for January 2nd

The best thing about Freshman, is that they become sophomores.

With January 1st now behind us on the calendar we take a look at Ten Furlongs list of top 20 contenders as we start the month of January.


This year's crop has shown a lot more "speed" according to Beyer speed figures. A caution should be noted that many of the top speed figures have been earned in Maiden victories and Allowance races.


Old Fashioned won the Remsen Stakes in November with a speed figure of 96. In 2007 Court Vision picked up the Remsen victory with a speed figure of 76.


On the negative side. Pioneerof The Nile recorded a speed figure of 86 in the Cash Call Futurity, which was the slowest speed figure in some 20 years of the Cash Call/Hollywood Futurity.


Midshipman's win in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile earned a figure of 91. War Pass recorded a 113 in the same race in 2007.


Other top "figures" for this crop include Silver City's 101 in a Churchill Downs Allowance race. Point Encounter earning a 94 opening day at Santa Anita in a maiden win. Indygo Mountain earned a strong figure in his big Churchill Downs victory. Old Fashioned cranked out a pair of 101's as a Juvenile.


Before we take a look at my personal starting gate of 20 contenders. Let's talk about what my evaluation is going to be based on. In January I will take a longer term view, focusing on runners who either have earnings to make the starting gate, or contenders based on breeding and running style that might be able to reach the starting gate the first Saturday in May.


For the record I do not think a couple of the top contenders in Dubai are going to come back and be a factor in Kentucky. Vineyard Haven is a Florida bred. Midshipman is by Unbridled's Song and the heavy training in Dubai might jut do him in. I tend to like Regal Ransom more than those two high priced juveniles in the Sheikh's stable of contenders.


#1 Square Eddie. Square Eddie has the earnings, experience and foundation that a lot of the top contenders lack. Bred both top and bottom to get the 10 furlongs demanded by the Derby. Sire Smart Strike has sired champion Curlin and strong route turfer English Channel. Broodmare Sire El Gran Senor has a history of producing long distance horses on both the dirt and turf. Both horses have produced strong stoudt horses and seem to withstand training. With over $700,000 in career earnings he already has the money needed to reach the starting gate. The connections are solid. Doug O'Neill has been on the Derby Trail in recent years with Great Hunter and owner Paul Reddam has been down this road with Wilko and Great Hunter. With strong works already posted in December, Eddie should be fresh, fit and ready to start in January with the San Felipe on January 17th his first likely target.


#2 Belive In Hope. Graded Stakes experience as a Juvenile, has run against the best of his generation. Sire Thunder Gulch adds some distance breeding to his pedigree. His "Mama" Hope Rises was a Stakes winning sprinter. This pedigree has a good mixture of speed, toughness and solid racing experience to the starting gate. This horse is on the bubble right now. Having to scratch out of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile with a "fever". Last week it was revelaed on calracing.com by trainer Ron Ellis that the horse is still not on the work tab because of a bad "blood count". It's still early in January, so he can stay off the tab for another week or two, but in most cases if a horse is not on the workout tab by Mid January it's too late to wear roses. Owning connection Jay Em Ess stable has had some solid runners over the years including champion Declan's Moon a few years back.


#3 Break Water Edison. Solid pedigree, top connections and a "break-out" performance in the Nashua. John Kimmel has kept this son of Lemon Drop Kid in steady training since his win in the Nashua. With 4 races and 2 routes as a Juvenile owns a strong "training" edge over many top contenders in Florida. With that experience may opt to go straight into the 9 furlong Holy Bull at the end of January. But in the past Kimmel took the Tampa Bay route to the derby with a nice horse in Wheelaway.


#4 Silver City. 700K yearling has a 101 speed figure in his 3rd lifetime start and recently drilled 1 mile at the Fairgrounds. May see him in the LeComte. Very fast, but the Unbridled's Song breeding will be very tricky. Still an exciting contender who should love the Oaklawn surface and short stretch.


#5 Indygo Mountain. Strong Breeding. Impressive win at Churchill Downs. Owner guided Alysheba to the Derby victory in 1987. His maiden victory was one of the top 5 dominant maiden victories from this juvenile crop. Look for this long-strider at the Fair Grounds and Bret Calhoun tries to keep Silver City and Indygo Mountain separate in their races.


