An Unbridled's Song Look at the 2009 Derby

Among the top contenders for the 2009 Derby trail, includes a Trio of prospects sired by Unbridled's Song.  Midshipman, Old Fashioned and Silver City have shown speed, class, and strong Juvenile form.  Will they be able to progress and carry that form 10 furlongs the first Saturday in May?

Unbridled's Song is a Gray/Roan from the class of 1993 who started 12 times in his career.  His career was filled with some flashy performances, but ultimately soundness issues limited him to 12 starts and 5 wins.  His 5 wins included the Grade 1 Breeder's Cup Juvenile and Florida Derby and also the Grade 2 Wood Memorial.  

Unbridled's Song went off the Kentucky Derby favorite in 1996 and entered the derby with a record of 4 wins in 7 starts.  Speed was his calling card with with past performances showing a 4 length lead at the top of the stretch in his 5-1/2 length victory and with a 3 length lead in the Wood memorial at the stretch call before winning by 1-1/2 lengths.  His Florida Derby earned him a "Beyer" speed figure of 114.

As a sire Unbridled's Song has passed along some of his precocious speed, but has also passed along some of his "soundness" issues.  He has had success with both fillies and colts, including Breeder's Cup distaff winner Unbridled Elaine and this year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman.

In recent year's Unbridled's Song has been represented on the Derby Trail with flashy contenders including:

Song of the Sword

Rockport Harbor

Eurosilver

First Defense

Value Plus

Unbridled Energy

Half Ours

Buddha

This past spring he was represented by the filly Eight Belles who finished 2nd in the Kentucky Derby.

Despite the Breeder's Cup Juvenile victory by Midshipman.  Many racing fans consider Old Fashioned the Juvenile division leader, undefeated and untested he won the Remsen Stakes by 7 lengths.  His first 2 victories were equally impressive.  The main draw back of the Remsen, was that every horses was eligible for a NW1 other than and he was able to draw off after setting uncontested fractions on the front end.

Midshipman started his career with a win first out on the West Coast.  In the Breeder's Cup juvenile he reversed previous off-the-pace tactics and took the field by surprise with a wire-to-wire victory.  His win on the front end, was one of the few "Flag Fall to That's All" efforts on polytrack Breeder's Cup weekend.  

The juvenile was run with Midshipman, Square Eddie and Street Hero, all prominently placed and running 1-2-3 around the track.  Midshipman warmed up well and looked on the muscle in the post parade before drawing off on the wire to wire victory.

Silver City a $700,000 yearling started his career with a loss.  His most recent effort in a NW1 Allowance earned him a speed figure of 101 with a strong finishing kick down the lane.  His victory at Keeneland in his maiden win looked like he had something extra in the tank and defeated some nice runners.

Many of Unbridled's Songs best runners have developed and flashed high speed figures in dominating performances.  Rockport Harbor is the horse most similar to Old Fashioned.  "Rocky" debuted with a 8 length win at Philadelphia in September of 2004 and won his first 3 races by a combined 23 lengths.  In his 4th career start Rockport captured the Remsen Stakes Old Fashioned has picked up his 3 victories by a combined 22 lengths.

Octave began her career with a win at Churchill Downs at 4 - 1/2 furlongs and ran in 4 sprint races before stretching out and running second in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile fillies in 2006 to Dreaming of Anna.

Half Ours was another brilliant fast son of Unbridled's Song.  Half Ours broke his maiden by 10 lenghts at 4-1/2 furlongs and then captured a Juvenile stakes by 4 lengths but did not race again his juvenile season and remained injured during his 3 year old campaign.  Half Ours had a 2 demerits going against him, in addition to Unbridled's Song as his Sire, he was out of a Storm Cat mare!

Two more fast sons of Unbridled's Song.  In the winter and spring of 2002 Buddha terrorized Gulfstream Park with a devastating maiden win and Allowance NW1, then Buddha went to New York and won the Wood Memorial over a very strong field, 3 for 3  is sophomore campaign he would have been one of the derby favorites, but was scratched the week of the the derby and never raced again.  Again Buddha was out of a Storm Cat mare!

Value Plus opened his career with a 8 length win at Saratoga in his juvenile season.  He then started his Sophomore campaign with a 5 length win at Gulfstream Park, ran second in the Florida Derby.  He did not win again until winning the Artax handicap at Gulfstream Park in his 4 year old campaign.  Fast and fragile, Value Plus once again could not overcome those long legs that the Unbridled's Song's seem to carry.

