Speed Figure Progression in Kentucky Derby Starters

The progression of speed figures as horses lead up to the Kentucky Derby gained greater scrutiny in recent years, most of that discussion has centered on a certain crop being "slow" or how many horses have earned 100+ Beyer Speed figures going into the Derby.  

"Beyer" speed figures were introduced into past performances for the Kentucky Derby for the first time in 1992.   Beyer speed figures have generated lots of online discussions the past few years.  Some of those discussions focus on "Synthetic" figures are too low, a second concern has been that Beyer speed figures do not account for pace.  The third issue has been that some figures are arbitrarily adjusted to a projected speed figure, if the number does not appear to be in-line with other performances.  A 4th issue has been Beyer re-adjusting speed figures at a later date ala Summer Doldrums a few years back when he subsequently did not re-produce a high figure in his next few starts.

For purposes of Speed Figure Progression in developing three year olds, and specifically three year olds who later make the Kenttucky Derby Starting gate, I will only focus on the number that was posted in the Daily Racing Form.

Many different theories have been proposed about speed figure development, the "bounce" theory, pairing or matching a high speed figure and then regressing in the next start.  To start the discussion I wanted to get some of the basic data into a spreadsheet and start looking at some of the numbers.  This is hopefully the first in the series of analysis of Speed Figure Development that hopefully I can combine Breeding and age of the horse later into a more thorough analysis of Speed Figure progression.

Since I have no pre-conceived ideas of what the average speed figure is a for a Derby Starter and what that progression has been in the past, I needed to develop some guidelines to start the discussion.

First, since I have every horse who has started in the Kentucky Derby in a Database since 1970.  I then isolated every Kentucky Derby Starter since 1992 the year Beyer speed figures were introduced into the Past Perforance lines.  I then entered every speed figure for every horse, start by start into an excel spreadsheet.  Example  Big Brown last year got enered as 90, 106, 106.  In his first lifetime start he ran a "90" Beyer, in his 2nd and 3rd lifetime start he ran 106 Beyers.  I entered this for every horse who has started in the Derby since 1992.  For horses who race 3 1/2 or 4 furlong races, or races in Europe when they do not have a speed figure, I left that start number blank.

Here are the results for the Average Speed Figure obtained by all Kentucky Derby Starters since 1992:

1st Start:  69.31

2nd Start: 78.95

3rd Start: 82.74

4th Start: 85.69

5th Start: 88.85

6th Start: 90.70

7th Start: 91.80

8th Start: 93.67

9th Start: 93.16

There is a steady progression and improvement for Beyer speed figures in each start up until the 9th start, for all Derby Starters since 1992.  I would not have expected the steady upward swing since this encompasses 16 years of racing and over 280 starters at over 30 racetracks on Dirt, Turf and Synthetic surfaces.  Notice the big improvement in 2nd time starters from First Time Starters in this group of starters, nearly a 9 point increase in the average speed figure.

Since Averages can be tilted by high or low numbers in a small group of horses, I then had excel calculate the median for each start number.  The median is calculated as half the speed figures being over a certain number and half being under a number and can smooth out the high and low speed figures.

1st Start: 70

2nd Start: 80

3rd Start: 84

4th Start: 88

5th Start: 90

6th Start: 93

7th Start: 93

8th Start: 94

9th Start: 92

What's interesting here is that the median is actually a little higher in the 6th, 7th, 8th start than the average.  This is logical in that we are working with a specific subset of horses, which is Kentucky Derby Starters, a horse cannot reach the gate without being competitive at a certain speed against a high class of horse.  The 2nd explanation is that horses could possibly being starting to peak or gain more consistency after 4 or 5 races.  A more cynical analyst could suggest that the "Beyer Boys" are projecting high speed figures for these races and the monster feeds itself.  That will be looked at in the future, for now we are sticking with the facts.

Let's take a look at the Max Speed figures by start since 1992.  This will show which start number horses have popped some pretty impressive "Beyers".  I will also put a "face" to some of the numbers by listing the horse who achieved that figure in that Career Start Number.

1st: 107   - Pulpit in 1997 blew away a maiden field at Gulfstream Park by 7 lengths

2nd: 108-  Pulpit blazed again in his 2nd lifetime start at Gulfstream going 1 mile and 16th

3rd: 112 - Indian Charlie in 1998 one mile allowance race at Santa Anita

4th: 111 -  Indian Charlie in the Santa Anita Derby in his 4th lifetime Start

5th: 120 - Bellamy Road freaking in the wood in 2005

6th:  114 - Unbrided's Song in the Florida Derby in 1996.

A few observations about these six high speed figures.  All four of the horses above were Kentucky Derby Favorites, all four of the horses lost.  Did they peak too soon?

Secondly all four were virtual wire to wire winners.  Can a closer obtain a high speed figure?  Do horses freak on the front end?  

Now that we have seen some of the Fastest horses by career start number.  Let's take a look at some of the horses who took longer to develop.

Sweetnorthernsaint started his career with a "12" speed figure in his debut.

