One Bad Race - Does not spoil a career

I'm in Database Purgatory.  I'm still working on presenting the Continuum Theory and how we can use it to classify performances.  I just have to link one database to another.  Hopefully Monday we will be up and running.  Meanwhile....

Many Handicappers have dismissed Cowboy Ca as a 2008 Kentucky Derby Contender based on one bad dirt race at Saratoga.

Here is a list of Kentucky Derby Starts, who had less than a stellar start to their racing career:

Bluegrass Cat 8th by 6 lengths in his racing debut

Jazil 6th by 15 lengths

Steppenwolfer 5th by 5

Bandini 6th by 18 lengths

Monarchos 8th by 12 lengths

Real Quiet 7th by 10 lenghts

Strike The Gold 9th by 21 lengths

Ferdinand 8th by 11 lengths

Go For Gin 5th by 9 lengths

Sea Hero 4th by 13 lengths

So Cowboy Cal who debuts on the dirt and finishes 7th by 11 lengths, may have just needed the race and the switch to Turf may have just been a surface to try Cowboy Cal on.  

Notice also Todd Pletcher was the trainer of Bandini and Bluegrass Cat, who are recent derby starters with debuts that were sub-par.  

Sea Hero, Ferdinand, Strike the Gold, and Go For Gin ended up being Kentucky Derby Winners since 1981 who have had bad debuts.  Another Todd Pletcher trained horse who finished in the money was Invisible Ink who debuted with a 4th place finish 7 lengths.  "Inky" ended up on the board on Derby day at monster odds.

Think about it, horses across the country debut with sub par races and win their next race at all levels of tracks.  In fact many trainers use the the maiden race as a conditioner, or tightener or just gallop around the track to see what they have.  

It stands to reason that trainers might do the same with some of the top prospects.  Look at some of the trainers of the above horses.  Charlie Whitingham, Mack Miller, Nick Zito, Bob Baffert, they have won their share of Stakes races over the years.

Next consider the pedigree of Cowboy Cal.  the mare Texas Tammy is a 1/2 sister to Behrens, who won over 3 million dollars on the dirt a few years back.

The Broodmare Sire is Seeking the Gold.  Seeking the Gold has sired Kentucky Derby starters Jazil and Bob and John.  Seeking the Gold has also sired Breeder's Cup Distaff Winner Plesant Home and Dubai World Cup Winner Dubai Millenium.

The sire Giant's Causeway has sired better turf runners so far, but has shown that his horses seem to get better as they get older.  Overall the book is still out if Giant's Causeway can sire a 9 furlong or 10 furlong "dirt" horse.  His best progeny have been turfers in Shamardal, Aragorn, My Typhoon and Red Giant.  He gets top mares and has almost 100 foals who will be 3-year olds this year.

Todd Pletcher has stated the next race for Cowboy Cal will be the Fountain of Youth on February 24th.  If you think the Cowboy will finish 7th and not run a step, this will be a big mistake.  His last 3 races have been powerful, laying just off the pace and then winning with much in reserve.  Cowboy Cal will be a player in the Florida Prep races.  

Will he wear roses in May?  We still have over 100 days to find that out, meanwhile don't be quick to dismiss this "turf" horse come February 24th.  

With his current form, conditioning, distance breeding.  Cowboy Cal is one to keep on your watch list until Fountain of Youth day.

 

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