San Rafael

Square Eddie's return off a 83 day layoff highlights this year's San Rafael.  A competitive field is shaping up with some recent maiden winner's moving up in class.  Square Eddie has been training steadily since late December and his recent 6 furlong workout last weekend should have him on edge to fire a strong race off the bench.  With synthetic experience at Keeneland and at the Breeder's Cup, the surface should pose no problem for Eddie.  Graded Earnings are not needed for Square Eddie, so don't look for an all-out effort.  With Smart Strike and El Gran Senor in the pedigree he should be able handled the distance easily and he has enough tactical speed to stay behind, to what could be a very contested pace.

The Pamplemousse had a nice maiden win last out, finishing strong after running close to the pace and setting fast fractions.  Alex Solis stays aboard and cuts back to one mile with a nice 3 furlong bullet this week to ratchet that speed.

The horse that may be a little over played is Brother Keith.  He definitely is a horse to watch following his maiden win last fall.  But off the layoff, on a new surface, against horses with multiple races, he will have to be much the best and may not be ready for this level.

Fiddler's Afleet ships in from New York, seems to have tactical speed and with the Quiet American and Afleet blood, may like the synthetic surface, a quick turn of foot, if he can rate at all, he may run further than people think.

There is a lot of speed in this race.  The pace should be contested.  If Square Eddie can lay 5 to 6 lengths off the contested pace, he should be able to use his foundation and grinding speed to pick up the pieces down the lane.

Dixie Belle:

Silver City figures to be  a short price in an evenly matched field at Oaklawn Park.  Shipping in from the Fairgrounds with some nice recent workouts.  If he takes to the track, he should be able to come 3 to 4 lengths off the pace and make his run.

Spot Play:

My spot play of the weekend is at the Fairgrounds Saturday.  Dumar and Coal Baron are both over 5-1 morning lines.  I will bet both to win.