A "future" look at the 2009 Kentucky Derby

Two of my weekly web browser bookmarks are horseplayerdaily.com and viewfromvegas.com.  Both sites post weekly updates of the latest Wynn Racebook Kentucky Derby Futures.  Since Horseracing is determined not to join in on the fun and take 15% of the action, they continue to allow Las Vegas to take 100 % of the action.  It's a great gig if you can get it!

One of my personal "bucket" list items to do is to cash a Kentucky Derby Future bet, placed before December 1st of the following year's derby.  I have been attempting this Rubik's Cube for 4 years now, (last year's bet on Referee didn't turn out so well).

The futures are not really designed to be a "value" bet, an open parimutual system with the top 200 contenders or all Triple Crown Nominated horses, could increase exposure and further brand the the Kentucky Derby experience up to 6 months, prior to the First Saturday in May.

Meanwhile, until someone decides to  up the ante at 700 Central Avenue, we can continue vicariously live the Kentucky Derby Futures through the Wynn Racebook.

As of November 10th 27 horses are listed at odds under 100-1 by Wynn Casino.  One of the 27 horses is a filly Stardom Bound.  Since the Derby Starting Gate is limited to 20 starters.  Let's take a look at the value currently being offered by the Wynn Las Vegas Race and Sports Book.

The current 2009 Kentucky Derby Future Book favorite is Midshipman at 15-1 and Vineyard Haven at 18-1.  Both are wintering in Dubai and may have only one prep before heading to Louisville.

Charitable Man a well bred Juvenile who impressed coming off the pace is 25-1.  Imperial Council who has ran just 2 races and has only a maiden win is 35-1.  Capt. Candyman Can is being offered at the low low price of 30-1.

After watching American Dance lug inward in the stretch at 3/5 in his last race, I will pass on his current odds at 75-1.  Majormotionpicture had a sharp win at Delmar this summer but seems to be a little low at 50-1.

Meanwhile Break Water Edison is well bred and has Graded Stakes earnings, he is spotted correctly at 60-1.   Cribnote, who is on everyone's trip note list after bolting the turn in the Hopeful. He is currently resting and heading to Gulfstream for a 2009 prep campaign.

Betting futures is a tricky and risky proposition.  Graded Earnings are the calling card and barring injury 5 of the positions in the starting gate may already be filled for 2009.  Midshipman, Vineyard Haven, Square Eddie and Street Hero, all have enough earnings to make the starting gate in Louisville.  With the announcement earlier this fall that the winner of a race in England will be automatically guaranteed a starting berth, that potentially leaves only 15 "open" positions.  With the Hollywood Futurity and Delta Jackpot still be be run, this could leave only 13 starting gate positions still available.

Realistically chances are one or two of the early earnings leaders will lose form or training time in the spring, but this shows how long the odds are of a horse even getting to the gate, let alone cashing a futures ticket.

Since the odds are long, you have to make a decision, bet on talent? breeding? connections?  Here are some of the possibilities for horses listed at 150-1 and higher.

Keep 'em movin Dan 150-1 - Todd Pletcher Trained, good breeding, has raced once and not been seen since.  

Map of the World.  175-1.  Disappointed in 2nd career start at Churchill Downs, could show up at the Fairgrounds next.

Silver City. 200-1.  Purchased for 700K at Auction, same connections as Alysheba, defeated a nice field at Keeneland, has been working since may run at Churchill or Fairgrounds next.

Brother Keith. 150-1 Bobby Frankel Trained.  Owned by the Ramsey's defeated nice field at Keeneland for maiden win.

Royal Vindication. 150-1.  Set fast fractions in the Nashua,  has experience, competed against top horses and still may have room for improvement.  One of the few horses who has multiple wins that is listed over 150-1.

Retap.  150-1.  Nice breeding by hot 2 year old sire Tapit, could improve. Steve Asmussen trained.

West Side Bernie.  175-1.  Has Graded Stakes earnings and drew 13 post in Breeders Cup Juvenile.  Ran evenly in Breeders Cup.  Being rested for winter campaign.

Until a pari-mutual system is implemented and more horses are allowed for wagering purposed, with the first pool being in late January, "Futures Betting" may not offer the best value.  The odds are long and they may not offer value, but anyone cashing a ticket on a horse 100-1 or higher has no reason to go to the window with their head down.  

With someone going to Vegas this week.  I'm going to place a few future wagers, in addition to the wagers I placed a few weeks ago.  A few fun tickets to keep the fires burning until most of the top contenders start working out again in late December.

An early Odds Line  For the Starting Gate based on current graded earnings would like something like this:

Midshipman 25-1

Vineyard Haven 40-1

Square Eddie 45-1

Street Hero 60-1

Break Water Edison 75-1

Believe in Hope 100-1

Pioneerof the Nile 125-1

West Side Bernie 150-1

Remaining 11 horses about 175-1 to reach the starting gate.