Maiden Win Sprinting or Routing?

A full field is set to run in Saturday's Risen Star Stakes.  Who has the edge, horses who broke their maidens sprinting (Pyro) and were then stretched out, or late developing routers like Visionaire who scored impressive maiden wins routing?

Let's look at the some of the numbers from the past 26 years in the Kentucky Derby Past Performance Database.

Again 473 starters in the study.  Of the 473 derby starters, 125 broke their maiden in a one mile or longer race.

Of those 125 horses who registered first career victories at one mile or longer, 56 had a positive continuum.

What about horses with multiple sprints before routing?  Bonanza who is making his 6th career start in the Risen Star did not have his first route start until start number five.  This pattern is not uncommon of the 473 starters since 1981, 151 horses did not have their first route start until their 5th start.  What about a recent trend?

Since 2000 148 total starters.  Of those only 28 waited until their 5th start before recording their first one mile journey or longer.  This is a substantial training switch in a short period of time.  33% for the past 26 years and only 19% of the horses with this pattern in the last 7 years.

The trend of the millenium is to have fewer total starts and more route starts.  Such a dramatic shift goes against many strong 2 year olds of years past.  

Look at some of these examples:  

Both Easy Goer and Sunday Silence both had 4 sprints before their first route.

Sunny's Halo 7 sprints before his first route.

Real Quiet 5 sprints before first route.

Secretariat 6 sprints before first route.

Cannonade 10 sprints before first route.

Foolish Pleasure 6 sprints before first route.

Affirmed 7 sprints before first route.

For many years the the development of 3 year olds, was multiple sprint races and developing horses in those races and then stretching out that speed late in the 2-year old season or early in their sophomore season.

Then starting in 2000

Fusaichi Pegasus 2 sprints then routes

Monarchos 3 sprints then routes

War Emblem no sprints

Funny Cide 2 sprints

Smarty Sprints 2 sprints

Giacomo 1 sprint

Barbaro 0 sprints

Street Sense

Look at some of the starters in this weeks Risen Star:

Signature Move - 1 sprint

Z Fortune - 1 sprint

Visionaire - 1 sprint

Other horses in this weeks Futures pool:

Anak Nakal - 1 sprint

Colonel John - 2 sprints

Cowboy Cal - 1 sprint

Etched - 1 sprint

Horse Racing is becoming like the NFL, if a one-back team wins the Super Bowl, the next year all the teams switch to a one-back offense.

In recent years, the trend has become one or 2 sprints, less races for Juveniles, only 2 preps in the spring.

For me the most interesting running line this weekend will be the cut back of Into Mischief to 7 furlongs after stretching out to 8.5 furlongs in the Cash Call Mile.

Richard Mandella is one of the few "old" school trainers left and may be going a little different route with Into Mischief.  Taking a speed horse and running him in sprints may be the west way to go, keep him fresh, sharpen the speed and then look at the long distance workouts in the morning to develop the stamina.

Some of the large "corporate" stables, like Bob Baffert, Todd Pletcher, and Steve Asmussen are taking some of the fun and individuality of the sport, part of what makes Seabiscuit such a popular book and movie was the character and role that Tom Smith played in the story.

Should be an exciting Risen Star, Pyro may not be trying because he already has the earnings.  But Visionaire, Signature Move, Z Fortune and Bonanza all are trying to get the $180,000 in Graded Earnings that goes to the winner.