#6 Old Fashioned. Strong pedigreee, proven connections and fast speed figures. Looks to take the 2-start route to Kentucky through Oaklawn Park. Undefeated and yet to be challenged for the early lead. Larry Jones has been to 2 straight derbies with Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Son of Unbridled's Song will have to keep to a light training schedule and develop a quicker pace if he wants to stay undefeated.


#7 Imperial Council. Strong pedigree, lightly raced with only two juvenile starts. Bet down to 30-1 in Kentucky Derby Futures betting seems to be one of the few horses of this crop with the "it" factor. Recorded first workout on Monday 3 furlongs down in Florida. Has no Graded Stakes earnings. In the past Shug McGaughey has used the Wood Memorial as the final Derby prep, will he stay on the New York road? or will he throw a change up and point to the Florida Derby as the final Prep? Has defined a couple of Key Races. In his debut he broke slow and dueled for 6 1/2 furlongs with Hello Broadway. In his second race he defeated American Dance who came back to win his next start and Professor Z who was defeated by 7 lenghts to Imperial Council and came back to win 2 straight races.


#8 Idol Maker. Todd Pletcher trained. Regressed in Remsen Stakes after sharp debut at 1 mile. Pedigree figures to improve and has already recorded a workout at PMM. Earned a 80+ speed figure in his maiden win. Worked a nice 5 furlong week in the past week. Could be pointing to the Holy Full at 9 furlongs at the end of January.


#9 Regal Ransom. Forgotten about after Norfolk flop as the favorite. May not have liked polytrack surface when shipped across country gets a mulligan for that effort. Son of Distorted Humor was ultra impressive at Saratoga in his maiden win. Worked out three times in November before going to Dubai. He may be the horse that emerges from Dubai with the best chance.


#10 Gone Astray. Shug McGaughey trained, gained experience as a Juvenile, figures to improve at 3 with solid juvenile foundation. Great racing pedigree. With four races as a juvenile, should be able to fire a couple of strong efforts off the bench.


#11 Quality Road. Impressive maiden win and strong breeding on female side of the pedigree. Solid speed figure in debut race. Needs to hit the Derby road quickly with no graded earnings. Florida may have the deepest and most competitive group of lightly raced horses in training this winter.


#12 Stimulus Plan. Slow fused son of Jump Start should get better at 3. Mark Casse is a solid trainer. Should love the long stretch of the Fairgrounds. Closed for third in the Delta Futurity, added distance should old help horse who has 4 route races in his resume.


#13. West Coast Bernie. Has shipped and run competitively in strong Juvenile campaign. Sire Bernstein is a son of Storm Cat. Storm Cat in the male line has had a tough road to the derby in recent years.


#14. Bruce N Autumn. Dale Romans trained. Broke maiden on turf. Looked impressive in long dirt start in sprint race, strong upside. Sire is Lemon Drop Kids, who is a son of the strong stamina influence Kingmambo. Training in Florida may have to ship for a spot.


#15. Big Drama. Already has the earnings. Love the tactical speed. Has proved routing ability. Wintering in Florida. Light on the pedigree side, but have some stamina influences in his pedigree. Mare has produced 6 winners from 6 foals. In shape, has the Derby earnings. Versatile running style should have him in the hunt in all derby preps.


#16. Pioneerof The Nile. Son of Empire Maker can run all day. Dead game closer should relish a strong pace. Might only have 2 preps in Sophomore campaign. Showed a new dimension when running closer to the leaders in the Cash Call Futurity. Made a wide and one run move against Square Eddie in the Keeneland Futurity on the synthetic surface. Has never raced on traditional dirt. Owner Zayat has a stable full of horses.


#17. Advice. Son of Chapel Royal broke maiden impressively at Arlington. Made big move in Arlington Washington Futurity before being DQ'ed. Needs to get back on the workout tab. Winstar Farm has been to the Derby for 3 straight years (Bluegrass Cat, Any Given Saturday, Court Vision) and again has some strong contenders as the calendar turns this year.