• Unbridled's Song seem to fire fit, fresh and ready in their career debuts and off the shelf
  
• they  like Gulfstream Park surface
  
• Just say not to Storm Cat mares!
  
• many go on the shelf and have multiple layoff lines

Silver City and Old Fashioned figure to take the Fairgrounds and Oaklawn Park route to the Derby.  Midshipman will go by way of Dubai!

Old Fashioned is out of a Meadowlake mare, he was fast and precocious himself winning the Arlington Washington Futurity by 15 lengths and retiring 3 for 3.

Midshipman is out of  a Avenue of Flags mare.  Avenue of Flags was lightly raced and has produced some speedy but unsound horses himself.

Silver City is interesting in that he is out of Mt. Livermore, who adds a little soundness to the equation.

So while Old Fashioned, Midshipman and Silver City have impressed with gaudy wins and high speed figures.  A clean road to Kentucky may not be in the offering.  Many of the Unbridled's Songs in recent years have not been able to stand up to the training.  Trying the Big Brown route to the Derby may be the best approach.  Take December and January off, and 2 preps before the Derby.

2009 Derby Trail Graded Dollars

Last week took a look at some of the numbers for Graded Stakes Earnings for the Juvenile Crop.  This week we dig inside the road to the Derby 2009.

Surprisingly not all the stakes schedules have been set for 2009.  We will take a look at only the "Dirt" and Synthetic" races on the Schedule for the Winter and Spring of 2009.  I have included the 2 million dollar purse of the Dubai.

Total Graded Earnings in 2009:  11,600,000.  Compared to 7.8 million in 2008 juvenile earnings.  But if the dubai 2 million is throw own 9.6 million is the total.

The Breakdown in Graded Earnings by month for 2009:

January 2009:  $500,000

February '09:  $1,525,000

March '09  $ 5,050,000  (2 million Dubai)

April '09 $4,525,000

Breaking down the Graded Dollars by earnings into 3 categories

under 8 furlongs  $500,000

8 - 8 1/5  $3,550,000

9 Furlongs + $7,550,000

The "Dirt Races" still have the majority of graded earnings:

Synthetic Earnings:  $3,225,000

Dirt Graded Earnings: $8,375,000

The Derby Trail is filled with "Graded" Earnings, but the Grades of the races don't have any correlated value to the purse.  An example of this is that Tampa Bay has both the Sam F Davis and Tampa Bay Derby, the Tampa Bay Derby has a $300,000 purse while the Sam F Davis has a purse of $225,000.  Meanwhile the Holy Bull has a purse of $150,000 and is 9 furlongs.

Gulfstream has totally made a mockery of their prep races.  They start with the 9 furlong Holy Bull on January 31st.  Meanwhile the Fountain of Youth is only a mile this year and serves as the official prep for the gigantic purse of 1 million dollars in the Florida Derby.  

Look the best preps to come in Tampa Bay in 2009.  The better horses are not going to come off a layoff and run in the Holy Bull.  While the true distance horses may be reluctant and not risk losing any  Graded Earnings to a  Speedball in the mile Fountain of Youth.

Inside the numbers: Kentucky Derby Trail 2009

Just two Graded Stakes races remain on the calendar for 2008 for Juveniles.  The Delta Jackpot December 5th and Cash Call Futurity on December 20th will complete this years Graded Stakes Earnings for Derby Hopefuls.

The Juvenile Run for the Roses began on May 1st with the Kentucky Breeder's Cup Stakes.  In 2008 there are 26 Graded Stakes on the Juvenile racing calendar for Colts.

Surface

Dirt = 13 Turf = 3 Synthetic =10

Total Graded Stakes Earnings through December 1:  $6,345,030.

So Far 116 Horses have "earned" Graded Stakes Earnings (GSE).  Down the Stretch of the Juvenile season with just the Delta Jackpot and Hollywood futurity left to run the current leaders through December 1st are listed on the right.

In 2008 Dennis Of Cork earned entry into the Derby field with $165,000 in GSE.  $225,000 is usually a safe number that will qualify a runner into the 20 horse starting gate.  The top 5 runners already have enough earnings that will qualify into the 2009 Derby starting field.  Terrain can add to his $300K plus earnings on Friday at Delta Downs.  The winner of the Delta Jackpot and Cash Call Futurity will automatically receive enough Graded Stakes money to get them in the derby lottery.  

On the Filly side, Stardom Bound has over 1 million dollars in earnings an aggressive ownership group with IEAH that may be thinking "Roses" after spending 5.7 million dollars in November.  An additional guaranteed spot for 2009 is already committed to the winner of the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes in England next spring.

