The Big Brown Bear returns in Florida Derby

"Wherever Big Brown goes, that's where Kent Desourmeaux goes"

The Big Brown Bear will be in Florida on Saturday and so will Kent D.  This year's 1 million dollar Florida Derby has the star attraction even with Juvenile champion War Pass, skipping the race for the Florida Derby.

First let's start with the post.  The 12 hole is very hard to win out of, and everybody knows about Barbaro being the last horse to win from the outside post going 9 furlongs in a Graded Stakes race.

Is Big Brown is setting up to be the hero on Saturday?  Let's be realistic over the past 20 plus years I have seen many Big Browns, flashy PP's, good breeding, and most of the them go by the wayside.  Remember Deadly Dealer last year wins a monster prep allowance race and then goes way up in class and gets trounced.

I'm torn on Big Brown, visually he has been very impressive, the long loping stride, the gearing down in both races, the quick turn of speed, these are all assets that he possesses.  But the racing experience, being lightly raced and known foot problems.

Personally if this horse wins the Kentucky Derby, it will be one of the worst things that can happen the to the Triple Crown Trail.  Big Brown did not even work out in January, only 3 lifetime races only one Graded Stakes going into the Derby would be high odds to overcome.

In some ways I want Big Brown to win on Saturday, I will not be wagering, because of all the unknown angles in Tomcito, Fierce win, Smooth Air training up a storm this race would be a tough race to figure even if Big Brown.

So if Big Brown wins out of the 12 hole and goes to 3 for 3.  This horse will be the toast of Kentucky.  What can Brown do for you will be the headline all week leading up to the Derby, t'shirts, fan clubs the whole nine yards.  The public loves the mystery horse, they love undefeated horses and they will eat Big Brown up.

One of the many things I have learned through the years is that other trainers and owners don't like to get upstaged.  With Dutrow saying "if Big Brown can't defeat these types of horses, then Big Brown isn't what we think he is"  very bold and maybe unwise, if any one of 2 or 3 horses send to the lead then Big Brown could have himself 4 wide.  Big Brown doesn't need to be on the lead, but going 9 furlongs at Gulfstream, especially if they shave the track and have it all spruced up for speed it could be trouble.

So let's sit back and see what the Big Brown Bear does on Saturday!

Notes:

War Pass returns to the work tab first work since the Tampa Bay Derby, this is not good only 2 works in the last month?  and no more scheduled works until the Wood Memorial.  This horse was tired in the Tampa Race and one work in 2 weeks is not going to get this horse ready.  The Wood is shaping up to be  a small field but if Gayego goes in that race he could have a huge shot.

Dennis of Cork's decision to skip the Wood and point to the Illinois Derby sounds like he is ducking War Pass and a few other horses, if they are ducking already, thats not very confident going into Kentucky.  This horse has an unbelievable closing kick, but he is not in my top 10 yet, still another lightly raced, under trained horse, who is going to be thrown into a 20 horse meat grinder in 36 days.