RedBoarding the LeComte

A busy week on the Derby trail.  Here are some observations on a Sunday night.

The LeComte was a strangely run race. Friesan Fire who's morning line was 6/1 was bet down to 5/2 based on some nice numbers on the Thorograph Sheets.   The race was not run to form.  Au Moon who had closed into a hot pace in his maiden win at Churchill Downs took the lead at the start and had to work to get rid of Citizen down the backstretch.  At this point Friesan Fire was in 3rd place.

On the turn Firesan Fire who refused to rate in his last race, swung out and with all the closers laying too far back was given a three length lead at the top of the stretch and was never challenged late.

The fractions were slow 24 and 48 3/5  with 1:13 and change for the 6 furlongs time.  I'm not sure if Friesan Fire improved, or was just able to lay off the pace.  When a stretch runner is on the lead for the first time like Au Moon, the results are usually not good for that horse.  

Firesan Fire should be able to keep on improving being by A.P. Indy.  The Dehere on the male side adds some speed.  His form is flattering those of Breakwater Edison and Hello Broadway who both defeated him in the Nashua.

Patena rated nicely and closed well.  But never really quickened, if they are trying to rate the horse he may have a little room for improvement.

The mystery horse is still Indygo Mountain.  As much promise as he showed in his Churchill Downs start, he broke slow and then never got involved at all.  I'm not sure how well intended he as in this spot.  If we works out in the next 7 days he's probably healthy and the race is a throw-out.  If it takes 10 days or so to get back on the track, he may start running short of time to develop his conditioning level.

Ken McPeek:

For those unfamiliar withy Ken McPeek, you better start noticing.  He has developed into one of the top trainers in the country.  This past week he turned out 3 very nice looking 3 year olds.  Theregoesjojo defeated the nice horses in Quality Road and Obligingly.  Don't discount Quality Road, Alan Garcia got into a tenacious duel with Obligingly for three calls.  Both horses may have gotten a lot out of that race.  Depending on how much time off they get both may need a month off after that hard, grueling effort.

Big Country took a rail trip and patient ride from Kent Desourmeaux to a win on Thursday at Gulfstream.

Danger to Society made it two for two with a nice win on the split have of the allowance race on Thursday.  The Danger to Society race was much more impressive for Danger to Society than Big Country win.  Idol Maker took the lead and was dogged most of the way around the track, Idol Maker may need a sprint race to develop some of that speed.  He has started out his career with 3 straight routes.

Right now I would rank the McPeek runners.  JoJo, Danger to Society and then Big Country.

Meanwhile out West Bob Baffer had a horse (Turk) at 2/5 who was nipped on the wire by a solid colt at 7 furlongs trained by Dick Mandella.

I'm surprised at trainers running their horses at 7 furlongs.  Both Turk and Quality Road are quality movers, both set tremendous fractions, and both suffered losses late in the stretch after setting rapid fractions for 6 furlongs.  In general the 7 furlong races are very demanding.  When you lose them, they left a lot on the track and did not get the win.  I would point Quality Road to the Gotham and possibly a rider switch.  Alan Garcia has Break Water Edison, Charitable Man, Quality Road all lined up as possible rides.

Workouts:

Getting back on the Work Tab last week was Shug's very nice colt Imperial Council who worked out twice on the week.  On the shelf since late summer, looks like he still about 3 works away from a race. 

Still Absent from the Workout Tab?  Charitable Man, Gone Astray.  Also Point Encounter has not worked out since his win on December 26th at Santa Anita.  When horses start going 15 days away from working out in January it's not a good sign.

Racing Schedule:

Here is the latest Break down on some of the early season targets:

Next Saturday in the San Rafael.  Bobby Frankel thrown maiden winner Brother Keith into the fire against Square Eddie who has been working nicely out west.  Expect a small field in the San Rafael.

Break Water Edison and Hello Broadway will be matched up possibly for the third time in the Hutcheson on January 30th.  Watching them develop over the next 3 months could be something, both have a strong bottom, nice trainers and recent workouts.  Maybe Imperial Council or will Shug try to point for  a NW of 2 at Gulfstream

Big Drama is going to crank it up on January 31st in the Holy Bull and possibly West Side Bernie?

Risen Star next for Firesan Fire, Southwest Stakes will get Old Fashioned.

Silver City is pointing for the Dixie Belle this Friday at Oaklawn.