Top 20 Contenders for January 2nd

The best thing about Freshman, is that they become sophomores.

With January 1st now behind us on the calendar we take a look at Ten Furlongs list of top 20 contenders as we start the month of January.


This year's crop has shown a lot more "speed" according to Beyer speed figures. A caution should be noted that many of the top speed figures have been earned in Maiden victories and Allowance races.


Old Fashioned won the Remsen Stakes in November with a speed figure of 96. In 2007 Court Vision picked up the Remsen victory with a speed figure of 76.


On the negative side. Pioneerof The Nile recorded a speed figure of 86 in the Cash Call Futurity, which was the slowest speed figure in some 20 years of the Cash Call/Hollywood Futurity.


Midshipman's win in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile earned a figure of 91. War Pass recorded a 113 in the same race in 2007.


Other top "figures" for this crop include Silver City's 101 in a Churchill Downs Allowance race. Point Encounter earning a 94 opening day at Santa Anita in a maiden win. Indygo Mountain earned a strong figure in his big Churchill Downs victory. Old Fashioned cranked out a pair of 101's as a Juvenile.


Before we take a look at my personal starting gate of 20 contenders. Let's talk about what my evaluation is going to be based on. In January I will take a longer term view, focusing on runners who either have earnings to make the starting gate, or contenders based on breeding and running style that might be able to reach the starting gate the first Saturday in May.


For the record I do not think a couple of the top contenders in Dubai are going to come back and be a factor in Kentucky. Vineyard Haven is a Florida bred. Midshipman is by Unbridled's Song and the heavy training in Dubai might jut do him in. I tend to like Regal Ransom more than those two high priced juveniles in the Sheikh's stable of contenders.


#1 Square Eddie. Square Eddie has the earnings, experience and foundation that a lot of the top contenders lack. Bred both top and bottom to get the 10 furlongs demanded by the Derby. Sire Smart Strike has sired champion Curlin and strong route turfer English Channel. Broodmare Sire El Gran Senor has a history of producing long distance horses on both the dirt and turf. Both horses have produced strong stoudt horses and seem to withstand training. With over $700,000 in career earnings he already has the money needed to reach the starting gate. The connections are solid. Doug O'Neill has been on the Derby Trail in recent years with Great Hunter and owner Paul Reddam has been down this road with Wilko and Great Hunter. With strong works already posted in December, Eddie should be fresh, fit and ready to start in January with the San Felipe on January 17th his first likely target.


#2 Belive In Hope. Graded Stakes experience as a Juvenile, has run against the best of his generation. Sire Thunder Gulch adds some distance breeding to his pedigree. His "Mama" Hope Rises was a Stakes winning sprinter. This pedigree has a good mixture of speed, toughness and solid racing experience to the starting gate. This horse is on the bubble right now. Having to scratch out of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile with a "fever". Last week it was revelaed on calracing.com by trainer Ron Ellis that the horse is still not on the work tab because of a bad "blood count". It's still early in January, so he can stay off the tab for another week or two, but in most cases if a horse is not on the workout tab by Mid January it's too late to wear roses. Owning connection Jay Em Ess stable has had some solid runners over the years including champion Declan's Moon a few years back.


#3 Break Water Edison. Solid pedigree, top connections and a "break-out" performance in the Nashua. John Kimmel has kept this son of Lemon Drop Kid in steady training since his win in the Nashua. With 4 races and 2 routes as a Juvenile owns a strong "training" edge over many top contenders in Florida. With that experience may opt to go straight into the 9 furlong Holy Bull at the end of January. But in the past Kimmel took the Tampa Bay route to the derby with a nice horse in Wheelaway.


#4 Silver City. 700K yearling has a 101 speed figure in his 3rd lifetime start and recently drilled 1 mile at the Fairgrounds. May see him in the LeComte. Very fast, but the Unbridled's Song breeding will be very tricky. Still an exciting contender who should love the Oaklawn surface and short stretch.


#5 Indygo Mountain. Strong Breeding. Impressive win at Churchill Downs. Owner guided Alysheba to the Derby victory in 1987. His maiden victory was one of the top 5 dominant maiden victories from this juvenile crop. Look for this long-strider at the Fair Grounds and Bret Calhoun tries to keep Silver City and Indygo Mountain separate in their races.


#6 Old Fashioned. Strong pedigreee, proven connections and fast speed figures. Looks to take the 2-start route to Kentucky through Oaklawn Park. Undefeated and yet to be challenged for the early lead. Larry Jones has been to 2 straight derbies with Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Son of Unbridled's Song will have to keep to a light training schedule and develop a quicker pace if he wants to stay undefeated.


