State of the Starting Gate - January 28th

With Groundhog day approaching, and less than 95 days before they load them up in the Louisville starting gate, Let’s take a look at the State of the Starting gate for the First Saturday in May.

Qualified by Earnings:
War Pass
Pyro
Into Mischief
Turf War
Z Warrior
Country Star
Anak Nakal
Court Vision
Kodiak Kowboy
Colonel John

So with at least 8 spots assured of starting, and Country Star having the option to run in the Derby. The next 60 days will sort out the 13 or 14 remaining openings.

The most impressive 2-year old I saw last year was Etched, Etched is currently in Dubai and is pointing for the February 19th Sophomore debut.

My other top 3 contenders that impressed me visually with dominating class and impressive speed include Into Mischief, Colonel John and Monba. My 5th top contender is Adriano, his Sophomore debut was very impressive a few weeks back.

Until I see something that turns my head this spring, those are my top 4 contenders.

Here’s a look at the anticipated spring schedules:

Etched: 2000 Guinees, UAE Derby
Into Mischief – Robert Lewis, Sham, Santa Anita Derby
Monba: Fountain of Youth, Florida Derby
Colonel John: Sham, Santa Anita Derby?

Other contenders that intrigue me with their Juvenile form race record and breeding include:

Miner’s Claim, undefeated in 2 starts at Woodbine, this half brother to Shaniko, has recorded workouts in Florida, he is targeting the Battaglia and Lane’s End this spring. Mark Casse is the trainer. Bet down to the favorite in both his Woodbine races.

Sebastian County: A full brother to the undefeated Cactus Ridge who went 4 for 4 a few years back. He is in capable hands, and has the right running style, showed heart and grit in all 3 of his races as a Juvenile. Training at Oaklawn, look for him in the Rebel Stakes on March 15th. Hennessy is the sire is suspect at getting a 10 furlong winner, but stamina is included in the pedigree through the mare Double Park who ran 3rd in the Santa Anita Oaks.

Halo Najib received a bad ride at Churchill Downs going to the lead and pressing fast fractions. His race at Gulfstream was a clunker, they are looking to boost his confidence on February 11th with the OBS Sales Stakes on February 11th. Possibly the Illinois Derby or Holy Bull after that?

El Gato Malo, has a sprinters pedigree, but has trained forwardly since October. Undefeated son of the El Corredor has been relaxing while routing, needs to step up in class. Very nice horse, small, explosive push-button speed reminds me of Go For Gin.

Cave’s Valley will go in this Saturday’s Whirlaway. Strong routing pedigree with A P Indy and Broodmare Sire Irgun won the Wood Memorial. Horse burst onto the racing seen with an explosive move last August at Saratoga. This horse can improve and I think they will take a conservative route that gets them into the starting gate. This horse is old school his 4th dam is Miss Newcastle, a son of Coaltown. Stamina influences include Princequillo on both sides of the pedigree with 3 influences of Secretariat in the 4th generation.

Court Vision was visually impressive but very slow as a Juvenile, has a good pedigree and good connections. I need to see more speed out of this horse

Anak Nakal is trained by Nick Zito and has lost to Etched before winning the Kentucky Juvenile at Churchill Downs, has been working forwardly and has the pedigree to run all day long.

Lietentant Ron, Blackberry Road, Cowboy Cal, Globalization, Signature Move, Dixie Chatter, Z Fortune, J Be K, Maimonides, and Texas Wildcatter all have interesting pedigrees and race records that show talent.

Which of the powerful Zayat Stables will make it to the Starting Gate!
Winstar Farm has Court Vision and Colonel John
Mandella has Into Mischief and Dixie Chatter

A few thoughts on the two of the early favorites: War Pass was very fast, questionable to get the 10 furlongs, and has never had a horse look him in the eye.

Pyro: This horse is eligible for NW of 2, until he wins a 2nd race, I’m not buying into the hype, he never threatened to win in the Champagne or the Breeder’s Cup. I need to see more, and the fact that Steve Asmussen is entering both Pyro and Z Fortune in the Risen Star is not a positive sign. Pyro already has the earnings, so look for Z fortune to be well intended in that spot.

Also the Public Relations is hot and heavy on Country Star. Since 2008 is an election year. Trust me, I knew Rags to Riches, I saw Rags to Riches and Country Star is no Rags to Riches.