Sunday, March 30, 2008

The Big Brown Bear Florida Derby Romp

Wherever Big Brown goes, Kent D goes.  Next Up Louisville for the Big Brown Bear!  Big Brown justified the hype on Saturday with an impressive, take charge from the start, come in from the outside run in the Florida Derby.


Let's Start with the CQ score.  Overall this has to be a 3.  Could be a borderline 4, the fractions were fast for the quarter and the half and basically the Big Brown Bear ran them off the track.  No late pressure and very little resistance after the turn makes it a final grade of a 3.

The Big Brown Bear was visually impressive and his raw speed for the first half mile, basically ran most of the horses with no chance to close in the Florida heat.  Again the most discerning part of this race and this year's Triple Crown Trail in particular is the lack of a Competitive Race or CQ score on any level.

In every prep the winning margin or top 2 horses have been well clear of the rest of the field.  Denis of Cork, Sierra Sunset, Cool Coal Man, Hey Bryn, Big Brown, Adriano, every horse has dominated in the victory and we have seen very few races in double with a 1/8 of a mile to go.  The West Coast races have been average, but the slow paces and small fields and make any kind of analysis futile. 

 This weeks Santa Anita Derby should show us a good race but the fractions should be slow, with a sprint to the end by Colonel John, El Gato Malo, Georgie Boy and Signature Move.

War Pass could romp in the Wood, or could fade after a half a mile, if he does score by 2 plus lengths it does set up a very intriguing Derby run with Big Brown and War Pass for the first half mile.

For now let's savor the Big Brown Bear, later in the week we will break down some possible flaws in the resume.




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