With the Lane's End yesterday, prep season hits full stride in the next 3 weeks. No more Derbies being run at 1 1/16 miles. The speed and class of this crop will start to sort itself out.
The Florida Derby winner will be highly regarded come Derby day. This year's Florda Derby will feature some speed, Big Brown, some mystery, Tomcito, and some improving horses in Elysium Fields, Cool Coal Man, and Hey Bryn, and the Smooth Air continues to train nicely as well and may be sitting on a big effort.
A few random thoughts as we get ready for the Florida Derby.
Big Brown and Tomcito are putting all their eggs in one basket a top 2 finish will be required if they want to make the derby field.
Make no mistake about it, Adriano will run in the Derby, an improve son of A P Indy in late March is always a good thing, and I would train right up to the race. Graham Motion is one of the best in the game in getting horses ready for big days and long races.
Pyro is a one run closer, who seems to be holding form. This lightly framed colt, is a little on the small side I'm not sure how much improvement there is in this horse. Right now until 3 or 4 more horses step up, it still puts him in with a big shot.
Elysium Fields is the real deal. This horse since has been training super for 5 weeks now, his last workout, galloping out 7 furlongs in 1:26. A son of El Prado out of a Silver Hawk mare. This is a serious horse getting good at the right time and with a Derby winning trainer. Edgar Prado is holding a good hand with Adriano, Tomcito and this horse right now.
The Blue Grass is shaping up as a good field. Pyro, Monba, Cowboy Cal, Visionaire, let's hope it doesn't fall apart like last year.
Miner's Claim ran huge yesterday in the Rushaway. A six month layoff, slow fractions and forced to the lead in a non speed race. If he works back in the next 7 days, let's hope they go on to Kentucky, otherwise this horse will be a serious horse for the Preakness and Belmont. Take the Illinois Derby route and he could be sitting on a peak effort come Derby Day.
Colonel John, and El Gato Malo are still some serious horses out west, frequent works, long gallops and still pointing towards the showdown on April 5th. Still not a lot of speed and the winner will still be going to Louisville with small fields and slow paces in all the preps, how they react to a fast pace and large field will still have to be answered.
Colonel John, Elysium Fields, El Gato Malo, all have room to improve as well as Pyro and Visionaire, Miner's Claim and Adriano. None compare to Street Sense, Hard Spun and Any Given Saturday last year.
I still feel Into Mischief, Miner's Claim and Colonel John are the class of this year's crop.
Post position may be the key to the Florida Derby.
With War Pass galloping yesterday, it's a good sign for a horse who lost a lot of luster in the past week. Everybody has jumped ship. This horse needs a couple of sharp workouts in the next couple of weeks, and a strong Wood Memorial run to regain some of the bandwagon.
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