Sunday, December 21, 2008

2008 Racing to the 2009 Derby

Saturday's Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park concluded the Juvenile racing season for 2008.  With just 9 days remaining in 2008 here is one observers key race notes and thoughts on this class of 2006 from a trip, pace and speed analysis.


Hollywood Juvenile Championship:
Winner Azul Leon defeated a field that has done nothing on note since.  The winner Azul Leon toyed with this field, circling and coming from last place for the easy victory. 

Sanford Stakes:
Desert Party emerged victories on an off track.  Vineyard Haven finished 3rd with no visible excuse but would rebound with 2 straight victories.

Best Pal Stakes:
Azul Leon again circled the field and in a very controversial decision was "awarded" the victory after Kelly Leak number was put down.  One of the more competitive 2 year old stakes races this year.  Charlie's Moment, Coronet of a Baron, Azul Leon and Kelly Leak, all ran credible races with a knockdown stretch run going to Azul Leon.

Saratoga Special:
Runaway and Hide, showed a tremendous turn of speed and held back a serious challenge from Break Water Edison, who was reserved early and made a menacing move going into the turn.  Fast Early Pace and Fast late pace.  Run Away and Hide was injured and has been retired to stud.  Break Water Edison hinted that he may be something special with a nice off the pace move.  Join in the Dance proved to be just a speedball.

Hopeful Stakes:
The most interesting prep in that the 2nd place finisher Cribnote, drew more attention than the winner after the race than the winner Vineyard Haven.  Munnings drew the most pre-race hype but broke slow and finished with no late kick.  Break Water Edison was gunned from the rail by Alan Garcia and faded to finish 4th.  Cribnote looked like a winner on the turn, bolted and lost about 6 lengths and then finished with a flourish to claim 2nd.  The winner Vineyard Haven came into the race after running up the track in the Sanford Stakes with no apparent excuse.  This was one of the more bizare turnaround in recent years.  With no apparent front-runner in the field Vineyard Haven seized the lead and turned in a very fast performance.

Delmar Futurity:
The synthetic surface produced another close finish with 5 horses within 3 lengths at the finish line.  Midshipman rallied gamely in the stretch.  Beleive in Hope ran a very game race despite a wide post and making a mid race move and flattening out down the lane.  Street Hero closed with a flourish while making an inside move.

Futurity Stakes:
Charitable Man came off the pace and impressively mowed down a field that looked like it had potential at the time, but since that race has not produced on the track.  3rd place finisher Friesan Fire lost last week at the Fairgrounds as the 3/5 favorite.   Gone Astray and Girolomo both impressive maiden winners this summer failed to fire in a slow paced race early.

Arlington Washington Futurity:
Another Synthetic induced close finish with 6 horses within 6 lengths at the finish.  Terrain was moved up to first place after a double disqualification of original 2nd place finisher Advice and first place finisher Jose Adan was bumped to 2nd.  Capt. Candyman Can had a horrible trip bumped and blocked repeatedly in the stretch.  Advice ran a strong race, coming a long planned layoff after a 8 length maiden win, rated early seized the lead and may have tired late.

Kentucky Cup Juvenile:
West Side Bernie made a long, sustained bold move in the mid race and won with a lot to spare as much the best.

Norfolk:
Street Hero turned the tables on Midshipman with a hard fought win in the final 1/16th of the mile.  Midshipman was rated early and may have made his move too late.   The best effort in this race may have been turned in by 3rd place finisher Believe in Hope.  Believe in Hope raced along the rail most of the race which for much of the meet was not the place to be.  He briefly had the lead at the rail while Street Hero and Midshipman were making moves on the outside.  Believe in Hope save ground with the rail trip, but ran in the deeper part of the track and galloped out strongly.

Champagne:
Vineyard Haven romped wire to wire on the front end.  Strong performance while setting fast fraction holding off the pressure and defeating Cribnote, Breakwater Edison, Girolomo, Hello Broadway and Gone Astray.  The tough trip award goes to Breakwater Edison who was rated behind horses on the outside, made a mid race move to contention.  He went 8 wide on the turn and could have finished 2nd but was totally eased in the lane.  Gone Astray ran a credible 4th he was rated and was stuck on the inside most of the race. 

Lane's End Breeders Futurity:
Square Eddie came over from Europe and pulled away by 8 lengths, rating off a slow pace, made an explosive mid race move to take the lead going into the turn.  Pioneerof The Nile rated toward the back of the pack while making his "dirt" debut made a strong move from the backstretch to get up into 3rd going into the turn, but flattened out and finished 8 lenghts behind the winner.  The rest of this field turned in sub par performances.  Slow pace, no strong closers down the stretch.  An overall weak race and slow start of the race, strong mid pace, slow final fractions.  Very hard race to judge.

Breeder's Cup Juvenile:
Strong winning percentage by the field.  Midshipman changed previous racing tactics and went wire to wire.  Square Eddie and Street Hero went 2nd 3rd all the way around.  The tough trip award to West Side Bernie.  Stuck with the 13th post, he was forced to lay back behind the field, moved into contention had to move around a couple of tiring horses and still finished with 3 lengths of the winner on another "synthetic" induced bunched field.  Pioneerof The Nile also rated in the back of the pack, grinded his way into 5th place and then "hung" down the lane, but was still plugging away at the finish and galloped out like he wanted more ground.

Nashua:
Break Water Edison, rated in 6th place early and made a strong move to take the lead just into the stretch, opened up by 2 and held off the closing run of Hello Broadway.  Hello Broadway was rated on the backstretch, stayed close to the fast pace, got outrun when Break Water Edison got first run in the stretch and closed nicely, but never looked like a winner, could have been a deceptive 2nd place finish.

Delta Juvenile:
The Bull Ring produced an interesting result.  Big Drama, ran close to the pace, took the lead entering the turn, withstood a strong run from West Side Bernie.  Stimulus Plan looked the most intimidating in the lane.  Force 13 lenghts behind a average to average fast pace, he ran wide on both turns and closed 7 lengths in the stretch and galloped out strong.  This horse has the breeding to be a good one.  Delta has a 700 foot stretch,  the long Louisiana stretch should be more to his liking.

Remsen:
This was a Grade II race, with most of the field not eligible for Allowance NW2.  Old Fasioned was the lone speed and took the easy lead while setting 1:14 fractions for 6 furlongs.  He galloped in hand in the stretch.  This win was accomplished with the the ideal trip and set-up still have no real idea what he can handle for pace pressure and any kind of mid race or stretch challenge.  A slow pace, slow middle and fast finish is the most logical result in a slow pace race. The speed figure came back with a strong number, but I won't buy into the 100 plus figure until he accomplishes it with a little more pressure.

Cash Call Futurity:
An exciting finish between two improving horses.  A fast pace ensure the closers would prevail.  The winning move may have been made down the backstretch when Garret Gomez made a move to establish 3rd place position on the outside.  Pioneerof the Nile was hard ridden going into the turn all the way to the finish, a May foal he may have lots of upside.  He was also a little :"washy" in the post parade.  

Best Race:
Breeder's Cup Juvenile
Champagne Stakes

Overrated Performances:
Capt' Candyman Can in the Iroquis
Old Fashioned in the Remsen

Underrated Performances:
Break Water Edison in the Champagne
Believe in Hope in the Norfolk



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