Wednesday, December 03, 2008

Inside the numbers: Kentucky Derby Trail 2009

Just two Graded Stakes races remain on the calendar for 2008 for Juveniles.  The Delta Jackpot December 5th and Cash Call Futurity on December 20th will complete this years Graded Stakes Earnings for Derby Hopefuls.


The Juvenile Run for the Roses began on May 1st with the Kentucky Breeder's Cup Stakes.  In 2008 there are 26 Graded Stakes on the Juvenile racing calendar for Colts.

Surface
Dirt = 13 Turf = 3 Synthetic =10

Total Graded Stakes Earnings through December 1:  $6,345,030.

So Far 116 Horses have "earned" Graded Stakes Earnings (GSE).  Down the Stretch of the Juvenile season with just the Delta Jackpot and Hollywood futurity left to run the current leaders through December 1st are listed on the right.

In 2008 Dennis Of Cork earned entry into the Derby field with $165,000 in GSE.  $225,000 is usually a safe number that will qualify a runner into the 20 horse starting gate.  The top 5 runners already have enough earnings that will qualify into the 2009 Derby starting field.  Terrain can add to his $300K plus earnings on Friday at Delta Downs.  The winner of the Delta Jackpot and Cash Call Futurity will automatically receive enough Graded Stakes money to get them in the derby lottery.  

On the Filly side, Stardom Bound has over 1 million dollars in earnings an aggressive ownership group with IEAH that may be thinking "Roses" after spending 5.7 million dollars in November.  An additional guaranteed spot for 2009 is already committed to the winner of the Kentucky Derby Challenge Stakes in England next spring.

Digging into the numbers a little deeper.  Taking the $6,345,030 already earned in Graded Stakes races and adding in the Delta Purse of $750,000 and the Cash Call purse of $750,000 brings the total 2008 Graded Stakes money pot to:  $7,845,030.

Staying with the standard definition of a "route" race being 8 furlongs or longer.  The 2008 earnings are distributed:
Route Graded Stakes dollars:  $5,967,280 or 76% of the Graded dollars available.
Sprint Graded Stakes dollars: $1,877,750 or 24%.

Graded Stakes earnings by surface reveals the following chart:



With the Breeders Cup Juvenile being held this year at Santa Anita and the large purse of the Cash Call Futurity, this results in 56% of the Juvenile Graded Earnings being run on the synthetic surface.

Graded Stakes by Class:

Grade 1 = 7
Grade 2 = 6
Grade 3 = 13

Grade 1 races account for 26% of the Graded Stakes calendar but 55% of the Juvenile Graded earnings.

Next week we will take a look at how the 2009 run for the roses looks by the numbers from January through the first Saturday in May.






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