#18. Turk. Closed impressively for 2nd in maiden debut. Bob Baffert trained. Lightly raced, California has about 6 horses who are lightly raced all eligible for Non Winners of 2. Will have to play catch up on a tricky Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita.


#19. Well Positioned. Drew off by 14 lengths in 2nd lifetime start. Great breeding, was defeated by Idol Maker in career debut. Strong female pedigree.


#20. Capt. Candyman Can. Son of the undefeated Candy Ride. Broke maiden for fun by 7 lengths at Saratoga. Lost tough race in troubled trip at Arlington. Set fast pace at Churchill Downs before faltering late. Training in Gulfstream, look for him to make his final pep at the Bluegrass or Lane's End.

A few other horses to keep an eye on. Point Encounter, Hello Broadway, Atomic Rain, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy, and Beethoven.

2008 Racing to the 2009 Derby

Saturday's Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park concluded the Juvenile racing season for 2008.  With just 9 days remaining in 2008 here is one observers key race notes and thoughts on this class of 2006 from a trip, pace and speed analysis.

Hollywood Juvenile Championship:

Winner Azul Leon defeated a field that has done nothing on note since.  The winner Azul Leon toyed with this field, circling and coming from last place for the easy victory. 

Sanford Stakes:

Desert Party emerged victories on an off track.  Vineyard Haven finished 3rd with no visible excuse but would rebound with 2 straight victories.

Best Pal Stakes:

Azul Leon again circled the field and in a very controversial decision was "awarded" the victory after Kelly Leak number was put down.  One of the more competitive 2 year old stakes races this year.  Charlie's Moment, Coronet of a Baron, Azul Leon and Kelly Leak, all ran credible races with a knockdown stretch run going to Azul Leon.

Saratoga Special:

Runaway and Hide, showed a tremendous turn of speed and held back a serious challenge from Break Water Edison, who was reserved early and made a menacing move going into the turn.  Fast Early Pace and Fast late pace.  Run Away and Hide was injured and has been retired to stud.  Break Water Edison hinted that he may be something special with a nice off the pace move.  Join in the Dance proved to be just a speedball.

Hopeful Stakes:

The most interesting prep in that the 2nd place finisher Cribnote, drew more attention than the winner after the race than the winner Vineyard Haven.  Munnings drew the most pre-race hype but broke slow and finished with no late kick.  Break Water Edison was gunned from the rail by Alan Garcia and faded to finish 4th.  Cribnote looked like a winner on the turn, bolted and lost about 6 lengths and then finished with a flourish to claim 2nd.  The winner Vineyard Haven came into the race after running up the track in the Sanford Stakes with no apparent excuse.  This was one of the more bizare turnaround in recent years.  With no apparent front-runner in the field Vineyard Haven seized the lead and turned in a very fast performance.

Delmar Futurity:

The synthetic surface produced another close finish with 5 horses within 3 lengths at the finish line.  Midshipman rallied gamely in the stretch.  Beleive in Hope ran a very game race despite a wide post and making a mid race move and flattening out down the lane.  Street Hero closed with a flourish while making an inside move.

Futurity Stakes:

Charitable Man came off the pace and impressively mowed down a field that looked like it had potential at the time, but since that race has not produced on the track.  3rd place finisher Friesan Fire lost last week at the Fairgrounds as the 3/5 favorite.   Gone Astray and Girolomo both impressive maiden winners this summer failed to fire in a slow paced race early.

Arlington Washington Futurity:

Another Synthetic induced close finish with 6 horses within 6 lengths at the finish.  Terrain was moved up to first place after a double disqualification of original 2nd place finisher Advice and first place finisher Jose Adan was bumped to 2nd.  Capt. Candyman Can had a horrible trip bumped and blocked repeatedly in the stretch.  Advice ran a strong race, coming a long planned layoff after a 8 length maiden win, rated early seized the lead and may have tired late.

Kentucky Cup Juvenile:

West Side Bernie made a long, sustained bold move in the mid race and won with a lot to spare as much the best.