Digging into the numbers a little deeper.  Taking the $6,345,030 already earned in Graded Stakes races and adding in the Delta Purse of $750,000 and the Cash Call purse of $750,000 brings the total 2008 Graded Stakes money pot to:  $7,845,030.

Staying with the standard definition of a "route" race being 8 furlongs or longer.  The 2008 earnings are distributed:

Route Graded Stakes dollars:  $5,967,280 or 76% of the Graded dollars available.

Sprint Graded Stakes dollars: $1,877,750 or 24%.

Graded Stakes earnings by surface reveals the following chart:

With the Breeders Cup Juvenile being held this year at Santa Anita and the large purse of the Cash Call Futurity, this results in 56% of the Juvenile Graded Earnings being run on the synthetic surface.

Graded Stakes by Class:

Grade 1 = 7

Grade 2 = 6

Grade 3 = 13

Grade 1 races account for 26% of the Graded Stakes calendar but 55% of the Juvenile Graded earnings.

Next week we will take a look at how the 2009 run for the roses looks by the numbers from January through the first Saturday in May.

Breeders Cup Juvenile

A front-running score in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile has landed Midshipman in the role as the "Winter Book Favorite" for the 2009 Kentucky Derby.

This year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile was a very competitive by historical standards. The combined 12 starters entered the race with an overall record of 29 wins from 49 starts, for a combined lifetime win percentage of 59% this number matches the 2002 field that entered the Juvenile starting gate with a same 59% rate.  A side note from 2002 is that only Lone Star Sky from the Breeder's Cup Juvenile made the Kentucky Derby starting gate the next spring.

Street Sense's romping win in the 2007 Kentucky Derby came over 5 other horses who had been spanked in the 2006 Breeder's Cup Juvenile.  Making 2005 the most consistent or mediocre? crop in the 25 years of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile.

2006 BC to KDerby runners =6

1986 BC to KDerby runners = 5

In 24 running's of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, 1996 was the only year that has failed to garner a starter in the following year's Kentucky Derby Starting gate.  What went wrong with the class of 1996?

Boston Harbor and Gold Tribute both suffered injuries.  The rest of the field in 1996 was modestly bred and included Sal's Driver a Pennyslvania Bred, Michelle'sallhands a Florida Bred.  Ordway and Zippersup regressed significantly.

The '97 Kentucky Derby starting gate included Captain Bodgit who won the Laurel Futurity, Silver Charm who started his Sophomore campaign in February of '97.  Pulpit drew off by 7 lengths in his 3' year old debut.  

For 2008 Square Eddie and Street Hero already have the earnings, but neither has ever started on "traditional" dirt.  Midshipman has been shipped to Dubai and we have already seen that some of those horses are never heard from again.   Using 24 runnings as the benchmark, odds are at least one horse will emerge and make the 2009 Starting Gate.

The Breeder's Cup of 1986 had strong fields for both the Juvenile and Fillies.  The class of 1986 included Alysheba and Bet Twice who between them won the Triple Crown in 1987.  Both horses raced strongly into their 4 year old campaigns.  Gulch became a champion sprinter and sired a derby winner in Thunder Gulch.  Demon's Begone captured the Arkansas Derby in the spring of '87 and was the Derby favorite before bleeding in the race.  Polish Navy who played 2nd fiddle in that crop retired with a lifetime record of 7 wins in 12 starts winning a million dollars and earned victories as a 3 year old in the Jim Dandy and Woodward. The 1986 field was a very "key" race.

On the ladies side, the 1986 juvenile fillies included future Breeder's Cup Distaff winner Sacahuista, Brave Raj, Tappiano and  Saro's Brig.

With many horses bypassing this year's Breeders Cup due to the Syntheic surface, we may only see one or two horses emerge from the Juvenile as a strong spring contender.

A "future" look at the 2009 Kentucky Derby

Two of my weekly web browser bookmarks are horseplayerdaily.com and viewfromvegas.com.  Both sites post weekly updates of the latest Wynn Racebook Kentucky Derby Futures.  Since Horseracing is determined not to join in on the fun and take 15% of the action, they continue to allow Las Vegas to take 100 % of the action.  It's a great gig if you can get it!

One of my personal "bucket" list items to do is to cash a Kentucky Derby Future bet, placed before December 1st of the following year's derby.  I have been attempting this Rubik's Cube for 4 years now, (last year's bet on Referee didn't turn out so well).

