The 2009 Kentucky Derby Trail Begins Now

It's Official the first 2009 Kentucky Derby Trail column written by Steve Haskin for Bloodhorse has been published and the road to Louisville 2009 begins.

I'm back with a bigger larger database than last year, I now have 38 full years of Kentucky Derby Starter Statistics which is 10 more years than I had last year.  Every Starter from 1970 through 2008 has been entered.  The larger database allows a more diverse sample base to draw from.   This years posting will also be on scheduled on Fridays.  With some racing recaps coming later down the trail on Mondays.

The "modern" era of the Kentucky Derby began in 1980.  Since 1980 the smallest field of starters has been 13 in both 1980 and 1985.  In the 1970's field sizes were as small as 10 starters in 1979, 9 starters in 1976.  So the extra 10 years of data allows for larger sample sizes, the most recent data seems to indicate some of the recent changes in prepping for Kentucky.

Midshipman tops the list of earnings leaders after a front-running victory in the 2008 Breeder's Cup Juvenile.  By Unbridled's Song out of a Avenue of Flags mare, this runner limited his racing to Polytrack his Juvenile season, he is getting ready to ship to Dubai and will prepare for the spring classics with a light racing schedule.

Vineyard Haven is the only Juvenile with two Grade 1 victories.  A front running score at 9-1 in the Hopeful Stakes was followed by a runaway romp in the Champagne, cruising in after racing near the lead in a strong performance.  By Lido Palace out of an Aloha Prospector mare, the pedigree is a bit light.  Winning first time out is always a positive sign.  Vineyard Have debuted with a 4 length tally at Calder Race Course in June.  You may already be wondering how many horses have deputed at Calder Race Course and gone on to start in Kentucky?  Since 1970, 655 starters have "run for the roses" 29 of those made their maiden voyage at Calder.  Lil E Tee won the 1992 Kentucky Derby after starting his career in Miami, and Impeachment running 3rd in 2000.

Square Eddie stamped himself as a contender with a strong win at Keeneland in the Breeder's Futurity and then finished with a runner-up effort behind Midshipman at Santa Anita.  This is where it get's interesting.  Square Eddie is sired by Smart Strike the same sire as Curlin.  Curlin supposedly didn't like the Pro-Ride, but Square Eddie is a polytrack specialist? aye carumba when will the polytrack madness end.  Truth in disclosure I do not believe in poly or dirt horses.  It's racing.  First one across the line wins!

Street Hero rounds out the first "final four" horses, who have in essence already qualified for the derby all with over $200,000 in earnings.  What Street Cry lacks in overall Numbers as a Sire, he makes up for in quality, having sired Street Sense, Zenyatta, and Street Boss, his latest crop includes Street Hero who threatened to run a couple of "big races" before knocking the door down in the Norfolk out West.

The short list of possible Derby players includes some well bred Juveniles.  Fans of Empire Maker will be represented by Imperial Council who flashed speed in his debut and then scored a facile maiden victory at 3/5 in his second lifetime start.  Idol Maker lit up the board in his debut at 17-1 for Todd Pletcher and has been training steadily since, looks like he might be aiming for the Remson Stakes later this month at Aqueduct Pioneerof the Nile has also shown ability and may be ready to move forward in his next start.

Lemon Drop Kid has a trio of interesting prospects who have flashed just enough talent to indicate future big things.  Leading the way is Break Water Edison victorious in the Nashua coming off the pace, Charitable Man finished like a cool customer winning the Futurity Stakes at Belmont and don't overlook the 4th place finish by Bruce N Autumn this last weekend at Churchill Downs, he looked very green and may just be learning the game.

The brilliant but lightly raced Candy Ride will be well represented with Capt. Candyman Can winning the Iroquois and Chocolate Candy the Real Quiet Stakes.

Lightly raced youngsters who have caught this race watcher's eye include Believe in Hope who impresses with a rough trip and strong finish in the Norfolk, Hold Fast a 4th place finish out West at Delmar and working strongly of late.  Keep'em Movin Dan debuted nicely for Todd Pletcher this summer but hasn't been seen on the track since.  Gone Astray, Colonel Rutledge, Stimulus Plan and Advice have all shown ability.  

Other's to watch this winter include Regal Ransom, Elusive Bluff, West Side Bernie, Hello Broadway, Royal Vindication and 700K auction purchase Silver City.

Time to start dreaming the class of 2006 has arrived.