Wining Early: First or Second Start

Well the Triple Crown Prep season must be upon us, we have a 5 horse field signed up for the Robert Lewis and a small field for the Swale Stakes.  With Graded earnings at a premium this year this is very surprising.

Since 2 of the 5 starters are going to receive heavy support at the betting windows this Saturday in the Robert Lewis, let's look at the recent maiden winners Crown of Thorns and Coast Guard.

Both these horses broke their maidens on their 3rd attempt.  Let's take a look at all the Derby Starters who have started since 1981.

Again 473 starters in the Kentucky Derby since 1981.  Of those 199 starters broke their maiden as a First Time Starter (FTS).  Second Time Starters (2TS)accounted for 132 of the Starters since 1981.  That's 70% of the starters since 1981.

Let's redo the numbers since 2000 and see what the numbers are:

148 starters from 2000-2007.  Of those 60 were FTS, and 50 were 2TS for a 74% of the starting gate since 2000.

This percentage is going up I believe for two reasons.  First the quest for the undefeated horse, the public is is love with this type of horse, witness Smarty Jones and last year Curlin.  Secondly with few starts, trainers are waiting until further in the fall, which we saw last week in the average month of first start becoming later this decade.  

How does this work with the continuum theory?  Well of the 199 First Time Starters, only 60 show a positive continuum.  Could mean they are being overbet because they won early?

Taking a look at the 27 years of winners in the data, 9 of the last 27 winners won as FTS.  9 won as 2nd time starters.  So they are winning at a very close correlation of the number of starters. 70% starters, 67% winners over the last 27 years.

How will this effect Crown of Kings and Coast Guard?  Well the good news is that Strike The Gold, Go For Gin and Alysheba all won the derby after winning their 3rd lifetime start.  

Winning as a FTS or 2TS does show a class edge and this is very helpful in fighting through the pecking order every January and February on the Derby Trail.