Competitive Quality - Prep Races

One of the most underrated Horse Racing books on Thoroughbred Class was published by James Quinn in 1987, Class of the Field, attempted to combine observational class with speed pars to produce a class number for each horse in the race.  

One of the hidden gems of the book, was the Competitive Quality Scale which has received very little attention over the years, but 20 years later still is very useful in determining quality efforts from average performances.  

There are a couple of reasons for this.  The first is that the Competitive Quality Scale is based on observation, and everybody observes differently, and in my experiences, the observations can get a little distorted when money is on the race.   The second reason I feel why the Competitive Quality Scale failed to gain a lot of momentum was that it was hard to implement, unless you were able to visually watch every race.  

With modern technology and limiting the Ratings to Triple Crown and Stakes races, the leg-work is reduced and multiple race viewings allow for more accurate numbers.

The Competitive Quality scale attempts to classify horse races on a scale of 1-5, based on the actual running of the races, not the actual horses involved.  This is the key component of the scale, $5,000 claimers can still have Competive Quality, even though the class of the race is low.

The best chart of the book details the 18 races shapes than can determine the competitiveness of the race.  The 18 race shapes are then classified into 5  categories as follows:

1 = Non Competitive

2 = Mildly Competitive

3 = Competitive

4 = Strongly Competitive

5 = Unusually Competitive

Unusually competitive races are rare and the the Competitive Quality Scale should be shaped along a bell curve with 50% of the races labeled a 3.  Roughly 5% of the races will get a 5, and less than 5% should receive a 1.

The Triple Crown Prep Schedule provides us with a chance to visually identify the races on a Competitive Quality Scale.

Let's use some recent races to illustrate the Competitive Quality Scale.  The 2007 Breeder's Cup card is a great example of how the Competitive Quality Scale .

War Pass in the Juvenile is rated a CQ of 2.  Definition number #3 is used as a defining point.  "the frontrunner draws away from a contested pace after only a quarter of a mile or sooner, relaxes and wins unmolested thereafter."  

In the Breeder's Cup Classic, Curlin receives a 2.  Definition #4 is a pretty good match.  "An off-pace horse or late-comer catches the leader near the pre-stretch or stretch call, and following a brief challenge and and several strides, one horse draws off to win.

My favorite race of the day the Breeder's Cup Distaff is a 5.   Ginger Punches thrilling nose-to-nose, bumpin and grindin, affair with Hystericallady is one for the ages.  Definition #16 says it all "front-runners sustain a fast pace under relentless pressuer, winning a fter a bruising final quarter-mile or repeated challenge.  Often all physical energies have been exhausted.  The horses competing in the end on courage.

Breeder's Cup Mile:  Kip Deville gets a 3

Indian Blessing = 1

A more recent example is Saturday's Sunshine Millions 3-year old sprint.  Bob Blackjack set a world record on the Santa Anita Expressway.  Handicappers will be debating for weeks about his speed figure for the race.  The race itself may continue to have debates about "how good the race was, or the "class" of the race.  But the competitive Quality leaves no doubt, it was a "5", Bob Blackjack set a pressured pace and was challenged the length of the stretch, briefly losing the lead and then regaining the lead near the wire.  A rare example of speed, determination, and grittiness.  So while handicappers are debating the speed figures, and if he can stretch out, I log the race as a 5 in the CQ scale and move on.

For the Breeder's Cup the quality of the fields are still rated a 5, this is the best of the best competing for large purses.  Speed Ratings are valuable after the fact when comparing equal quality performances, a higher speed rating or faster pace may be valuable, but in the short term, the visual Competitive Quality will be used to determine above-average performances.

Let's use the Kentucky Derby as a deeper example of the Competitive Quality Scale.  The Derby field every year is strong, some years, stronger than others.  But the actual race most year's is anti-climatic.

2007:  Street Sense rates a 3.  Hard Spun took a uncontested lead through fast fractions and Street Sense battled with him for a few strides before drawing off to victory.  Hard Spun held 2nd easily.

2006:  Barbaro rates a 2.  Barbaro laid off the early flight of horses, approaches the leaders down the backstretch, took the lead entering the turn with no resistance and drew off to victory

2005:  Giacomo rates a 3.  Definition #10 is the best story.  " two or more horses off pace and late comers arrive at the leaders as they are collapsing and continue to battle one another for a 16th of a mile or so, until one of them manages to wrestle clear and win.

2004: Smarty Jones rates a 2.

2003:  Funny Cide rates a 3.

Personally I have to go all the way back to Winning Colors, Thunder Gulch and Alysheba to get a "4" on the competitive Quality Scale.

The last 5?  Affirmed and Alydar in 1978.

I would love to see a Ginger Punch, Hysterical lady, knockdown, drag down, exhausting fight to the finish in the Kentucky Derby!  My most exciting "5" in a Triple Crown race was 1989 when Sunday Silence and Easy Goer, gave each other the "eye-ball" and threw it down exchanging leads, in a bumping, all-out effort.  As Class of the field mentions "5's" are rare and should be appreciated when they happen on the big stage, thank you Ginger Punch and Hysterical Lady!

Each week this Triple Crown season, I will post the CQ number for each prep race and follow the contenders visually.  The CQ scale will isolate some of the individual performances within each of the races.

Class of the Field remains a very good source of determining the class of individual races.