The futures are not really designed to be a "value" bet, an open parimutual system with the top 200 contenders or all Triple Crown Nominated horses, could increase exposure and further brand the the Kentucky Derby experience up to 6 months, prior to the First Saturday in May.

Meanwhile, until someone decides to  up the ante at 700 Central Avenue, we can continue vicariously live the Kentucky Derby Futures through the Wynn Racebook.

As of November 10th 27 horses are listed at odds under 100-1 by Wynn Casino.  One of the 27 horses is a filly Stardom Bound.  Since the Derby Starting Gate is limited to 20 starters.  Let's take a look at the value currently being offered by the Wynn Las Vegas Race and Sports Book.

The current 2009 Kentucky Derby Future Book favorite is Midshipman at 15-1 and Vineyard Haven at 18-1.  Both are wintering in Dubai and may have only one prep before heading to Louisville.

Charitable Man a well bred Juvenile who impressed coming off the pace is 25-1.  Imperial Council who has ran just 2 races and has only a maiden win is 35-1.  Capt. Candyman Can is being offered at the low low price of 30-1.

After watching American Dance lug inward in the stretch at 3/5 in his last race, I will pass on his current odds at 75-1.  Majormotionpicture had a sharp win at Delmar this summer but seems to be a little low at 50-1.

Meanwhile Break Water Edison is well bred and has Graded Stakes earnings, he is spotted correctly at 60-1.   Cribnote, who is on everyone's trip note list after bolting the turn in the Hopeful. He is currently resting and heading to Gulfstream for a 2009 prep campaign.

Betting futures is a tricky and risky proposition.  Graded Earnings are the calling card and barring injury 5 of the positions in the starting gate may already be filled for 2009.  Midshipman, Vineyard Haven, Square Eddie and Street Hero, all have enough earnings to make the starting gate in Louisville.  With the announcement earlier this fall that the winner of a race in England will be automatically guaranteed a starting berth, that potentially leaves only 15 "open" positions.  With the Hollywood Futurity and Delta Jackpot still be be run, this could leave only 13 starting gate positions still available.

Realistically chances are one or two of the early earnings leaders will lose form or training time in the spring, but this shows how long the odds are of a horse even getting to the gate, let alone cashing a futures ticket.

Since the odds are long, you have to make a decision, bet on talent? breeding? connections?  Here are some of the possibilities for horses listed at 150-1 and higher.

Keep 'em movin Dan 150-1 - Todd Pletcher Trained, good breeding, has raced once and not been seen since.  

Map of the World.  175-1.  Disappointed in 2nd career start at Churchill Downs, could show up at the Fairgrounds next.

Silver City. 200-1.  Purchased for 700K at Auction, same connections as Alysheba, defeated a nice field at Keeneland, has been working since may run at Churchill or Fairgrounds next.

Brother Keith. 150-1 Bobby Frankel Trained.  Owned by the Ramsey's defeated nice field at Keeneland for maiden win.

Royal Vindication. 150-1.  Set fast fractions in the Nashua,  has experience, competed against top horses and still may have room for improvement.  One of the few horses who has multiple wins that is listed over 150-1.

Retap.  150-1.  Nice breeding by hot 2 year old sire Tapit, could improve. Steve Asmussen trained.

West Side Bernie.  175-1.  Has Graded Stakes earnings and drew 13 post in Breeders Cup Juvenile.  Ran evenly in Breeders Cup.  Being rested for winter campaign.

Until a pari-mutual system is implemented and more horses are allowed for wagering purposed, with the first pool being in late January, "Futures Betting" may not offer the best value.  The odds are long and they may not offer value, but anyone cashing a ticket on a horse 100-1 or higher has no reason to go to the window with their head down.  

With someone going to Vegas this week.  I'm going to place a few future wagers, in addition to the wagers I placed a few weeks ago.  A few fun tickets to keep the fires burning until most of the top contenders start working out again in late December.

An early Odds Line  For the Starting Gate based on current graded earnings would like something like this:

Midshipman 25-1

Vineyard Haven 40-1

Square Eddie 45-1

Street Hero 60-1

Break Water Edison 75-1

Believe in Hope 100-1

Pioneerof the Nile 125-1

West Side Bernie 150-1

Remaining 11 horses about 175-1 to reach the starting gate.

The 2009 Kentucky Derby Trail Begins Now

It's Official the first 2009 Kentucky Derby Trail column written by Steve Haskin for Bloodhorse has been published and the road to Louisville 2009 begins.

