Breeders Cup Juvenile

A front-running score in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile has landed Midshipman in the role as the "Winter Book Favorite" for the 2009 Kentucky Derby.

This year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile was a very competitive by historical standards. The combined 12 starters entered the race with an overall record of 29 wins from 49 starts, for a combined lifetime win percentage of 59% this number matches the 2002 field that entered the Juvenile starting gate with a same 59% rate.  A side note from 2002 is that only Lone Star Sky from the Breeder's Cup Juvenile made the Kentucky Derby starting gate the next spring.

Street Sense's romping win in the 2007 Kentucky Derby came over 5 other horses who had been spanked in the 2006 Breeder's Cup Juvenile.  Making 2005 the most consistent or mediocre? crop in the 25 years of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile.

2006 BC to KDerby runners =6

1986 BC to KDerby runners = 5

In 24 running's of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, 1996 was the only year that has failed to garner a starter in the following year's Kentucky Derby Starting gate.  What went wrong with the class of 1996?

Boston Harbor and Gold Tribute both suffered injuries.  The rest of the field in 1996 was modestly bred and included Sal's Driver a Pennyslvania Bred, Michelle'sallhands a Florida Bred.  Ordway and Zippersup regressed significantly.

The '97 Kentucky Derby starting gate included Captain Bodgit who won the Laurel Futurity, Silver Charm who started his Sophomore campaign in February of '97.  Pulpit drew off by 7 lengths in his 3' year old debut.  

For 2008 Square Eddie and Street Hero already have the earnings, but neither has ever started on "traditional" dirt.  Midshipman has been shipped to Dubai and we have already seen that some of those horses are never heard from again.   Using 24 runnings as the benchmark, odds are at least one horse will emerge and make the 2009 Starting Gate.

The Breeder's Cup of 1986 had strong fields for both the Juvenile and Fillies.  The class of 1986 included Alysheba and Bet Twice who between them won the Triple Crown in 1987.  Both horses raced strongly into their 4 year old campaigns.  Gulch became a champion sprinter and sired a derby winner in Thunder Gulch.  Demon's Begone captured the Arkansas Derby in the spring of '87 and was the Derby favorite before bleeding in the race.  Polish Navy who played 2nd fiddle in that crop retired with a lifetime record of 7 wins in 12 starts winning a million dollars and earned victories as a 3 year old in the Jim Dandy and Woodward. The 1986 field was a very "key" race.

On the ladies side, the 1986 juvenile fillies included future Breeder's Cup Distaff winner Sacahuista, Brave Raj, Tappiano and  Saro's Brig.

With many horses bypassing this year's Breeders Cup due to the Syntheic surface, we may only see one or two horses emerge from the Juvenile as a strong spring contender.