#7 Imperial Council. Strong pedigree, lightly raced with only two juvenile starts. Bet down to 30-1 in Kentucky Derby Futures betting seems to be one of the few horses of this crop with the "it" factor. Recorded first workout on Monday 3 furlongs down in Florida. Has no Graded Stakes earnings. In the past Shug McGaughey has used the Wood Memorial as the final Derby prep, will he stay on the New York road? or will he throw a change up and point to the Florida Derby as the final Prep? Has defined a couple of Key Races. In his debut he broke slow and dueled for 6 1/2 furlongs with Hello Broadway. In his second race he defeated American Dance who came back to win his next start and Professor Z who was defeated by 7 lenghts to Imperial Council and came back to win 2 straight races.


#8 Idol Maker. Todd Pletcher trained. Regressed in Remsen Stakes after sharp debut at 1 mile. Pedigree figures to improve and has already recorded a workout at PMM. Earned a 80+ speed figure in his maiden win. Worked a nice 5 furlong week in the past week. Could be pointing to the Holy Full at 9 furlongs at the end of January.


#9 Regal Ransom. Forgotten about after Norfolk flop as the favorite. May not have liked polytrack surface when shipped across country gets a mulligan for that effort. Son of Distorted Humor was ultra impressive at Saratoga in his maiden win. Worked out three times in November before going to Dubai. He may be the horse that emerges from Dubai with the best chance.


#10 Gone Astray. Shug McGaughey trained, gained experience as a Juvenile, figures to improve at 3 with solid juvenile foundation. Great racing pedigree. With four races as a juvenile, should be able to fire a couple of strong efforts off the bench.


#11 Quality Road. Impressive maiden win and strong breeding on female side of the pedigree. Solid speed figure in debut race. Needs to hit the Derby road quickly with no graded earnings. Florida may have the deepest and most competitive group of lightly raced horses in training this winter.


#12 Stimulus Plan. Slow fused son of Jump Start should get better at 3. Mark Casse is a solid trainer. Should love the long stretch of the Fairgrounds. Closed for third in the Delta Futurity, added distance should old help horse who has 4 route races in his resume.


#13. West Coast Bernie. Has shipped and run competitively in strong Juvenile campaign. Sire Bernstein is a son of Storm Cat. Storm Cat in the male line has had a tough road to the derby in recent years.


#14. Bruce N Autumn. Dale Romans trained. Broke maiden on turf. Looked impressive in long dirt start in sprint race, strong upside. Sire is Lemon Drop Kids, who is a son of the strong stamina influence Kingmambo. Training in Florida may have to ship for a spot.


#15. Big Drama. Already has the earnings. Love the tactical speed. Has proved routing ability. Wintering in Florida. Light on the pedigree side, but have some stamina influences in his pedigree. Mare has produced 6 winners from 6 foals. In shape, has the Derby earnings. Versatile running style should have him in the hunt in all derby preps.


#16. Pioneerof The Nile. Son of Empire Maker can run all day. Dead game closer should relish a strong pace. Might only have 2 preps in Sophomore campaign. Showed a new dimension when running closer to the leaders in the Cash Call Futurity. Made a wide and one run move against Square Eddie in the Keeneland Futurity on the synthetic surface. Has never raced on traditional dirt. Owner Zayat has a stable full of horses.


#17. Advice. Son of Chapel Royal broke maiden impressively at Arlington. Made big move in Arlington Washington Futurity before being DQ'ed. Needs to get back on the workout tab. Winstar Farm has been to the Derby for 3 straight years (Bluegrass Cat, Any Given Saturday, Court Vision) and again has some strong contenders as the calendar turns this year.


#18. Turk. Closed impressively for 2nd in maiden debut. Bob Baffert trained. Lightly raced, California has about 6 horses who are lightly raced all eligible for Non Winners of 2. Will have to play catch up on a tricky Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita.


#19. Well Positioned. Drew off by 14 lengths in 2nd lifetime start. Great breeding, was defeated by Idol Maker in career debut. Strong female pedigree.


#20. Capt. Candyman Can. Son of the undefeated Candy Ride. Broke maiden for fun by 7 lengths at Saratoga. Lost tough race in troubled trip at Arlington. Set fast pace at Churchill Downs before faltering late. Training in Gulfstream, look for him to make his final pep at the Bluegrass or Lane's End.

A few other horses to keep an eye on. Point Encounter, Hello Broadway, Atomic Rain, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy, and Beethoven.