Norfolk:

Street Hero turned the tables on Midshipman with a hard fought win in the final 1/16th of the mile.  Midshipman was rated early and may have made his move too late.   The best effort in this race may have been turned in by 3rd place finisher Believe in Hope.  Believe in Hope raced along the rail most of the race which for much of the meet was not the place to be.  He briefly had the lead at the rail while Street Hero and Midshipman were making moves on the outside.  Believe in Hope save ground with the rail trip, but ran in the deeper part of the track and galloped out strongly.

Champagne:

Vineyard Haven romped wire to wire on the front end.  Strong performance while setting fast fraction holding off the pressure and defeating Cribnote, Breakwater Edison, Girolomo, Hello Broadway and Gone Astray.  The tough trip award goes to Breakwater Edison who was rated behind horses on the outside, made a mid race move to contention.  He went 8 wide on the turn and could have finished 2nd but was totally eased in the lane.  Gone Astray ran a credible 4th he was rated and was stuck on the inside most of the race. 

Lane's End Breeders Futurity:

Square Eddie came over from Europe and pulled away by 8 lengths, rating off a slow pace, made an explosive mid race move to take the lead going into the turn.  Pioneerof The Nile rated toward the back of the pack while making his "dirt" debut made a strong move from the backstretch to get up into 3rd going into the turn, but flattened out and finished 8 lenghts behind the winner.  The rest of this field turned in sub par performances.  Slow pace, no strong closers down the stretch.  An overall weak race and slow start of the race, strong mid pace, slow final fractions.  Very hard race to judge.

Breeder's Cup Juvenile:

Strong winning percentage by the field.  Midshipman changed previous racing tactics and went wire to wire.  Square Eddie and Street Hero went 2nd 3rd all the way around.  The tough trip award to West Side Bernie.  Stuck with the 13th post, he was forced to lay back behind the field, moved into contention had to move around a couple of tiring horses and still finished with 3 lengths of the winner on another "synthetic" induced bunched field.  Pioneerof The Nile also rated in the back of the pack, grinded his way into 5th place and then "hung" down the lane, but was still plugging away at the finish and galloped out like he wanted more ground.

Nashua:

Break Water Edison, rated in 6th place early and made a strong move to take the lead just into the stretch, opened up by 2 and held off the closing run of Hello Broadway.  Hello Broadway was rated on the backstretch, stayed close to the fast pace, got outrun when Break Water Edison got first run in the stretch and closed nicely, but never looked like a winner, could have been a deceptive 2nd place finish.

Delta Juvenile:

The Bull Ring produced an interesting result.  Big Drama, ran close to the pace, took the lead entering the turn, withstood a strong run from West Side Bernie.  Stimulus Plan looked the most intimidating in the lane.  Force 13 lenghts behind a average to average fast pace, he ran wide on both turns and closed 7 lengths in the stretch and galloped out strong.  This horse has the breeding to be a good one.  Delta has a 700 foot stretch,  the long Louisiana stretch should be more to his liking.

Remsen:

This was a Grade II race, with most of the field not eligible for Allowance NW2.  Old Fasioned was the lone speed and took the easy lead while setting 1:14 fractions for 6 furlongs.  He galloped in hand in the stretch.  This win was accomplished with the the ideal trip and set-up still have no real idea what he can handle for pace pressure and any kind of mid race or stretch challenge.  A slow pace, slow middle and fast finish is the most logical result in a slow pace race. The speed figure came back with a strong number, but I won't buy into the 100 plus figure until he accomplishes it with a little more pressure.

Cash Call Futurity:

An exciting finish between two improving horses.  A fast pace ensure the closers would prevail.  The winning move may have been made down the backstretch when Garret Gomez made a move to establish 3rd place position on the outside.  Pioneerof the Nile was hard ridden going into the turn all the way to the finish, a May foal he may have lots of upside.  He was also a little :"washy" in the post parade.  

Best Race:

Breeder's Cup Juvenile

Champagne Stakes

Overrated Performances:

Capt' Candyman Can in the Iroquis

Old Fashioned in the Remsen

Underrated Performances:

Break Water Edison in the Champagne

Believe in Hope in the Norfolk