Late Developing Derby Contenders

Derby Fever starts to hit the backstretch every January with an impressive debut, or maiden win by a first time starter. Although hope springs eternal, the reality is that horses making their debut as a 3 year old, face long odds in even making the starting gate, let alone winning the Kentucky Derby.

Last year Curlin created a buzz and his Triple Crown trail run was impressive, but in the Kentucky Derby he was 3rd beaten 9 lengths and he never threatened to win at any time in the race. Curlin is probably the best example of  a horse lacking the “experience” or juvenile form, he proved to be an immense talent, coming into Kentucky with a perfect record, and pool 3 favorite in the Kentucky Derby Futures, he clearly lacked the seasoning to be ready for a 20 horse field and pace pressure for ten furlongs.

I have data based every starting horses who has ran in the Kentucky Derby since 1981 and now have 26 years of data. The explosive growth of horses nominated to the Triple Crown and average starting size of the Derby field been consistent since the early 1980’s and now it is a forgone conclusion that 19 or 20 horses will make the field each year.

Let’s get to the data and see what kind of odds these “late developing horses” are facing in their quest for the roses.

Since 1981 473 Starters have made the Kentucky Derby Starting Gate. Of those 473 starters 25 (1%) had no racing starts as a Juvenile. Since 2000 the trend has been for trainers to have fewer starts for horses to keep their horse “fresh” for the grinding Triple Crown Trail.

Since 2000 8 of the 148 starters have had no starts as a juvenile (1%). Including at least one horse in each of he last 5 years (2003-2007) In the last five years we have seen Atswhatimtalknbout-2003 , Song of the Sword 2004 , Greeley’s Galaxy 2005, Showing Up 2006 and Curlin 2007. The trend has been for one late developer make the starting gate, as the old saying goes if you throw enough paint on the wall, some of it might stick.

Horses who have finished in the “superfecta” a top 4 finish since 1981 include: Strodes Creek 2nd in 1994, Reinvested who finished 3rd in 1982, Curlin 3rd in 2007, Pulpit 4th in 1997, Atswhatimtalknbout 4th in 2003.

When is a good month for a Kentucky Derby Contender to hit the Racetrack? Looking the the data overall from 1981 – 2007, again 473 starters. Here is a breakdown of what month each starter made their first career start:

Month of First Career Start
1981- 2007
July – 84 starters
June – 70
August – 69
October – 54

How has the Kentucky Derby Starting gate changed in the since 1990 and since 2000?

Month of First Career Start
1990 – 2007
July – 56 Starters
August – 55
June – 40
September and October 35

Since 1990 July is still the most common debut month, but August is just “1” start behind, June goes off he table and October and September have narrowed the gap on July.

Since 2000 it the racing game continues to change:

Month of First Career Start
2000 – 2007
July – 27 Starters
August - 25
September - 18
October – 18

There is less of a spread, on number of starters, with more starters waiting until August, September and October.

Still with me? Now that we know which Debut months have the most “Starters” let’s take a look at the top 3 finishers and see if any trends are developing.

Since 1981, 81 horses have finished in the money (ITM).

June has 70 starters, which is 2nd overall, but leads with ITM finishers (16).
July and October are next with 14 ITM finishers each.

Nothing real surprising- how about since 2000? The game seems to be changing in the last 8 years.

Of the 24 horses who have finished ITM since 2000, 8 of those horses made their debut in October, July has 4. The October impact has gathered momentum since 2000, with 8 ITM finishers out of 18 starters!

To recap horses running big first time out in Januaryand February may look flashy but they face long odds in even getting to the Derby Starting gate, the recent trend has seen a starter in each of the last 5 years.

Trainers seem to be holding their top Juveniles back from the starting gate, waiting until August and September for their career debut.

Beware of the October runners!

A quick list of October Debut runners for 2008 include:

Golden Yank, Monba, Into Mischief, Racecar Rhapsody, and Z Fortune.

Next Week we will introduce the "continum" theory, and how we can use it to detail "good" and "bad" derby performances.