Cowboy Up! - Cowboy Cal

Cowboy Cal’s 3rd consecutive victory on Tuesday in the Tropical Derby should start to put him on the short list of 2008 Kentucky Derby Contenders.

As of December 24th Cowboy Cal was listed at 100-1 in the Wynn Future Book Derby Odds. Why the long odds on Cowboy Cal?

Many horseplayers have dismissed Cowboy Cal’s two dominating turf wins as “proof” he can’t run on the dirt. Does one poor start of the dirt mean that Cowboy Cal won’t be able to switch his brilliant turf form back to the dirt in the coming months?

Let’s take a look at the some of the horses, who in recent years have raced on the turf before running in the Derby:

Since 2000 there have been 148 starters in the Kentucky Derby. Of those starters 34 have raced at least once on the turf before starting at Churchill Downs. Here is the breakdown by number of starters each year:
2000 – 5
2001 – 4
2002 – 7
2003 – 4
2004 – 5
2005 – 2
2006 – 6
2007 – 2

That’s 23% of the starters in the last 8 years, if you figure that the starting gate will have 19 or 20 starters it figures that the 2008 Kentucky Derby will have at least 2 starters who will have raced at least one race on the turf. Of the leading 2008 Derby Contenders, Cowboy Cal is one of the few horses that have attempted the grassy surface.

Many may assume that many of the turf runners have failed on the turf and moved to the dirt after unsuccessful turf attempts? Not so Fast! Here’s a list of horses to have tried the turf and moved on to run well in the Kentucky Derby:

Aptitude – Ran 2nd in the 2000 Kentucky Derby
Thunder Blitz – 4th in the 2001
War Emblem – Won 2002 Kentucky Derby
Peace Rules – 3rd in 2003
Imperialism – 3rd in 2004
Barbaro – Won 2006 Kentucky Derby
Steppenwolfer – 3rd in 2006
Sedgefield – 4th in 2007

With the changing racing game of the 2000’s the most recent years are the most valid to include in this study. Charismatic in 1999 had also previously raced on the turf prior to his Churchill Triumph. That shouldn’t shock most racing fans, Charismatic had tried almost everything except free pony rides on his way to the Kentucky Derby.

So with 2 winners, 1 second, 3 thirds, and 2 superfectas in the last 8 years, chances are a turf runner or 2 will run in this year’s Derby.

The sire of Cowboy Cal is Giant’s Causeway. Giant’s Causeway was the European “iron horse” who came over and ran 2nd to Tiznow in the Breeder’s Cup Classic. Many of Giant’s Causeways runners have experienced success on the Turf. A few of his runners have been able to transfer that form to dirt. Noble Causeway has already represented Giant’s Causeway in the 2005 Kentucky Derby.

Breeder’s and owner’s have been positive about Giant’s Causeways chances of siring a Classic winner on the Dirt. Since 2004, 34 horses sired by Giant’s Causeway have been nominated to the Triple Crown.

The broodmare sire of Cowboy Cal is Seeking The Gold. Seeking the Gold ran in the 1988 Kentucky Derby and has sired recent derby starters Bob and John and Jazil , both who ran in 2006.

Cowboy Cal is trained by Todd Pletcher, annually one of the leading trainers this decade, Todd has yet to capture his first Kentucky Derby Win. He has had 19 previous starters in the Derby, none of them had previously run on the turf before running at Louisville. With 19 previous starters and failing to finish in the top 4 with 5 horses last year, maybe Todd, is ready to mix it up in 2008 with Cowboy Cal?

Visually, watching Cowboy Cal his last 3 races, he has matured and is now a better horse. Those who think just because he ran a disappointing 7th place finish in his first start sprinting. Take a 2nd look. Cowboy Cal has dominated his last 3 races, and with his pedigree - the connections, may have been looking at bigger goals than just sprinting as a 2 year old at Saratoga.

The next start for Cowboy Cal is scheduled to be the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park in February. With Tuesdays win, his price in Vegas, figures to drop.

Next week we will take a look at late developing horses. Derby Fever usually heats up in January with some impressive maiden wins.