Real Quiet earned a 74 in his 2nd start

War Emblem a 83 in his 3rd lifetime outing

Lawyer Ron earned a 84 in his 4th career start

Eventually with a separate subset of starters we could compare Kentucky Derby Starters against other 3 year olds, or a group of 4 year olds.  Many studies could be broken into sub groups to determine any types of speed figure progression as a horse matures on the road to Kentucky.

Let's take a look at some recent maiden winners and compare them to horses in the past with similar Speed Figures.  Opening day at Santa Anita Point Encounter earned a "Beyer" speed figure of 94. 

Since 1992 14 horses have debuted with a Beyer speed figure of 94 or higher and reached the starting gate.  Again we can only look at the horses who achieved high speed early and made the starting gate, not the horses who fell by the tracks on the way to Louisville:

Below are the horse with their Debut speed figure along with their 2nd lifetime start speed figure:

Horse Debut 2nd

Liquidity 94 59

Curlin 101 97

Showing Up 97 100

Spanish Chestnut 94 84

High Fly 97 94

Birdstone 99 78

Lion Heart 96 103

Funny Cide 96 103

Fusaichi Pegasus 95 95

Pulpit 107 108

Diligence 95 91

Afternoon Deelites    99 101

Holy Bull 101 91

Disposal 97 99

Six of the 14 horses improved in their 2nd lifetime start.  Two horses Fusaichi Pegasus and Funny Cide ended up winning the Kentucky Derby.  It will see how Notonthesamepage progresses in his next start after earning a 115 speed figure in the Spectacular Bid Stakes last weekend.

Can any conclusions be drawn from this limited subset of numbers?  I think the most surprising scenario is that there is up to a 10 point jump on average in horses 2nd lifetime start.  In the future, I will revisit this study with the races being broken into what age and what time of year did they achieve these speed figures.

Since Beyer speed numbers are projected there may be a bias against lightly raced horses and many speed figures for the Maiden and Allowance races are slower than if the horse were to achieve the same final time on the same day in the same distance of race.

There may be such a thing as too fast too early, many horses will multiple high speed figures back to back, failed to produce the same effort in the Kentucky Derby itself.

Spectacular Bid and Count Fleet recap:

This past weekend marked a couple of stakes races for newly turned 3 year olds.  The Spectacular Bid stakes at Gulfstream Park featured a coming out party for Notonthesamepage who absolutley freaked and ran a 1:08 and change for 6 furlongs.  I was not overly impressed with the field going into the race, but Notonthesamepage was never in doubt.  After working a whole in the wind for over a month in Florida, he seems to be going good and the next stop is the mile distance of the Fountain of Youth.

Todd Pletcher unveiled Checklist who ran 6 furlong in 1:10 and change in hand.  Very impressive and jockey Johnny V was sitting very chilly the entire race.  His development will be interesting.  Todd Pletcher after many years of watching his 2 year olds burn out, has kept some of his top horses in the barn the past couple of years and waited for winter to bring them back.

Meanwhile anyone who thinks Haynesfield is going to make the Derby or even be a factor in the race may want to rethink that.  A slow final time, slow fractions and weak field.  Add in the Speighstown breeding and you have a nice horse, but not Kentucky material.

The LeComte:

the first Graded Stakes for Sophomores is run this weekend down in the Swamp.  Past history suggests that this race is usually not a factor in determining the Kentucky Derby field.  But this year does feature some very promising breeding and training connections.

Friesan Fire and Indygo mountain are both sons of A. P. Indy.

Au Moon is by Malibu Moon, who is a son of A. P. Indy

Patena has A. P. Indy as a Broodmare Sire

Dynamic For is a son of Dance Master out of  Dynaformer mare.

Very strong breeding for a G3 in early January.

Indygo Mountain has recevied the most hype.  His 6 length victory at Churchill Downs in November put him on many top 10 derby lists.  Purchased for 600K at the Keeneland September yearling sale he closed for 2nd in his career debut.  In his 2nd race he stretched out while running outside horses and galloped out very nicely for trainer Bret Calhoun.  A minor setback caused him to scratch a few weeks ago in the race won by Uno Mas over Friesan Fire.  

Au Moon is a very interesting horse a very nice win at a mile and 16th and now cutting back to 1 mile, he gets the speed to run at and was bet down to 12-1 in the race won by Indygo Mountain Race 2 races back finishing 10th by 16th lengths.

Dynamic Force won a turf race in his last start at the Fairgrounds.  His first two races were on the synthetic surface at Woodbine, with 3 workouts since his last race and Jesse Campbell up, I expect him to run a strong race.

Patena is another Woodbine shipper, first race on Synthetic.  By Seeking The Gold he may like the dirt surface.  His Display win in his last race was a hard fought win over a filly Hooh Why.  Three of his four lifetime races have had 10 or more horses.  His seven furlong win in November was one of the more impressive performances by a Juvenile at Woodbine this fall.  

I expect Indygo Mountain to win.  Look for the two Canadian shippers to run very well this Saturday.