I'm back with a bigger larger database than last year, I now have 38 full years of Kentucky Derby Starter Statistics which is 10 more years than I had last year.  Every Starter from 1970 through 2008 has been entered.  The larger database allows a more diverse sample base to draw from.   This years posting will also be on scheduled on Fridays.  With some racing recaps coming later down the trail on Mondays.

The "modern" era of the Kentucky Derby began in 1980.  Since 1980 the smallest field of starters has been 13 in both 1980 and 1985.  In the 1970's field sizes were as small as 10 starters in 1979, 9 starters in 1976.  So the extra 10 years of data allows for larger sample sizes, the most recent data seems to indicate some of the recent changes in prepping for Kentucky.

Midshipman tops the list of earnings leaders after a front-running victory in the 2008 Breeder's Cup Juvenile.  By Unbridled's Song out of a Avenue of Flags mare, this runner limited his racing to Polytrack his Juvenile season, he is getting ready to ship to Dubai and will prepare for the spring classics with a light racing schedule.

Vineyard Haven is the only Juvenile with two Grade 1 victories.  A front running score at 9-1 in the Hopeful Stakes was followed by a runaway romp in the Champagne, cruising in after racing near the lead in a strong performance.  By Lido Palace out of an Aloha Prospector mare, the pedigree is a bit light.  Winning first time out is always a positive sign.  Vineyard Have debuted with a 4 length tally at Calder Race Course in June.  You may already be wondering how many horses have deputed at Calder Race Course and gone on to start in Kentucky?  Since 1970, 655 starters have "run for the roses" 29 of those made their maiden voyage at Calder.  Lil E Tee won the 1992 Kentucky Derby after starting his career in Miami, and Impeachment running 3rd in 2000.

Square Eddie stamped himself as a contender with a strong win at Keeneland in the Breeder's Futurity and then finished with a runner-up effort behind Midshipman at Santa Anita.  This is where it get's interesting.  Square Eddie is sired by Smart Strike the same sire as Curlin.  Curlin supposedly didn't like the Pro-Ride, but Square Eddie is a polytrack specialist? aye carumba when will the polytrack madness end.  Truth in disclosure I do not believe in poly or dirt horses.  It's racing.  First one across the line wins!

Street Hero rounds out the first "final four" horses, who have in essence already qualified for the derby all with over $200,000 in earnings.  What Street Cry lacks in overall Numbers as a Sire, he makes up for in quality, having sired Street Sense, Zenyatta, and Street Boss, his latest crop includes Street Hero who threatened to run a couple of "big races" before knocking the door down in the Norfolk out West.

The short list of possible Derby players includes some well bred Juveniles.  Fans of Empire Maker will be represented by Imperial Council who flashed speed in his debut and then scored a facile maiden victory at 3/5 in his second lifetime start.  Idol Maker lit up the board in his debut at 17-1 for Todd Pletcher and has been training steadily since, looks like he might be aiming for the Remson Stakes later this month at Aqueduct Pioneerof the Nile has also shown ability and may be ready to move forward in his next start.

Lemon Drop Kid has a trio of interesting prospects who have flashed just enough talent to indicate future big things.  Leading the way is Break Water Edison victorious in the Nashua coming off the pace, Charitable Man finished like a cool customer winning the Futurity Stakes at Belmont and don't overlook the 4th place finish by Bruce N Autumn this last weekend at Churchill Downs, he looked very green and may just be learning the game.

The brilliant but lightly raced Candy Ride will be well represented with Capt. Candyman Can winning the Iroquois and Chocolate Candy the Real Quiet Stakes.

Lightly raced youngsters who have caught this race watcher's eye include Believe in Hope who impresses with a rough trip and strong finish in the Norfolk, Hold Fast a 4th place finish out West at Delmar and working strongly of late.  Keep'em Movin Dan debuted nicely for Todd Pletcher this summer but hasn't been seen on the track since.  Gone Astray, Colonel Rutledge, Stimulus Plan and Advice have all shown ability.  

Other's to watch this winter include Regal Ransom, Elusive Bluff, West Side Bernie, Hello Broadway, Royal Vindication and 700K auction purchase Silver City.

Time to start dreaming the class of 2006 has arrived.

Oaks Day

Let's line em up for the Oaks.

Proud Spell is way overrated.  Country Star is too much a closer for me.

Golden Doc A takes the rail and finishes strong for the win.  Bsharpsonata and A to the Croft round out the tri.

I usually bet 2 horses to win.  In this race I bet Pure Clan and Golden Doc A.