Statistical Ramblings on the Derby Trail

Now that Uncle Sam dam has officially passed for 2008, it's time to get ready for the First Saturday in May.

I have the trusty Past Performance Database handy with every starter in the Kentucky Derby from 1981 - 2007 locked and loaded.

First let's talk about the Big Brown Bear.  Remember wherever Big Brown goes, thats where Kent Desormeaux goes!

The Big Brown Bear not only brings a light resume into the race, he sports both turf races and dirt races to analyze.

As mentioned previously, the trend in recent years has been to see more horses starting in the derby with turf starts.  This year we have Cowboy Cal, Adriano, and Big Brown Bear, all with turf races to interpret.

One of the more interesting things to notice about probably favorite Big Brown is that all three of his career races have been "route" races.  With route races being defines as a race at one mile or longer.  Looking back since 1981 31 horses have entered the starting gate with only route races showing on their past performance lines.  Interestingly 7 of the 31 horses began their career on the turf, just like Big Brown.  Of those 7 horses, Barbaro was the most similar.

Using the continuum theory again to see how those horses ran in relation to the odds they were assigned by the betting public.

14 horses have shown a positive continuum theory with only route running lines.

2 horses have remained neutral 

15 horses have negative continuum running lines

Some recent horses who show no sprints on their past performances heading into the Derby include Barbaro, Empire Maker, War Emblem and Ten Most Wanted.

On the flip side Dispersal, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Laser Light and Curule also have only shown route races coming into the Derby.

Big Brown Bear will be very light on experience with only 3 lifetime races, with only 2 races as a 3- year old.  He will be the most lightly raced horses since Curlin the number of furlongs raced heading into the Derby.  The horse with the lighest number of raced furlongs since 1981 include:

China Visit 15.5

Disposal: 18

Pendleton Ridge: 23

Wavering Monarch: 23

Showing Up :23

Vernon Castle: 23.5

Valhol: 23.5

Desert Hero: 23.5

Curlin:  24.5

Let's examine more indepth the past performances of a couple of those horses.

Valhol is an interesting comparison for Big Brown.  Valhol won the 1999 Arkansas Derby by 4 widening length as a maiden going into the race with 2 starts as a 3-year old and the Arkansas Derby being his 3rd lifetime Start.  He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 101

Big Brown won the Florida Derby by 5 lenghts in his 3rd lifetime start and 2nd race of his sophomore campaign.  He earned a speed figure of 104.

Showing Up is also very interesting as a comparison to Big Brown.  Showing up went into the Derby undefeated and 3 for 3 in 2006.  All 3 of his starts were in his 3 year old year were very impressive, breaking his maiden by 4 and winning the Lexington Stakes by 2 lengths and coming off the pace to do so.

Showing Up ran a deceptively good race in the Derby that year, losing to his stable mate Barbaro.  Same owners as Barbaro, but different trainer in Barclay Tagg.

Big Brown will also be the first derby start for Richard Dutrow.  Dutrow is doing pretty good, he only nominated 2 horses for the Derby and Big Brown is the current favorite!

Richard Dutrow is also light on the Derby Trail the past few years with only 7 horses nominated to the Triple Crown since 2004.  The Derby Trail will be an entirely new experience with the only horse who did anything on the trail being Lawrence the Roman last year, who had a very short trip on the trail.

Already Richard Dutrow has turned some heads by announcing that Big Brown will ship to Churchill downs on April 28th, gallop around the track for a few days and then go into the starting gate on May 3rd.

A non workout over Churchill Downs is an interesting strategy, and Big Brown may enjoy the cool weather when he moves up to Churchill, but by leaving so late you do risk a slight chance of something going wrong and him not acclimating to the Louisville track.

Many things to consider when looking at Big Brown.